tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post8750314281577098814..comments2023-10-20T18:03:01.821+09:00Comments on GlobalTalk 21: A Little Historical Perspective on the Tokyo ElectionJun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-58018008502963511462009-07-12T21:06:53.282+09:002009-07-12T21:06:53.282+09:00Yes, the absentee numbers... which the media only ...Yes, the absentee numbers... which the media only revealed late in the afternoon. I suspect that the Tokyo Metropolitan Election Management Committee withheld the information.<br /><br />And: "There is a slight chance that it will pass the 13th place 1993 election, at <i><b>5</b></i>1.43%."<br />Not: "There is a slight chance that it will pass the 13th place 1993 election, at <i><b>4</b></i>1.43%."Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-51674387556033225562009-07-12T20:43:56.328+09:002009-07-12T20:43:56.328+09:00The absentee voting totals were 1.8 times the prev...The absentee voting totals were 1.8 times the previous election, so it looks like we could hit 50%.wataruhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934449228000680775noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-69698512826342554482009-07-12T20:37:25.862+09:002009-07-12T20:37:25.862+09:00And the facts bear you out, Wataru. The turnout, 3...And the facts bear you out, Wataru. The turnout, 30 minutes before the voting stations closed, was 42.77%, 6.89 percentage points ahead of 2005 at that time. There is a slight chance that it will pass the 13th place 1993 election, at 41.43%. It looks bad for the LDP. Indeed, <i>Sankei</i> has already proclaimed a DPJ victory by 8:04PM on <a href="http://sankei.jp.msn.com/politics/local/090712/lcl0907122004006-n1.htm" rel="nofollow">its website</a> as soon as the voting stations closed at 8:00PM.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-39088704576049661022009-07-12T16:00:43.233+09:002009-07-12T16:00:43.233+09:00Wataru: Perhaps. And the official 3PM turnout is 2...Wataru: Perhaps. And the official 3PM turnout is 29.22%, up 3.87 percentage points, according to the <a href="http://219.109.13.251/togisen/index.html" rel="nofollow">Tokyo Metropolitan Government.</a> So, 8 hours gone and 5 hours away from closing time, if the weather holds up the rest of the day, turnout could reach the high 40s, where it will still be stuck in 14th place historically.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-48509370083568718952009-07-12T13:23:13.782+09:002009-07-12T13:23:13.782+09:00Yomiuri has already changed the noon estimate to 3...Yomiuri has already changed the noon estimate to 3.28%, but in my experience those early estimates are not very reliable, either in Japan or in US elections, for telling us the final turnout.wataruhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934449228000680775noreply@blogger.com