tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post8571570061812371664..comments2023-10-20T18:03:01.821+09:00Comments on GlobalTalk 21: For Chinese Authorities Sichuan Quake a Reminder of Even Bigger Political RisksJun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-32111072742922296202008-05-17T09:12:00.000+09:002008-05-17T09:12:00.000+09:00Yes, it can happen to Tokyo, as it happened to Kob...Yes, it can happen to Tokyo, as it happened to Kobe in the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake. But if that leads to a public loss of faith in the authorities, the most that can happen politically is a transfer of power to the opposition, a seachange in Japanese politics, but still merely a change in administrations. In China, there is no institutionalized political opposition, so a loss of the public mandate could lead to regime change. It is this systemic risk, this existential threat, that distinguishes authoritarian regimes from established democracies.<BR/><BR/>I’m sure that Japan is good at this sort of thing. It’s also interesting to note that today’s (May 17) report says that Singapore has also sent a rescue team. Singapore is in the neighborhood, but it is also the only other Han-majority sovereign state, not counting Taiwan.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-60716471485182430512008-05-16T16:31:00.000+09:002008-05-16T16:31:00.000+09:00The question about "if the earthquake had hit a re...The question about "if the earthquake had hit a really large urban center" can be applied to any large urban center.<BR/>What will happen when the next big Kanto earthquake strikes ? How will Japanese nuclear plants, designed to withstand 6.5 earthquakes, react to a 7.5 one? With the recent building scandals, I'm not sure about the resilience of big Japanese condo buildings...<BR/>About accepting the Japanese offer first, I also think there is a political side to it, but besides, Japanese teams seem to have one of the best trainings related to earthquake response.Sophiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09507512077820034913noreply@blogger.com