tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post7833688636667847601..comments2023-10-20T18:03:01.821+09:00Comments on GlobalTalk 21: LDP National Strategy Headquarters Gains New LeadershipJun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-90355368722626730622008-08-28T11:30:00.000+09:002008-08-28T11:30:00.000+09:00Incidentally, I have a personal problem with targe...Incidentally, I have a personal problem with targets like the FY2011 primary balance one. It obscures debate on how you actually get there and what lies beyond—most importantly in this case, how much of a role the temporary relief from an inflation tax plays before higher interest rates ratchet up debt service requirements over the long-run. And of course there’s the fiscal legerdemain that goes on to meet the target such as raiding “buried treasures”. But I guess we need something as a reference point, for policy debate and decisions.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-14833050441758130272008-08-28T11:16:00.000+09:002008-08-28T11:16:00.000+09:00I see your point about the political constraints i...I see your point about the political constraints imposed by the sheer size and persistence of the budget deficit and the ballooning debt overhang. About the 2011 primary balance: Overly ambitious and possibly politically doomed from the start? Perhaps. But impossible? With a little more real growth plus inflation, like Takenaka projected, who knew? So I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some people who seriously believed—rather than just hope with their fingers crossed—that it would happen. In any case, it’s a moot question.<BR/><BR/>Your point about Japanese/LDP budget politics is well taken, although the problem appears to be only a <A HREF="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/the_rise_of_fantasy_politics.html" REL="nofollow">matter of degree</A>. I hope that the ongoing emergence of a credible opposition with far fewer ties to vested interests will move the political debate towards common interests (long-term viability of the social welfare system and the related issue of tax incidence, national commitment to marginal communities, etc.), though the DPJ to my disappointment is currently moving in the opposite direction for reasons of electoral tactics. As you imply, this process is going to take several election cycles to work itself out.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-11314674183764258792008-08-28T10:21:00.000+09:002008-08-28T10:21:00.000+09:00Perhaps Koizumi influenced the direction, at least...Perhaps Koizumi influenced the direction, at least while he was PM. But I suspect the size of the persistent budget deficits has constrained LDPers just as much. Impossible to know. I never believed the LDP would achieve primary budget balance by 2011 and don't know anyone who ever did. <BR/><BR/>Most interesting though, is how Japanese budget politics, both on the revenue and spending sides of the ledger, reveal what a weak state the LDP has actually governed: more an enforcer of private, favored interests than an assertion of common interests. That's not surprising given the incentives and resulting political equilibrium engendered by the SNTV-MMD system, but it is breaking down, ever so slowly. Real alternation in power would speed up this process.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05932495879002188115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-69943874477719043662008-08-27T21:22:00.000+09:002008-08-27T21:22:00.000+09:00Ross:We’re talking about vastly different timefram...Ross:<BR/><BR/>We’re talking about vastly different timeframes, in my case the ‘00s and the last couple of months. True, there were multitrillion-yen cheating (raiding the special account reserves) and indiscriminate across-the-board-cuts in lieu of an inter-ministerial reordering of national priorities (pretty much what you always get when you do not have support from a technically competent team of independent cost cutters) with most of that money going to plug a growing hole in the social safety net. But the Koizumi administration did set into motion a process that has put a chokehold on very important LDP constituencies and funding sources, giving MOF sympathizers their day in the sun. That is what has changed.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-32185939441195067982008-08-27T20:39:00.000+09:002008-08-27T20:39:00.000+09:00"the LDP conservatives have been edging away from ..."the LDP conservatives have been edging away from fiscal probity" <BR/><BR/>Seriously? In their words maybe but never in action. The LDP has never stood for much more than fiscal profligacy, at least since Tanaka. And arguably before, though rapid economic growth obscured rapid spending prior to the early 1970s.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com