tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.comments2023-10-20T18:03:01.821+09:00GlobalTalk 21Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comBlogger2998125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-91167874198825385262015-11-02T11:45:43.646+09:002015-11-02T11:45:43.646+09:00Reminds you of the (really) old days, doesn't ...Reminds you of the (really) old days, doesn't it? At least Wen Jiabao had some clou, whereas Li is more Alfred than Robin.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-60274024241646003992015-10-29T23:42:19.361+09:002015-10-29T23:42:19.361+09:00Why do Park and Abe stoop so low? They are the &q...Why do Park and Abe stoop so low? They are the "CEOs'"of their countries and should meet with Xi, who's their counterpart. But they accept a "summit" meeting with some underling functionary. Robert Dujarrichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14646968650516351466noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-68958221897096952762015-04-25T10:53:05.826+09:002015-04-25T10:53:05.826+09:00I think my esteemed friend Okumura-san confuses et...I think my esteemed friend Okumura-san confuses ethics with politics. There is no doubt that the genocide of native peoples in the New World, as well as massacres in the colonies, are as bad, and in several cases far worse, than anything the Imperial Japanese Army did in 1931-45.<br /><br />But the apology business is not about morals, it's about politics. Thus, it deals not with ethical absolutes but with the relativism of politics. Having slaughtered the indigenous inhabitants, and stolen 99% of their land, has very little impact on the international position of the United States. Nor is the killing of over half of the Hereros of German Southwest Africa a burden on contemporary German diplomacy. <br /><br />There are, however, cases where misdeeds, ranging from genocide (Nazi Germany) to old-fashioned massacres (Nanjing) have grave consequences for the national interest of the successor states (Federal Germany, today's Japan). Some countries totally fail to handle it. Turkey being the prime example (Armenian genocide). Others managed it extremely well (Germany). Japan has done a better job than Turkey (not a very high standard) but not as good as Germany.<br /><br />Japan suffers from the unfortunate marriage of Mr. Showa with Mr. Hitler (or if you prefer General Tojo with Mr. Hitler, Mr. Showa being the symbolic father of the groom). Therefore, when comparisons are made, no one thinks of the fate of the native Americans, the Africans enslaved and murdered by Europeans, or the Aboriginal Australians. Rather, everyone asks about how Japan performed in the realm of apologies compared with Germany.<br /><br />This is unfair. But (a) life is not fair. Additionally (b) neither the Japanese Civil Code nor its German counterpart (which influenced the Japanese version) recognize posthumous divorce. When Mr. Hitler blew his brains in April 1945 he was still married to Mr. Showa, with whom he, had had a child known as the Axis. Had Japan, like Italy after it overthrew the Duce, ended the matrimony prior to the German leader's death, it might have been possible to separate Imperial Japan from Nazi Germany in the minds of observers. But after the death of the Fuehrer, it became impossible. <br /><br />There is, therefore, no way for Japan to escape the ghosts of its association with the Third Reich. It places unique burdens on today's Japanese premier, something he may not fully realize.Robert Dujarrichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14646968650516351466noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-43319221799150577552015-02-13T21:00:54.165+09:002015-02-13T21:00:54.165+09:00MTC:
Having worked the other end of the bureaucra...MTC:<br /><br />Having worked the other end of the bureaucratic stick, I have a different take on this. First, a budget is not a goal in itself, except to the people who are graded by the size of the budget. Having to fulfill a task that you disagree with is the second most painful thing for a bureaucrat—surpassed only by not having any task to fulfill—and you can bet that MOFA bureaucrats disagree with way that the message is being cast and the way that they are being forced to go about it. To have to double down on that because things are not going your way? Speaking as a former METI official, let me just say that I would not wish that on my worst enemies. Of course the MOFA bureaucracy surely dislikes what the South Koreans and their American supporters are doing even more, but that only intensifies the agony of having to execute a policy that provides ammunition to its antagonists (not to mention the windfall benefits for the Chinese). As for your second point, the irony is very much appreciated. <br />Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-38631992837847283212015-02-13T02:00:36.949+09:002015-02-13T02:00:36.949+09:00Then again, failure is a reasonable goal.
First ...Then again, failure is a reasonable goal. <br /><br />First and mostly importantly, the diplomats earn a repeat of last year's budget allocation and possibly even an increase for having <i>tried</i> (よく頑張ったね。お疲れ様)to change the wording of a U.S. textbook, an act which, according to the likes of Sakurai Yoshiko, is precisely the kind of vain, after-the-fact pleading Japan's diplomats should be doing in their copious free time. <br /><br />Second, failing to secure the change reinforces the narrative that Japan cannot at present win fair treatment in the court of world opinion. If the diplomats had succeeded, journalists and op-ed writers would have some very dull copy indeed.MTChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04626942240117432624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-73523041815193021002015-02-08T16:38:20.526+09:002015-02-08T16:38:20.526+09:00Anonymous:
I keep running into perfectly capable ...Anonymous:<br /><br />I keep running into perfectly capable economists who do reputable work on Japan without professionally functional Japanese language skills. Indeed there is much useful data readily available that can and do benefit from dissection by experts free of the conventional wisdom and skin in the game—say, appointments to government advisory councils, administrative agencies, and, more recently, corporate boards, government and corporate grants, etc. But I have also seen these people make fools of themselves as they venture beyond their realm of competence. And that is only to be expected if your prime sources of information source are limited to English-language publications and English-speaking locals.<br /><br />I plead guilty to the sin myself. I just got called out when I made a crack about Australian politics. But at least I had enough command of the English language to have the wits to qualify my comment with “unlikely.”Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-59418761030462071262015-02-08T16:08:08.092+09:002015-02-08T16:08:08.092+09:00Michael:
I know too little about Australian polit...Michael:<br /><br />I know too little about Australian politics to go beyond “unlikely,” but I’m happy to take your word for it and alter it to “as-likely-as-ten-monkeys-typing-the-entire-works-of-Shakespeare-including-the-sonnets.”Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-73383846310926725632015-02-08T13:03:37.977+09:002015-02-08T13:03:37.977+09:00Apologies if I've taken the last point too lit...Apologies if I've taken the last point too literally but Rudd (and Gillard) retired after the previous Federal election so the chance of either returning is for all intents and purposes zero.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14308460004045843999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-541248730251991572015-02-08T12:47:09.573+09:002015-02-08T12:47:09.573+09:00It's amazing how lacking erudite foreign analy...It's amazing how lacking erudite foreign analysts/observers of Japan are that Noah Smith can even position himself as some kind of authority on the country and its business and macro situation<br />Some of his claims on shareholder rights are plain wrong... not just idiotic but based on factually incorrect premisesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-28974511976047653162015-01-27T10:22:09.315+09:002015-01-27T10:22:09.315+09:00"Mr. Abe’s government on Monday convened a se..."Mr. Abe’s government on Monday convened a session of parliament in which it plans to introduce legislation that will allow Japan to engage in “collective self-defense,” including aiding allies such as the U.S. in regional conflicts threatening Japan’s security, and to come to the rescue of Japanese citizens abroad."<br /><br />Link:<br />http://on.wsj.com/1yVlnFe<br /><br />Well, that didn't take long. Interestingly, in the article Ichiro Ozawa makes the same point that I made, only in even stronger language:<br /><br />"The prime minister says it’s humanitarian aid and that he’s not sending ammunition, weapons or troops, but wars aren’t just about firing guns. Soldiers cannot fight without food. Mr. Abe basically went all the way over there and gave a speech which could be interpreted by the Islamic State as a declaration of war."<br /><br />Again, I don't see anything whatsoever conspiratorial here. All the actors actions are open to the public and well intended. It's just how these things happen to play out historically. Intervention provokes reaction which provokes even more intervention.Matt Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09276531398959895160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-16479356250175326282015-01-25T16:55:13.405+09:002015-01-25T16:55:13.405+09:00Sophie, Jan: Your samples and views on media cover...Sophie, Jan: Your samples and views on media coverage are appreciated. This is a subject that an international consortium of political science quants could do justice to.<br /><br />Sophie: Mr. Yukawa was certainly a troubled man who went a great ways to create his own predicament. But the government of a liberal democracy is nonetheless obligated to protect citizens like him and, of course, Mr. Goto.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-26938831328453302202015-01-25T10:43:24.621+09:002015-01-25T10:43:24.621+09:00The largest Swedish daily paper does cover the Jap...The largest Swedish daily paper does cover the Japanese hostages, including a piece about one of their mothers plea for his return. They are not front-page news of course - but then, neither is the coverage of European hostages, news of which is covered in much the same way.<br /><br />I'd rather say the order seems to be 1) own country; 2) other first-world countries; 3) the rest.<br /><br />Jan Morenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06834641501438709866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-6407231070565212132015-01-25T01:42:04.511+09:002015-01-25T01:42:04.511+09:00« War is boring » had a piece about Haruna Yukawa ...« War is boring » had a piece about Haruna Yukawa a few months ago. His story is bizarre to say the least. Sad to see him meeting such a fate, but hard for a government like Japan to intervene for him.<br />https://medium.com/war-is-boring/the-tragedy-of-islamic-states-japanese-hostage-1d18bf794ac8<br />It’s always seemed to me as if the Japanese government tends to blame hostages for their situations, I remember parents apologizing for their kids being taken hostage and giving trouble to the government. Sophiehttp://sophie-g.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-45707907281725132082015-01-25T01:16:18.021+09:002015-01-25T01:16:18.021+09:00IS is good at using social media, I’m sure, but I’...IS is good at using social media, I’m sure, but I’m also sure that IS pays far more attention to a speech by Prime Minister Abe in Cairo in front of all those local dignitaries than a tweet from someone who is not even running for president now. Yes, Mr. McCain did run for president, but so did Adlai Stevenson. Twice.<br /><br />I’m leaving it at that.<br />Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-4368084111355457962015-01-24T08:25:04.554+09:002015-01-24T08:25:04.554+09:00"Mr. McCain, I’m sure, has his own scheduling..."Mr. McCain, I’m sure, has his own scheduling requirements, not that I think IS really noticed Mr. McCain."<br /><br />ISIS would surely have caught this, because Senator McCain boasted about it on his twitter account. Check out the tweet:<br />https://twitter.com/senjohnmccain/status/557532861537189888<br /><br />The tweet states, "US delegation was glad to see #Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe yesterday in #Israel"<br /><br />ISIS is very social media savvy, McCain has made himself out to be there number one enemy. Even if a significant meeting like this were, implausibly, an accident, would ISIS have regarded it as such?<br /><br />I tend to think that when a political delegation meets with a world leader, takes a picture of the event and publicly boasts about it, they are trying to send a message.<br /><br />ISIS could have tried to ransom off the hostages for ordinary terms, but instead they attempted to make a political statement. One can assume this was just a confused act, or one can try to theorize about what motivated it.<br /><br />I'm open to alternative theories as to why ISIS thought they needed to make a statement to Japan.Matt Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09276531398959895160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-59766039485755038012015-01-23T23:57:51.538+09:002015-01-23T23:57:51.538+09:00Folks:
Mr. Abe’s Sisi-Abdullah-Netanyahu trifecta...Folks:<br /><br />Mr. Abe’s Sisi-Abdullah-Netanyahu trifecta did not exactly spell out out I Heart IS, but I do not think that it really figured into the decision to go public with the 200 million USD demand. And the timing of his weekend Middle East visit was dictated by the exigencies of the Saga gubernatorial election and the soon-to-be-crowded legislative schedule. Mr. McCain, I’m sure, has his own scheduling requirements, not that I think IS really noticed Mr. McCain.<br /><br />I can only guess as to Mr. Abe’s motives for linking the humanitarian aid to the fight against IS, but a) he is generally forthcoming when it comes to U.S.-centric alliance efforts, b) Japan has an arguably greater interest in Middle East stability from a national security viewpoint than the increasingly energy-self-sufficient U.S., and c) Japan did miss out on the Charlie Hebdo rally (complete with an improbable Natanyahu-Abbas-bookended chorus line).<br /><br />JunJun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-73793975391399136222015-01-23T14:00:12.836+09:002015-01-23T14:00:12.836+09:00The Israeli angle is more complex. As the recent...The Israeli angle is more complex. As the recent Israeli strikes against Hezbulah and Iranian forces, Israeli policy is focused on fighting the enemies of ISIS, not ISIS.Robert Dujarrichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14646968650516351466noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-9128121320998523212015-01-23T09:38:49.951+09:002015-01-23T09:38:49.951+09:00Looking around a bit more, I was able to answer my...Looking around a bit more, I was able to answer my own question...<br /><br />"続いて、アメリカ合衆国のジョン・マケイン上院議員らによる表敬を受け"<br /><br />Link:<br />http://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/97_abe/actions/201501/19israel.html<br /><br />That is the *only* on-line reference I can get to this. But this meeting in Israel with McCain would be seen as provocative. How could it not be? Combine that with the the whole state visit, and then Abe's statement.<br /><br />"... now that ISIL says that I'm the worst of the worst, I'm deeply honored. When I get that kind of reaction, it means that they think I'm a problem. And I want to be a problem to them. I've been told on several occasions that they view me as their greatest enemy." — John McCain <br /><br />Link:<br />http://www.azcentral.com/story/azdc/2014/07/28/mccain-isis-enemy-crusader-syria-iraq/13289749/<br /><br />The question isn't whether there is something sinister going on here, but whether Abe considered the impact his actions and words were going to have—and whether as a representative of Japan those actions and words were appropriate. Even if he wanted to give money to support the war on ISIL he could have done his upmost to play this down. He didn't' have to announce it in a speech. He also could have avoided meeting McCain in Israel.<br /><br />It seems to me, for better or worse, Abe wanted to send a clear message to ISIL. Was that really in his prerogative as Prime Minister to do so? What's the consensus in Japan about this?Matt Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09276531398959895160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-3862117533603377252015-01-23T08:57:35.848+09:002015-01-23T08:57:35.848+09:00Did Abe meet with Senator McCain while in Israel?
...Did Abe meet with Senator McCain while in Israel?<br /><br />"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will arrive in Israel Sunday as part of a regional tour, marking the first visit by a Japanese premier since 2006. In addition to Abe, Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird arrived on Friday for a five day visit to Israel and the West Bank. A nine-member US bi-partisan Senate delegation, led by the new Charmian of the Senate Armed Services Committee, John McCain, will also be in Israel at the beginning of the week."<br /><br />Link:<br />http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Japans-Abe-Canadas-Baird-McCain-and-US-senate-delegation-in-Israel-for-talks-this-week-388057<br /><br />This article details the highlights of McCain's trip.<br /><br />It seems hardly a coincidence they were there at the same time. McCain is the number one proponent of American military engagement in the middle-east. He argues that if the US had been more actively involved with the civil war in Syria, as well as, continuing to stay more involved in Iraq, that this would have prevented ISIL from forming. He is strongly pro-Israel.<br /><br />Three thoughts occur to me:<br /><br />1. It would have been strange to me if Abe had not met with McCain, as they were there at the same time—and at least in some capacity covering the same topic, ISIL and middle-east security.<br /><br />2. If they had met, it would have been really conspicuous perhaps. So did they meet perhaps unofficially in some manner? Would that have been impossible?<br /><br />3. Is it possible that there might have been a little US pressure on Abe to make his statement against ISIL—or is that too hypothetical? Surely, Abe wants to do whatever he can to sure up his relationship with the US.<br /><br />If you've never read it, I recommend Abe's speech given to the neoconservative think tank, AEI in 2004, he states:<br /><br />"The decision thus made by Prime Minister Koizumi to dispatch the Self-Defense Forces to Iraq truly represents a “historic decision,” I firmly believe this to be a most profound decision resulting from deep thought given to the long-term future of the nation."<br /><br />Link:<br />http://www.aei.org/publication/an-evolving-relationship/<br /><br />For the record, I don't see anything sinister or conspiratorial here. Abe's view is fairly well explicated and available. One might philosophically disagree, but Abe's view is fairly understandable given his conservative viewpoint.<br /><br />On a separate issue, Abe brought with him to Israel 100 business leaders. I wonder if any of them were weapons manufacturers? If there were, for members of ISIL that potentially might have also caught their attention—I mean on top of McCain showing up with Abe at the same time, and then Abe making an explicit statement against ISIL.<br /><br />Link:<br />http://www.ibtimes.com/japan-wants-sell-sub-hunting-jet-british-under-new-military-exports-policy-1776072Matt Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09276531398959895160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-42004337220873686062015-01-23T03:37:51.018+09:002015-01-23T03:37:51.018+09:00As you know I'm not an Abe fan, nor do I think...As you know I'm not an Abe fan, nor do I think that western policy towards the Caliphate is effective. But I think the change.org folks are living on another planet. <br /><br /> Given Japan's diplomat positioning (reliance on US Alliance, close econ ties with many Arab petro-monarchies) it can't avoid funding the anti-ISIS side even if the money is wasted/stolen. Once the US and the Saudis ask for contributions, tough for Tokyo to say no (that Saudi wahabism is one of the roots of ISIS is another issue...)<br /><br />Plus, as Jun noted in a blog, ISIS funds itself through kidnappings. Japan is rich, so by definition any Caliphate business manager will try to grab them. If Japan were the poorest nation on earth, maybe Japanese would be less likely to be targeted. But does anybody want Japan to be a place where citizens starve and live short and miserable lives?Robert Dujarrichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14646968650516351466noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-46051259526525775022015-01-21T12:06:24.127+09:002015-01-21T12:06:24.127+09:00Robert, Matt, thank you for your comments and for ...Robert, Matt, thank you for your comments and for your constant aversion to anonymity.<br /><br />Robert, your point about “prisoner” exchanges is well taken regarding military personnel and public officials. And your point about the lack of evidence regarding monetary payments by the U.S. government is also valid. That said, given the highly favorable “exchange” rates that the U.S. government offers, I would be very surprised if cash sweeteners were require to seal the deal.<br /><br />Matt, your point about seemingly innocuous initiatives mushrooming into more sinister operations is a useful one, something that we must always be on the watch for. But this is not the first time that the Japanese government has provided humanitarian and related assistance in the Middle East, and it will not be the last. But if you are strongly suspicious of Mr. Abe’s intentions, as I suspect you are, rest assured, Komeito will never allow him to do what you fear.<br /><br />My take on Mr. Abe’s most recent efforts to raise Japan’s profile in the Middle East is related, but somewhat different. I believe that they are one with his efforts to reinforce security relationships with likeminded countries broadly speaking. Here, I am referring to the regular security 2-by-2s not just with the U.S. but also Australia, France, and the U.K. (pending? And, yikes, Russia? Okay, established in balmier times), testing the waters on joint weapon systems development (not just the U.S. but also Australia, France, U.K.), and what else. Not exactly “containment”—China is too big and too interconnected to contain—but I see a common realist thread running through these efforts. One may disagree with all or parts of it, but it does seem to be consistent and, so far, effective.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-83230250228727165682015-01-21T08:16:30.518+09:002015-01-21T08:16:30.518+09:00Money is entirely fungible. If Abe gives money to,...Money is entirely fungible. If Abe gives money to, for example, Iraq for hospitals, then that is money that can be saved and thus other funds can be freed to buy weapons.<br /><br />That is, a government collects money and spends money. If they collect *extra* money, they can spend more money on weapons. So saying that money is humanitarian aid or something isn't really genuine. It's just a means of political cover.<br /><br />So in this case, clearly Abe is providing aid to a country at war. Given the enemy, it's easy to be sympathetic to this. ISIL is a force of evil. However, to what extent has Abe created a consensus in Japan for providing aid to another country at war? That is, is there a consensus in Japan that people want Abe to go into the middle east, take sides in a deadly conflict, and then boast about it?<br /><br />This is a typical way politicians drive the public toward aggression. The political leadership engages in what on the surface appear to be unobtrusive acts (humanitarian aid), but are actually provocative acts (aiding and abetting one side in a violent conflict), then when these provocations result in reprisal, everyone acts surprised and innocent. They say, why are they attacking us? We didn't do anything.<br /><br />I hope this doesn't have the effect of creating a general atmosphere where revising the constitution appears to be more viable. I hope people rightly understand that Abe was overseas engaging in provocative actions, and this hostage situation was a consequence.<br /><br />Of course, ISIL is quite evil. But as to whether quashing this evil or not is Japan's responsibility or in Japan's self-interest is another matter altogether.Matt Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09276531398959895160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-40156776462613053442015-01-21T04:07:43.710+09:002015-01-21T04:07:43.710+09:00Actually, the US and Israel pay. They used differ...Actually, the US and Israel pay. They used different currencies. Israel frees large number of detainees (some of them charged with rather severe acts) in exchange for just one live Israeli or a few dead ones. The US also does this, though generally with better exchange ratio (partly because it's a lot of easier for Israel than the US to capture high or medium value targets). Also the US paid North Korea in prestige (visits by American dignitaries) in to get Americans releases.<br />And of course, there's no proof that no money changed hands .Robert Dujarrichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14646968650516351466noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-20056564279515401672015-01-12T16:25:07.340+09:002015-01-12T16:25:07.340+09:00And while we’re on this subject, isn’t a French jo...And while we’re on this subject, isn’t a French journalist who frowns on flirting a walking oxymoron?Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-34809826516313032482015-01-12T16:14:44.339+09:002015-01-12T16:14:44.339+09:00Funny you mentioned Hooters. I was going to write ...Funny you mentioned Hooters. I was going to write that Smith probably thought that Hooters waitresses were strippers, but didn't just because I wasn't in the mood for a digression there. I assume that they are merely friendly people showing a lot of skin, not flirty, as the latter would inevitably lead to problems with overeager clientele.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com