tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post3418787041557890238..comments2023-10-20T18:03:01.821+09:00Comments on GlobalTalk 21: Did the North Korean Launch Go Exactly as Planned?Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-83043069882122976522009-04-07T14:56:00.000+09:002009-04-07T14:56:00.000+09:00Durf: Your comment reminds me of a story about Sad...Durf: Your comment reminds me of a story about Saddam Hussein’s nuclear program, which you may already know. There was some serious post-war talk about Saddam believing Iraq was making a lot of progress on its nuclear program when in fact it wasn’t because his scientists kept lying to him out of well-justified fear. My own pre-war theory (which a friend of mine actually put to a White House national security contact, who dismissed it) was that Saddam was resisting inspections <I>because</I> he didn’t have a nuclear program anymore and didn’t want any of his enemies to know that. President Bush could have saved himself a lot of grief if he’d only bother to ask me…Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-64393706248374145612009-04-07T12:24:00.000+09:002009-04-07T12:24:00.000+09:00Thanks for the link. I noticed some glowing praise...Thanks for the link. I noticed some glowing praise for the successful launch soon after I posted that last comment, actually, along with commentary from abroad about how the scientists would certainly make such announcements to avoid the wrath of Dear Leader.Durfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01808798326382363759noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-59523958975744090442009-04-06T16:07:00.000+09:002009-04-06T16:07:00.000+09:00Thanks, Julián.Incidentally, I found that if you c...Thanks, Julián.<BR/><BR/>Incidentally, I found that if you click through from the KCNA home page, you stay with the original url, but when you open in a new tab, you get a new url, from which you can click through to more urls. There’s a little more to it, but that’s all you need to know if you want to link to individual news items there. That shouldn’t be a difficult thing to remedy, except I can’t imagine them getting a lot of helpful feedback.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-77921278695537628722009-04-06T14:00:00.000+09:002009-04-06T14:00:00.000+09:00Jun, this is the direct link to the KCNA propagand...Jun, <A HREF="http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2009/200904/news05/20090405-12ee.html" REL="nofollow">this</A> is the direct link to the KCNA propaganda wire you've quoted.Julián Ortega Martínezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13132666257585530706noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-67696731590915033562009-04-06T11:05:00.000+09:002009-04-06T11:05:00.000+09:00Janne: Haha. You certainly hit a point there about...Janne: Haha. You certainly hit a point there about humanity with the demonstration effect. And appearances are certainly an important element for the North Korean regime in maintaining its hold on its people as well as its variety of power centers. But regimes rarely if ever decide that they “want” an aerospace program just for the hell of it; it’s a very expensive undertaking. They want to be self-reliant as self-reliant as possible where military technology is concerned, and they see major industrial and commercial benefits of high tech R&D as well. (In Japan, self-imposed constraints on military exports have severely cramped its military aerospace industry; that’s why Japan has so little presence there.) So saying that North Korea wants one because its neighbors have it doesn’t really introduce an independent element.<BR/><BR/>Durf: The following is an excerpt from an April 5 report (updated today) on the <A HREF="http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm" REL="nofollow">KCNA website</A> (there are no direct links to the article itself). You can imagine what they’re telling their own people.<BR/><BR/><I>At 11:20 a.m. the satellite Kwangmyongsong-2, a shining product of self-reliance, soared into space by carrier rocket Unha-2. It was smoothly and accurately put into its orbit 9 minutes and 2 seconds after being completely separated from the carrier rocket.<BR/><BR/>Expressing great satisfaction over the fact that scientists and technicians of the DPRK successfully launched the satellite with their own wisdom and technology, he highly appreciated their feats and extended thanks to them.</I>Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-38282305591467869522009-04-06T10:26:00.000+09:002009-04-06T10:26:00.000+09:00It's worth noting that the last time they did a "s...It's worth noting that the last time they did a "satellite launch" they followed up with proud announcements that the thing was in orbit, beeping out the praises of the Dear Leader (although nobody else on the planet was able to spot the thing). No such announcements coming down the KCNA wire this time around?Durfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01808798326382363759noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-5915067836315963492009-04-06T09:22:00.000+09:002009-04-06T09:22:00.000+09:00There is one argument for launching a satellite th...There is one argument for launching a satellite that you don't seem to consider: Everybody else has one.<BR/><BR/>I know, high level politics and international relations are supposed to be cool, rational, calculated activities. But leaders and senior officials (in politics or business) are just as human and just as status conscious as the rest of us (and perhaps more), and the "all the other countries/companies are laughing at us" argument, and the "but everybody else has one" argument (corporate jets, remember?), and the "we don't get to play with the others without it" argument all have a surprising amount of force.<BR/><BR/>North Korea probably doesn't need a communications satellite. But then, neither does Japan (or India) need a space program of their own either; here's lots of launch options available on the open market after all. France doesn't need a carrier fleet, Sweden doesn't need its own fighter plane, the US doesn't need three carmakers, and half the flag carriers of the world could probably disappear without losing anything else than some peoples' misplaced pride.<BR/><BR/>Never underestimate normal human foibles as driver for world events, no matter how weighty.Jan Morenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06834641501438709866noreply@blogger.com