tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post3573458021585230703..comments2023-10-20T18:03:01.821+09:00Comments on GlobalTalk 21: Can the Communist Party Help the LDP-Komeito Coalition?Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-78165083677023685692007-06-24T09:27:00.000+09:002007-06-24T09:27:00.000+09:00You're very convincing, Ross, as usual. And if the...You're very convincing, Ross, as usual. And if the Upper House LDP maintains a plurality but the coalition is unable to cobble together a majority, the party rank-and-file will be loathe to support the kind of confrontational approach that would be required to speed up procedures in either House to force second votes in the Lower House.<BR/><BR/>Let me see, if the <I>Utsukushii Kuni</I> is to be believed, Mr. Abe's main interests are constitutional amandment, education, and the national safety net. He can claim, to his personal satisfaction at least, that he's put the first one in play with the national referendum law, that he's laid the foundations for the second with the revision of the main education acts, and that he will, knock on wood, have put into place legislation for the national pension system what previous administrations had failed to do. So, in the event of a serious defeat, if he chose to resign, he could claim the kind of legacy that a couple of powerful prime ministers whose incumbendcy was cut short because of measures they took that were deeply unpoular with the electorate, namely, his grandfather Nobusuke Kishi (revision of the Japan-US Security Treaty, 1960)and Noboru Takeshita (introduction of the consumption tax 1989). People have always wondered if he has the fire in the belly most people need to grab and maintain power. So, beyond the skill factor on managing around an Upper House minority, there's the question of desire.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-79018169740380019142007-06-24T07:07:00.000+09:002007-06-24T07:07:00.000+09:00I have thought about the lower house's ability to ...I have thought about the lower house's ability to bypass the upper house should the coalition lose that chamber next month. It is wrong to think that the LDP-Komeito 2/3rds majority in the lower house will be able to act as a functional government. First, pushing legislation through over the concerted opposition of the upper house will not do the cabinet's dismal approval ratings any good. Moreover, 60 days is quite a long time in legislative session terms and will be tricky to deal with to pass anything by the end of this year's session. That gives the coalition all of 2008. And with a lower house election needed by Sept 2009, the coalition is going to be loathe to force through anything that doesn't get some support from outside the coalition.<BR/><BR/>I don't think this particular power has even been used before. And I don't expect it to be used now. Expect an arrangement similar to the last time, 1989, this happened. Then the LDP could reach out to particular opposition parties, depending upon the issue, and get the upper house votes it needed.<BR/> <BR/>Was the 60-day, second vote power ever employed by the LDP between 1989 and 1993 when it did not have an upper house majority? I really don't think so. This time the JSP won't be at all accommodating, the JCP never was, the Komeito is already bought off, and the DSP is in the DPJ so that outreach won't work. <BR/><BR/>If it does come to having to manage a minority govt of sorts in the upper house Abe is not the skilled legislative operator to handle that touchy situation. It should be fun to watch the LDP manage this one.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Sidenote: as examples to think about situations in which more powerful chambers in bicameral systems have found it difficult to exert themselves, think about the difficulty that Germany's lower house has had sidestepping the ostensibly federally oriented upper house in the postwar era or of the rise of Japan's lower house under the 1889 constitution.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05932495879002188115noreply@blogger.com