tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post4132241741071417299..comments2023-10-20T18:03:01.821+09:00Comments on GlobalTalk 21: Asahi Superimposes the Tokyo Results onto the Lower House Election—Not so FastJun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-71697305651313164202009-07-14T23:50:30.146+09:002009-07-14T23:50:30.146+09:00Tinter, Wataru: I have been arguing for a while th...Tinter, Wataru: I have been arguing for a while that there are no substantive issues that cause the Komeito to favor the LDP over the DPJ as a coalition partner. If anything, the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election confirmed the existence of a solid <i>Sokagakkai</i> base that will support it rain or shine. If I were the Komeito leadership, I would maintain its marriage of convenience until the Lower House election is over, then reconsider our options. Remember, it’s the Upper House votes that the DPJ is likely to covet, and Koemito’s votes will come at a far less troubling price policywise than the Socialists’.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-53612712452758323112009-07-14T10:51:29.771+09:002009-07-14T10:51:29.771+09:00Komeito has a strong block vote and under the alli...Komeito has a strong block vote and under the alliance may well sustain its position. Without it? Probably substantial loses. There nothing for the sitting Komeito assembly members to gain from leaving at the moment, so Komeito won't.<br /><br />For better or for worse, Komeito is stuck with the LDP- well, mayhaps until upon death they do part.Tinternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-29262907180087722282009-07-14T08:18:23.020+09:002009-07-14T08:18:23.020+09:00How likely is it that Komeito will pin its electio...How likely is it that Komeito will pin its election strategy to an LDP win, when the odds strongly favor a loss of power? Is it set in stone that Komeito will continue with the usual election district cooperation with the LDP? The party must be thinking right now about fielding their own candidates regardless of the LDP slate, and then allying with the eventual winner in a coalition. The alternative is to lose their clout and have their ties to Soka Gakkai come under scrutiny.wataruhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934449228000680775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-11223313482127151712009-07-14T02:35:16.482+09:002009-07-14T02:35:16.482+09:00Its true that without taking into account the Kome...Its true that without taking into account the Komeito vote its all wrong. Its also true that Komeitos vote certainly came out more strongly than expected, given the circumstances. <br /><br />But we saw it come out for Komeito candidates- I think this also leaves unresolved the question of if Komeito voters are willing to come out to vote LDP in the same strength as they have previously? After all, jointly backed candidates have not been performing well in a number of other elections.<br /><br />Of course, we will probably have to wait until August for a real answer to that question.Tinternoreply@blogger.com