tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post3109248637451077397..comments2023-10-20T18:03:01.821+09:00Comments on GlobalTalk 21: Containing Novel Influenza (A/H1N1): A Success Story Buried under the RubbleJun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-75405404338635523432009-06-06T17:11:57.131+09:002009-06-06T17:11:57.131+09:00Janne: My virtual claps tire only my fingers.Janne: My virtual claps tire only my fingers.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-17165467230055027052009-06-06T17:09:47.382+09:002009-06-06T17:09:47.382+09:00Joe: thanks for the information and your personal ...Joe: thanks for the information and your personal assessment. I side with Janne on your last point though. A couple of more points that I think are relevant to the considerations of the authorities in crafting and implementing a response:<br />a) I believe that the behavior of the non-symptomatic students of the closed schools would have been different if the virus had been more lethal.<br />b) There are essential needs (food and water for starters) that cannot be denied for weeks or months on end.<br /><br />Janne: Your last point has been widely reported here. But it has nothing to do with the medical and social value of the measures that the government took. And it’s a sign of the political times that the media has not bothered to give the authorities any credit for the process—mainly the doings of the bureaucracy. More generally, give the bureaucracy the wrong incentives and it will fuck up; witness the skill with which the National Security Agency messed up the public pension system; give it the right ones and it will actually work. The service at your local prefectural and municipal offices has improved enormously over the last couple of decades. I don’t know what did the trick, but I’m sure that it had nothing to do with a change of heart on the part of civil servants. Same with JAL’s economy class service. The bureaucracy awaits the DPJ with a sense of fatalistic dread; task it, and it will respond positively, blame it, and the machine will grind to a halt. There’s a need to draw a line between demanding accountability and instigating a witch hunt. It is a pretty sure bet that we’ll have the chance to see how the DPJ fares.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-44439522420464420772009-06-05T23:18:37.262+09:002009-06-05T23:18:37.262+09:00Joe, actually, while quarantines for infected indi...Joe, actually, while quarantines for infected individuals are a good idea, larger-scale preventative quarantines are known today to be counterproductive. <br /><br />The problem is that people are perfectly adept at getting around them or traveling ahead of them (and frequently travel when they can simply to avoid being locked down later) and spreading the infection as a result; at the same time those same restrictions also limit the travel of emergency services and other necessary personnel (who, by the way, will also tend to spread the infection as well). Basically, you can lock down a village; you have no chance of locking down a city.<br /><br />Few nations plan for them as a result. Instead you limit the travel you can (like school trips) and ask companies and organizations to do likewise. Then you rely on people's good sense and their own apprehension to limit travel further. And when people know they could travel to their parents or whomever if they really, really need, they'll be fine refraining when they don't.<br /><br /><br />Jun, before you get a cramp patting the government on its back (and I do agree the response has been pretty appropriate), Asahi had a piece just recently stating that the earliest cases in Japan probably occurred around or before the travel inspections commenced.Jan Morenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06834641501438709866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-61417441985708715342009-06-05T22:45:41.033+09:002009-06-05T22:45:41.033+09:00I was actually surprised with how well both the na...I was actually surprised with how well both the national government and local bodies handled the latest flu outbreak. I work at City Hall, and had to translate H1N1-related materials for foreign nationals living in the city. The TV media, on the other hand, seemed to think it was a great idea to spread panic far and wide.<br /><br />But.<br /><br />After the fact I found out the measures that had been taken (airplane checks, closing schools, etc.) were based on plans for a bird flu virus with an anticipated 60% fatality rate. Luckily, pig influenza seemed pretty mild even before it hit Japan, but if I were in charge, my plans for a virus that could kill off over half the population in any given area would dispense with canceling field trips and focus instead on locking down the shinkansen, the trains, and the highways.Joenoreply@blogger.com