tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-327767562024-03-14T07:32:28.165+09:00GlobalTalk 21I have been “mistaken,” “misled,” “misrepresented,” and been “unaccountably in error,” <br>
and am sorry if you have been offended
Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comBlogger1971125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-64835696842016116432023-02-02T10:42:00.002+09:002023-02-02T10:42:33.654+09:00Speculation on the Origin Story and Other Matters regarding Sumo: A Nexus of Religion and Entertainment<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal">Origin story notwithstanding, a mythical event is a mythical
event, and grappling, with the winner “taking down” the loser, is universal and
timeless, and so is its more secular role as venue for spectator sports and
gambling. The 8th C. official histories of Japan contain a story about two lords
grappling, with the loser forfeiting his realm to the other. There’s also a
striking 16th C. folding screen depicting Oda Nobunaga and his favorite male
attendant—yes, other warrior traditions also transcend time and space—watching someone
who surely must have been Sasuke, the African samurai “as powerful as ten men
(according to a contemporary account),” wrestling a similarly muscular Japanese,
while nine more waited their turn. Many more records of more or less memorable events
must exist in between—Nobunaga, for one. was known to stage them for his own
enjoyment—but I’ll stick to memory for now.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Sumo certainly has powerful associations with religion, but it
works both ways, and not just with Shinto even broadly constituted. Origin
stories often feature one god or other. But that speaks to the nature of life
in the premodern world and its connection to a pantheistic world view. Godhood is
conferred on objects both mundane and profound; heroes, villains, and otherwise
nameless victims are deified. It could very well be that the existence of sumo spawned
the myth, not the other way around.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Sumo is also associated with another, historically just as
important religion: Buddhism. Sumo, like so many primary forms of mass entertainment
in Japan, flowered during the Edo era, when urban centers became the stage for tournaments
among strongmen, some sponsored by daimyo lords and other men of means. Many of
these tournaments were fundraisers sponsored by Buddhist temples and Shinto shrines.
The most famous far was held in Edo, at Ekouin, a Buddhist temple, and drew
large crowds to box seats, bleacher seats, and concession stands (some things
never change). (The first record of this stage-and-spectator-seats setting was what
I like to think of as a Buddhist marathon dancing event. But I digress.) This
was not an accident. Buddhist sects and their temples played a dominant role in
the organized public and private lives of the Edo-era Japanese, already having
literally incorporated key Shinto deities under their wings.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">But what does the last point have to do with the origin
story? The men who launched the Meiji Restoration launched many attacks against
the forces of the Edo-era status quo, the swift, often violent separation of Buddhism
from Shinto being one of them. This served two purposes: wrest control over the
lives and deaths of the newly leveled and secularized citizens of Japan away
from the temples and into the hands of the new Meiji government, and help exalt
the emperor as the sole spiritual head of a sacred realm. Sumo, like many other
forms of established arts and entertainment, had to face a brave new world, as its
old patrons and sponsors were gone, or greatly diminished. Is it possible that
its leaders decided to emphasize its origin story to bind itself tightly to the
new status quo, while appealing to the nostalgia of its fans for the old order
by defying the new convention of no topknots? Speculation. So, easily falsifiable
by appropriate research. I’ll leave it at that.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">And now, a final thought. My first point <a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/Okumura_Jun/status/1619696271840940032">here</a>
expressed my amusement over the irony that one of professional sumo’s most
iconic rituals—surely most poignant—was one of the latest to take hold (and
also strictly secular). The second point, together with the first, highlighted
the syncretic nature of rituals in sports events and their transition from novelty
to transition. For the singing of the national anthem (and now the Air Force
flyovers) as well as the seventh-inning stretch (and “Take Me Out to the
Ballgame”) were once novel, though they are routine today.<o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Now, let the fat lady sing.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-33366760053942644362018-06-06T13:08:00.002+09:002018-06-06T13:08:46.625+09:00Trump Tariffs and the Fallout on the Abe Administration<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">1)<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> The G-7 finance ministers' meeting ended in
rare acrimony, with the U.S. looking increasingly isolated over the steel and
aluminum tariffs. Japan seems to be less angry compared to the EU and Canada,
but do you think they'll take a harder stance during the summit? What's your
view on the U.S. state of isolation?<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Japan
will be prepared to act jointly or in parallel with the EU and Canada but will
refrain from the kind of forceful rhetoric that other members of the G7 are
willing to direct towards the United States. Unlike Canada or EU member states,
Japan must get by in a hostile security environment with the United States as
its only dependable ally. (Growing relationships with Australia, India, the
United Kingdom, France et al are nice, but they are ineffective in the
Northeast Asia neighborhood.) The United States is big enough and strong enough
that it will suffer least from the consequences of its isolation from erstwhile
likeminded allies. It will, of course, be hurt in the short-run by the
“loss-loss,” unilateral actions it is taking on the trade front, whatever gains
it secures by coercion or consent (some of the outcome from the NAFTA
renegotiations could be improvements). But the real loss will come from the
longer-term development of byways in the international financial system that is
currently highly vulnerable to unilateral U.S. actions, a dispute settlement
alternative to the WHO mechanism that the Trump administration is stealthily
undermining, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and so on. “TPP-minus 1”
will be the default mode for the future development of the international
economic architecture unless the United States decides to<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>change course.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">2)<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> Japan hasn't managed to secure exemptions
from the U.S. over the steel and aluminum tariffs as yet - how useful do you
think the summit will be for Japan in making progress on this front?<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I
doubt that it will have any effect. The Trump administration is determined to
squeeze something out of Japan on the bilateral front, but from all appearances
lacks the bandwidth to tackle it seriously, given all the other items on its
agenda. Thus, the matter remains on virtual hold, and the Abe administration
seems in no hurry either, given the minimal effect that the tariffs have on
Japanese exports and, of course, the negative fallout on the yet-to-be-ratified
CPTPP that any action towards a Japan-U.S. bilateral agreement would have. That
said, I will be surprised if Abe does not take with him some kind of proposal
for side talk on bilateral issues along with a renewed appeal to rejoin the
TPP. Surprise me, Prime Minister, and prove me wrong!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">3)<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> How much does Japan's failure to secure
exemptions hurt the Abe administration domestically?<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Minimally.
There has been media talk of toadying up to Trump to no avail, but the economic
impact is too small. In addition, the rest of the G7 (and Mexico) now falling
under the sword goes some ways to vicariously assuage the pain. The U.S.
sanctions toward Russia and now China should also be enough to remind the part
of the public actually paying attention—the steel and aluminum tariffs are not
a major economic concern—that the effects of bonhomie with the Donald of Orange
have their limits for everyone.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
fallout is lost as mere noise in the uproar over the ongoing domestic scandals
around the prime minister.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-16355728162777338342018-06-04T12:52:00.000+09:002018-06-04T12:52:03.000+09:00So Aso Gives Up a Year’s Pay...<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Voluntarily
giving up all or part of one’s pay for a given duration is a common form for members
of organizations to assume moral responsibility while escaping legal
responsibility and thus avoiding formal sanctions, which in turn would amplify
calls for resignation or dismissal. Twelve months’ pay is the heftiest that I’ve
ever seen, though. It indicates the seriousness with which Aso and by extension
the Abe administration is making a show of taking the MOF transgressions.
However, this will surely raise doubts in the progressive media over the appropriateness
of shielding Aso from formal sanctions, which would have inflamed demands for
Aso to resign, which in turn would have pushed the Abe administration out into
deep waters.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">With
the sanctions and Aso’s voluntary penitence locked in, the Abe administration and
the LDP-Komeito coalition will push forward with less patience through the rest
of the Diet session to pass as much of their legislative agenda as possible, and
Abe will be duly reelected as LDP president and, barring another unforeseen
political disaster, continue on as prime minister until the 2019 upper house
election.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
one risk on the horizon for the market concerns the possible criminal
prosecution of MOF officials. Crucial to the Abe administration’s attempt to
bring administrative and therefore political closure to the Moritomo affair was
the Prosecutor’s Office ‘s decision not to prosecute. However, concerned
citizens have recourse to a Committee for the Inquest of Prosecution, which
could force prosecution by a supermajority of 8 of its 11 members. (A simple majority
recommendation for prosecution can be overruled, if unlikely in my view in a
case of this import.) I am sure that a petition will be filed, if it has not
been already. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Committees, apparently
highly independent, meet in March, June, September, and December. A June session
should be too soon for a decision, but what about September? The LDP presidential
election happens to be on the schedule for September. Bet on an early election
and, if there is to be prosecution, subsequent turbulence in what has become
routine in recent years, an autumn/early winter, extraordinary Diet session.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">******<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Q:
Nikkei just reported that Aso will be returning 1 year's worth of salary over
the Moritomo issue. Is this kind of gesture common for Japanese ministers? I
haven't heard of it happening, but I've only been covering Japanese politics
for a couple of years... How sufficient is this in taking responsibility for
the scandal?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A.
Given how common this practice is, I’m sure ministers have done it before. (Ask
your research team.) But 12 months? That’s a level one only sees from heads of firms
facing catastrophic scandals. At this level, a minister of less importance to the
survival of the prime minister would hve resigned by now. Is it sufficient? I’ll
decline to answer it since only a person with authority to enforce judgement is
competent to do so.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Q:
MOF will be announcing its punishments for the scandal later today. Where do
things go from here? It seems like all official lines of inquiry have ended,
but is this issue still a political liability for Abe and Aso?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A.
The polls have stabilized and the experts’ consensus is that Abe will be reelected
as LDP president in September, allowing him to continue as prime minister. Abe
will do his best to keep Aso in the cabinet, since his support is crucial to the
stability of the Abe administration.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Q:
What is the likelihood that Aso has to step down as finance minister? Surely
the opposition will keep pushing for that, but they haven't been successful
thus far...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A.
His acceptance of 12 months without pay—not that he needs the money—actually indicates
that he will stay on. A September judgment for prosecution, enforceable or not—the
Prosecutor’s Office has three months to reply, but it should come to a head
before that—could push Aso even further, so there’s the possibility that he
will step down preemptively at the post-LDP election cabinet reshuffle or
forced to do so as the result of public outcry. I’d bet against it though.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Q:
What kind of impact will Moritomo exert on the Abe administration from here?
Its legislative agenda has been thrown into disorder already. Will that
continue, or will Abe finally be able to put this issue to rest?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A.
As already mentioned. Beyond that, even without a September redux, Abe’s public
support has been diminished permanently, though, making it more difficult for
him to push items on his agenda that do not have broad appeal. Think, constitutional
amendment, and deep labor reform.</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-88909107866501633622018-05-31T19:26:00.004+09:002018-05-31T19:26:57.093+09:00Memo on the U.S.-China Trade talks and the Japanese Experience<i>Q(journalist)&A(me)</i><br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">1.
The Trump model is the U.S.-Japan trade negotiations of the 1980s and early
1990s, what model will work better in your judgement?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 9.9pt; margin-top: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">They are difficult
to compare because they are two different approaches for two different
relationships, under two different historical circumstances. I would argue that
the US-Japan negotiations probably will wind up as having worked “better.” Let
me explain.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 9.9pt; margin-top: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 9.9pt; margin-top: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The United States
faced then, as now, a major economy in ascendance. However, the US economy was
widely seen to be in relative decline vis-à-vis Japan, an economy led by a
private sector over which the government had limited control. By comparison, it
is confidently riding the crest of a near-decade recovery from a global
financial crisis and is seen at the forefront of a new industrial
revolution—with China, a state capitalist economy if ever there was one, as its
main competitor. In addition, the United States had a robust security alliance
with Japan that remained unshaken throughout the trade friction years. The
security relationship with China, by contrast, is at bottom one of antagonism
between two hegemons. The latter point is particularly significant because the
Trump administration is explicitly linking one of its most important its
security goals—denuclearizing DPRK—to the bilateral trade relationship. At a
minimum, this complicates any deal because<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>the economic and security issues move on different timelines and
trajectories. At worst, resolution on both fronts become impossible because of
the complications. It certainly doesn’t help that Trump’s negotiating team is
hopelessly divided, while Trump himself does not have the expertise, knowledge,
or temperament to resolve the contradictions in a coherent manner. Also
complicating the calculations is the fact that the Chinese authorities, with
some justification, appear to believe that Trump’s business interests can be
leveraged to bring about a favorable resolution (for China). That, again, could
backfire.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">2.
The White House convinced Japan to accept export quotas in the 1980s when
President Ronald Reagan carried out a strategy of “managed trade.” It didn’t
happen this time with China. What is your take on this?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 9.9pt; margin-top: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">First of all, it’s
still early in the game regarding China. They’ve only had one round of
high-level talks. The relationship is set to worsen before it stabilizes,
hopefully in a way that is beneficial to the Japanese economy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 9.9pt; margin-top: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 9.9pt; margin-top: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Second, the Trump
administration has a cluster of demands, some that are connected to the trade
deficit, some that are connected to security, and still others that are
connected to investment in China, which arguably would worsen the trade
deficit. But it does not appear to have a coherent strategy. At worst (from the
global perspective), China could end up buying more commodities (agricultural
products, natural gas, etc.) from the US at the expense of China’s other
trading partners who would then seek to make up the difference by increasing
exports to other markets, while the more important microeconomic issues, mostly
technology- and IP-related go largely unaddressed. It would be ironic if the
only outcome was a rearrangement of trade patterns while trade and investment
balances remain virtually unchanged.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">3.
Many Japanese elites tell Chinese policy makers, they “should learn lessons
from Japan,” especially over the Plaza Accord. if you give suggestions to
Chinese policy makers, what lessons you believe China should learn from Japan?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 9.9pt; margin-top: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I wasn’t aware
that “many Japanese elites” were in the business of advising the Chinese
government and, frankly, the Chinese government surely has enough expertise and
experience to weigh the Japanese experience to determine its course of action
without outside help.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">4.
How do you compare the trade tension then to the current US-China one? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 9.9pt; margin-top: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 9.9pt; margin-top: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The trade tension
felt stronger then, but that’s surely because we were the other party to the
conflict and I had a role, albeit quite minor, in it. The current tension is
more worrisome because it is<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>part of a
geopolitical conflict that should long outlive the end of President Trump’s
current term.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 9.9pt; margin-top: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">5.
If any suggestions to Chinese, what would you say on how to deal with America?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 9.9pt; margin-top: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Well, obviously, I
want China to yield on investment and IP issues while standing firm on
quantitative targets. It’s an economic win (US)-win (China)-win (WTO) outcome.
But the decisionmakers surely do not see it that way. Beyond that, if someone
is willing to pay me to help devise a negotiating strategy, I’ll be happy to
oblige as long as I don’t find the objectives and the means morally
unacceptable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 9.9pt; margin-top: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 9.0pt; margin-right: 9.9pt; margin-top: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If we are to
believe what orthodox economists tell us, imposing no quotas, freely investing
in each other’s economies, and protecting IP under commonly-acceptable
standards—basically national treatment under market economy rules—would
maximize economic welfare for all the economies, and equity concerns could be
taken care of by national laws and regulations. And I also want a pony. But I’m
aware that sovereign states have different, politically-informed goals, China
dramatically, but the United States as well, particularly under the Trump
administration. So the pony should be the easiest part.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-91719102164669106632018-04-02T15:28:00.002+09:002018-04-02T15:28:33.571+09:00Womenomics and Stagnant Wages Pushing Japanese Women into the Workforce? Think Again.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I
don’t have the time to do justice to opinion pieces but from what I gather from
the headlines, Noah Smith appears to have given up on critiquing Japan’s political
and social scene and mostly focused on being an advocate for the Japanese
economy. Probably a wise career move. But his latest eye-catching headline “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-03-29/abenomics-looks-a-lot-like-reaganomics">Abenomics
Looks a Lot Like Reaganomics</a>”caught my attention, and I have this to say.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Dr.
Smith attributes the rise in the participation of women in the workforce to Prime
Minister Abe’s “Womenomics” and stagnant wages. But Dr. Smith’s graph shows
that Japan’s female labor force participation rate on the rise in 2013, effectively
the first year of the Abe administration. What were the “Womenomics” policies in
place off the bat that made this happen? As for stagnant wages, that’s a
decades-old problem. What has made it so relevant during the Abe administration
years?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There
is something missing from this narrative: the recovery from the 2008-2009
financial crisis and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster playing out
against the background of a declining working-age population and the current, synchronized
well-being of the global economy. In short, it is far more sensible to see the
rise in the labor force participation rate of Japanese women as a reflection of
the rise in the demand for flexible, non-regular (temp, part-time, etc.) labor
in a virtually full-employment environment. In other words, good old-fashioned,
supply-and-demand at work rather than any policy initiatives whose specifics
Dr. Smith would have a hard time identifying.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But
then, what do I know? I’m not an economist.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-456291034646239432018-03-31T11:52:00.000+09:002018-03-31T13:05:15.209+09:00Do You Think the Moritomo Affair Has Driven a Wedge between Abe and Aso? Think Again<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in;">
<span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">Aso criticized the media for prioritizing Moritomo over TPP, got
criticized himself, and the lefty media is playing it up and the righty media
is playing it down. I don’t think Aso will step down over this, but this does
give me a hook to address the speculation that the whole affair has driven a
wedge between Abe and Aso, who is supposed to be pissed off at Abe for causing
this issue in his bailiwick and mishandling it, according to this story line.
Maybe. But most people familiar with the political process would be surprised
if he were.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">Politicians and their
underlings call in on the bureaucracy about individual projects all the time.
Sometimes, they just have questions. Other times, they exert pressure. And no
one should be surprised. It’s what politicians do. Every inhabited spot on this
planet. Every time in human history. And the bureaucracy copes. Do the
political appointees in the Japanese Government mind? I don’t think so. After
all, they and their underlings are doing the same with the bureaucracy outside
of their jurisdiction as appointees, just as they did before and will be doing
long after their administrative tenures become distant memories. And you can be
sure that they never bother to notify their political colleagues about the
stuff they do under the latter’s jurisdiction unless they’re desperate for an extra
push—which will come at considerable political cost. And even if they care, it
would usually be futile for the political appointees to try to keep up with the
interventions anyway because (a) there are simply too many of them and (b) the
bureaucracy will be desperate to hide it all from the transitory political
appointees because they don’t need the complication.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">And even if I were completely
wrong, it would be odd for Aso to turn on some who has stood behind him through
multiple gaffes of his own through the years. In any case, Aso appeared to be
retaining his anger at the media even as he apologized.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0in; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">
<span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">I rest my case.</span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-16932803295701564572018-03-13T00:31:00.002+09:002018-03-13T00:31:51.507+09:00What Will Happen to Aso, Abe as the Result of the Latest Twists in the Morimoto Case?<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;">Memo, whacked out early evening on March 11 (Sun) in response to query from journalist. I wonder how much of this will hold up.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">So,
this Moritomo scandal. Where is it going. Aso likely to be toppled? What would
that mean for the administration and Abe’s re-election hopes? Could this spell
the end for the Teflon PM?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Things look grim for Finance Minister Aso.
More likely than not, he will resign, in which case some time will be gained to
push the Abe administration’s legislative agenda (though the key work-rule
amendment will be pushed back anyway). Beyond this Diet session, the most
important political consequences will be that first, Shinzo Abe will be
unlikely to win a third term as LDP president and remain prime minister.
Second, the headwind against Abe’s bid for constitutional amendment becomes
stronger. Perceived as a lame duck prime minister, I doubt that he will be able
to bring it to a national referendum. Let’s fill in some details.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Aso’s comments on Friday were crafted
to deny responsibility for the promotion of Mr. Sagawa, who had been the head
of the bureau in charge of the initial lease and sale of the land in question,
to the Director-General post at the National Tax Agency. This was necessary
because anything less would have immediately created irresistible pressure to
resign himself. Aso had almost certainly been unaware of the doctoring of the
document—in fact, I suspect that he was only casually aware of the case until
it surfaced in the media—but a Japanese leader is expected to fall on his/her
sword if the occasion warrants. And I think that it does in this case, where
there is a very good chance that someone in the bureaucracy will be subject to
criminal charges for an action that will be hard to explain away as being
nothing other than politically motivated.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But Aso’s resistance goes beyond his
personal interests. For if he resigns, the Abe cabinet itself will be in
danger, together with much of the momentum for its policy agenda. Unlike the
other ministers that resigned from the second Abe administration, Aso is a
political whale, the head of a major faction, a former prime minister! given
the extralegal title of deputy prime mister, and holding down the still
most-important Finance Ministry portfolio
since the beginning of Abe’s return to power. Political whales are no
longer what they used to be, but his resignation would be a much greater damage
than that of the relatively junior cabinet ministers that we have seen.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Moreover, Abe and his wife were personally
involved in the project that created that entire controversy that wound up spawning
the doctored document. The degree of their involvement is open to question, but
the other cases merely cast doubt on his judgment of character and capability.
This case had already implied the abuse of political power, of favoritism and
kowtowing. Now, the stench of fraud and criminality is threatening the
corridors of power. Pretty tame by current Brazilian or even White House
standards, but with a suicide adding spice to the story, the buck is unlikely
to stop at MOF and the MOF minister.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I do not believe that Abe will resign. He
is a stubborn man. He has a way of standing firmly behind causes that appear to
most disinterested observers as hopeless let alone his own political fate. And
I do not think that the rest of the LDP is sufficiently independent to make an
overt move to push him out. He should be able to serve out his second term.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 游明朝; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">But he no longer looks
like someone that current LDP Diet members, particularly those in their first
or second terms and those who squeak through by the regional proportional
safety-net as well as prospective candidates will be inclined to fight
elections under, even if the opposition remains divided. Thus, I do not think
that he will have the votes to prevail in a 2020 LDP leadership election, and I
think that this will become more obvious as the event draws near. As a virtual
lame-duck prime minister, he will lose so much of his political capital that he
will have extreme difficulty in bring constitutional amendment to a vote in the
Diet, let alone the national plebiscite. If he even enters into that state of
mind, the end of the Abe administration should come more quickly, possibly even
before the next Upper House election in 2019.</span><div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-397107597940504872018-01-27T23:37:00.002+09:002018-01-27T23:37:36.592+09:00The Nintendo Photo: When It All Began
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=32776756" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=32776756" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=32776756" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=32776756" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=32776756" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=32776756" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">The following is the bare-bones
background for an installment column I will be launching on the website of a
thinktank in April.</span></i></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">Omake
Books website, at <a href="https://omakebooks.com/fr/?fc=module&module=prestablog&controller=blog&id=142"><span style="color: #0563c1;">https://omakebooks.com/fr/?fc=module&module=prestablog&controller=blog&id=142</span></a>,
has a photo of the original home office of the playing card manufacturer that
became the gaming giant Nintendo, taken, it is widely believed, around its
establishment in 1889, when it began manufacturing traditional Japanese playing
cards, the </span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Yu Mincho",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">花札</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">(<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">hanafuda</i>) and most likely other forms of
the </span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Yu Mincho",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">かるた</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">(<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">caruta</i>), derived from the Portuguese word <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">carta</i>. I argue that it is more likely to have been taken around 1902,
when the firm began manufacturing paying cards.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">Evidence:</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">1)
Five signboards, from left to right.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 24px; text-indent: -9pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">A)
Upper left: The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">hiragana</i> </span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Yu Mincho",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">た</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">, obviously the last character
in </span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Yu Mincho",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">かるた</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">, and other indiscernible
writing are visible.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 24px; text-indent: -9pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">B)
Lower left: A small signboard depicting the Nintendo playing card hallmark –Napoleon
Buonaparte.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 24px; text-indent: -9pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">C)
Middle left: A weather-beaten, traditional signboard with illegible inscription
in small letters (vertical) and </span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Yu Mincho",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">かるた</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">(<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">caruta</i>) in large letters (horizontal, from
right to left).</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 24px; text-indent: -9pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">D)
Middle right: A small, triangular, weather-beaten signboard with the Marufuku (</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Yu Mincho",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">福</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">in
a circle) logo, </span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Yu Mincho",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">かるた製造元</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">
</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">(playing
card manufacturer; vertical), and </span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Yu Mincho",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">任天堂</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">
</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">(right
to left) on it.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 24px; text-indent: -9pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">E)
Right: An outsized, white signboard with MARUFUKU NINTENDO CARD CO. (left to
right) and</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Yu Mincho",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">?印欧米輸出向</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">
</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">(for
exports to ?, India(?), Europe and America; right to left) on top; Marufuku (</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Yu Mincho",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">福</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;"> in a circle) logo, </span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Yu Mincho",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">かるた製造元</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;"> (playing card
manufacturer; right to left), and Marufuku (</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Yu Mincho",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">福</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;"> in a circle) logo; and </span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Yu Mincho",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">山内任天堂</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">(Yamauchi
Nintendo; right to left). </span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">2.
The Bicycle</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 24px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">The bicycle is an old
make, with what appears to be a primitive stand.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">3.
The Building</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 24px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">A traditional Kyoto building
to which Western-style cast-iron grilling has apparently been added.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px 0px 0px 24px;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">1E)
is the giveaway. Nintendo started manufacturing the four-suit playing cards in
1902; an early example from 1903 survives in the United States. It is unthinkable
that the English name and the announcement of its overseas business could have
long, if at all, predated this turn of events. 1)E) and likely A) and B) must
have been added to the visibly older, traditional B) and C), more appropriate
for the initial domestic <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">hanafuda </i>business.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">The
stand is not conclusive. I thought it was a kickstand, a feature that early
bicycles did not have. However, I realized on second thought that it could be
an independent stand, which surely must have been available from the very early
days of the bicycle. The building is even more inconclusive. Mr. Yamauchi
purchased an existing house and adapted it to his purpose.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%; margin: 0px;">Could
the photo be of a much later provenance? Possibly, but it is likely to have
been taken at some milestone moment. The street has been cleared, the camera (and
the bicycle) has been carefully positioned; a quiet pride permeates the scene.
Launching its export operations would have been the perfect moment to take a
photo to include in its sales brochure, or whatever Nintendo printed up to project
its corporate image and pitch its products.</span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/FlorentGorgesFR/status/956210952487096320" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc; margin: 0px;">https://mobile.twitter.com/FlorentGorgesFR/status/956210952487096320</span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><a href="https://www.nintendo.co.jp/corporate/history/index.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc; margin: 0px;">https://www.nintendo.co.jp/corporate/history/index.html</span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><a href="https://omakebooks.com/fr/?fc=module&module=prestablog&controller=blog&id=142" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc; margin: 0px;">https://omakebooks.com/fr/?fc=module&module=prestablog&controller=blog&id=142</span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><a href="https://meiji150.kyoto/feature/haiko-nintendo-origin/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc; margin: 0px;">https://meiji150.kyoto/feature/haiko-nintendo-origin/</span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><a href="https://www.google.co.jp/search?q=%E4%BB%BB%E5%A4%A9%E5%A0%82%E9%AA%A8%E7%89%8C&oq=%E4%BB%BB%E5%A4%A9%E5%A0%82%E9%AA%A8%E7%89%8C&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l2.3543j0j4&client=tablet-android-asus-wypm&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#imgrc=3pvT9bgmcMfEjM" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc; margin: 0px;">https://www.google.co.jp/search?q=</span><span lang="JA" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "MS Gothic"; margin: 0px;">任天堂骨牌</span><span style="color: #1155cc; margin: 0px;">&oq=</span><span lang="JA" style="color: #1155cc; font-family: "MS Gothic"; margin: 0px;">任天堂骨牌</span><span style="color: #1155cc; margin: 0px;">&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l2.3543j0j4&client=tablet-android-asus-wypm&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#imgrc=3pvT9bgmcMfEjM</span></a>:</span></div>
<br />
<div style="line-height: normal; margin: 0px;">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0px;"><a href="http://japanese.engadget.com/2016/05/08/1/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #1155cc; margin: 0px;">http://japanese.engadget.com/2016/05/08/1/</span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<b></b><i></i><u></u><sub></sub><sup></sup><strike></strike><div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-89402798359304808392017-11-07T18:52:00.002+09:002017-11-07T21:38:30.758+09:00My Thoughts on a Japan Times Poll Cited by a Journalist <div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The thread can be found here:</span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/Okumura_Jun/status/927694967098679296"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">https://twitter.com/Okumura_Jun/status/927694967098679296</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I
believed that it was highly likely that The Japan Times’s survey was skewed
against Abe because its readership, from which the sample was drawn, was skewed
against. I thought that point was obvious when I used the Boston sports bar
simile. After all, it’s the bar’s patrons that you interview, not the
(inanimate) bar itself; The stand-in for The Japan Times was the location, the
city of Boston. (A Boston sports bar could, of course, have plenty of Red Sox
memorabilia and the like and the bartender would likely be a Bill Simmons type,
which would sure have an effect on the tendencies of its tendencies—but I
digress.) And I think that
disinterested parties will agree that David McNeill conceded as much as far as
the past was concerned when he tweeted, “The JT is under new management, doncha
know?”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ironically,
I’m the one who’s not so sure now. I had assumed that the responders to the
online survey would reflect years of getting their news on Abe and other
Japanese conservatives from the pages of JT. But nothing should have been
further from the truth. After all, the poll was supposed to reflect the views
of Japanese voters. If my casual observation on trains is any indication,
Japanese readers of JT are usually students or salaryhumans intent on improving
their English, not necessarily the most politically-motivated segment of the
Japanese public.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But
that’s where my doubts about the sampling process comes in. I did not write
“300-plus” casually. I remembered the number from the unusually hard to find JT
article as being in the high 300s. This is not insignificant. Reputable polls
typically use samples of 300, 500, and, what, 2000? 3000? Anyway, a sample in
the high 300s was anomalous, and statistically irrelevant—this layman’s
understanding is that the gain from a randomized sample of 500 compared to 300
is fairly small. Thus, I suspected—still do—that the sampling process was
self-selective, which suggested a sample skewed towards the highly-motivated
with a cosmopolitan outlook.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Of
course, there’s no way of knowing that unless we know how the survey was
conducted. Heck, we don’t even know if the sample consisted largely of Japanese
nationals. So, I went and looked, but to my consternation could not find the JT
article. No, I could not find it again, but decided to tweet anyway, working
from memory. Note, though, that raising the number to the 600s does not
alleviate my doubts at all. If anything, it exacerbates it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And
here’s where the responsibility of the journalist comes in. When a journalist
uses a poll number to illustrate a point, he/she’d better be sure of its
provenance, particularly when it is conducted by a media outlet whose
resources/capability to conduct a robust survey may be doubtful. It would
dangerous to cite such a poll without confirming how it was conducted and
preparing to answer questions about its veracity. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That
is why I find the fact that the comment “Feel free to cite your own survey on
high support for Abe-Trump bromance” is coming from a journalist rather
disturbing. As people who know my thinking knows well, I believe that one
difference between scientists and journalists (and pundits, if you insist) is
that the former uses evidence to test hypotheses and the latter uses it to
illustrate narratives. This is not a knock against journalists, investigative
journalists included. It’s an acknowledgement of the multitude of constraints
that journalists face when filing reports for the public. And it’s not as if
there isn’t a huge gray area in between that is inhabited by practitioners of
the soft sciences. But it does highlight the need for conscientious journalists
to be meticulous in weighing their evidence from all feasible angles. An
invitation to pick a survey of choice is an invitation of adopting standards
befitting more of a, say, Fox and Friends or, if that example is not to your
liking, SNL (I know, I know).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Finally,
for what it’s worth, my interest is not in whether a given poll is to my
liking—though it feels good when it does—but in questions like, “Why does the
LDP and its administration do better on Yomiuri polls than on Asahi
polls—except when it doesn’t?” The real money, by the way, is in the second
part of the question. Now, let’s see if McNeill really meant it when he wrote,
“Always pleasantly surprised by intelligent Twitter exchanges.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Sidebar:
I’ve noticed that people rarely acknowledge their mistakes on Twitter. Instead,
they usually just go away, at which point I’ve decided I’ll just declare
victory and move on. Even a “not necessarily” without commentary is better than
par for the course, doncha think?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(Typos corrected, same day.)</span></div>
</div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-22102517676215760862017-04-19T17:44:00.003+09:002017-04-19T17:44:48.071+09:00Unedited Crib Notes for 2017/4/17 FCCJ Event on Japan-US Bilateral Economic Dialogue<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Jun Okumura went straight from
school to what is now the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">After thirty years in its
ecosystem, though, it dawned on him that he had no aptitude whatsoever for
administration and/or management.</span> <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">Armed with this epiphany, he went to the authorities and
arranged an amicable separation</span>. He currently holds the titles of
“visiting researcher” at the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs (MIGA). <span style="background: yellow; mso-highlight: yellow;">He spends way too much time
saying mean things about everything under the sun. He does not mean to, which
probably makes it worse.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Minimal attention in Japan to Vice
President Vice Pence’s visit.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Anecdote: Friday conversation with
former CEO, First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, retired but follows news
fairly closely as private investor. “No, I wasn’t aware.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">1. Chances of any substantive
agreement even lower than usual first meetings because of Pence’s policy
background (largely domestic) and lack of support team.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Wilbur Ross, Secretary of Commerce<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of the
Treasury<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">But no US Trade Representative
(Robert Lighthizer), and second, third-tier political appointments slow in
coming. (Economy, probably less problematical, but…)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">2. Also overshadowed by North
Korea’s big day (and failed missile launch). Which Pence is totally unequipped
to handle on his own.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">3. Also overshadowed on Nikkei by
11-nation TPP (Nikkei, April 15)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Also keep in mind that on the
economic front, it’s China, NAFTA (= Mexico), and Japan, in that order.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">On the Japanese side, Deputy Prime
Minister Taro Aso has historically been a front man for Ministry of Finance
orthodoxy, no more, no less.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">What Round 1 (April 18-19) of the
Japan-U.S. Economic Dialogue (Pence-Aso talks) will produce:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Three WGs to tackle:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">1) Economic cooperation: (infrastructure (high-speed rail), energy
(unconventional gas and oil))<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">“…exploring
cooperation across sectors that promote mutual economic benefits to the United
States and Japan.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Dressing
up public procurement and commercial transactions to have something to point to
as successful results.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">2) Macroeconomic collaboration<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">“…using
the three-pronged approach of mutually-reinforcing fiscal, monetary, and
structural policies to strengthen domestic and global economic demand.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">US
goal: Keep Japan from driving down yen.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Japanese
goal: Keeping a free hand on monetary policy (and the direct intervention
option).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">3) Bilateral framework on trade and
investment<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">“…discussions
between the United States and Japan on a bilateral framework as well as Japan
continuing to advance regional progress on the basis of existing initiatives”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">“…deepening
their trade and investment relations and of their continued efforts in
promoting trade, economic growth, and high standards throughout the
Asia-Pacific region.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Japanese
goal: Rope the United States back into TPP. (Used to think Abe was nuts, and
that he should go for a TPP-11. But maybe they are compatible.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">US
goal: Get a better bilateral deal than it got in TPP.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">The easy ones first. 1) Economic
cooperation: and 2) Macroeconomic collaboration.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">1) Economic cooperation: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">The
Japanese Government wants to help Japanese businesses sell “high-quality
infrastructure” overseas. Essentially, high-speed railway systems. JBIC and
NEXI can provide long-term financing, but they don’t need the Talks for that.
The US doesn’t either. It could actually be harmful if it stood in the way of
international consortiums, which it won’t. The outcome will be the result of
international competition with the groups coming up with the most attractive
package of performance, financing and operation conditions, and local
production, not necessarily in that order.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">2) Macroeconomic collaboration:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Japan
last intervened in November 2011 when it was around 78JPY=1USD, where it
remained for most of 2012. Barring another global financial crisis, it’s hard
to see Japan intervening again.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">On
the other hand, Prime Minister Abe caused a stir by talking about the salutary
effect of quantitative easing on the exchange rate. Abe went on to deny the
linkage, but people remember, partly because it’s actually true. But for now,
the macroeconomic circumstances are such that this is something you can keep at
the back of your minds.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">And now:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">3) Bilateral framework on trade and investment<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Why
does Abe want TPP? (Many angles, but boils down to)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">a.
Key element of Abenomics: 2.7 percentage-point boost to Japanese GDP by 2030
(WB).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">b.
Depoliticize international trade and investment relations. (Another way of
saying Keep China in check. Case in point: rare metals scare. More recently,
retaliation against THAAD.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">c.
Keep the United States engaged in Asia (as a foil for the regional hegemon
China). It’s not just about the economy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Why
does Trump want a bilateral deal?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">To
prove that he can cut a better deal than Obama.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; tab-stops: 134.85pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Key US actors: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Anti-deal:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">1.
US automakers (Chrysler? Really?)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; tab-stops: 134.85pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 游明朝;">Want:</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"> inconvenience competitors’ global
sourcing, manufacturing and marketing strategies. Reduce their flexibility. Platforms are going
global!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Not
want: Open up Japanese market.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">GM:
Gave up on Isuzu. Ford: Gave up on Mazda. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Better
deal:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">2.
Pharmaceuticals: Biologics data protection 12 years (TPP: 5, effectively 8,
Japan and Canada, currently)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">TPP
deal:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">1.
US beef and pork industry. Lost market share to Australia, Canada and NZ due to
mad cow disease. Has been making gradual but steady comeback, now overshadowing
Australia in supermarkets. Will suffer as tariff rates on Australian meat go
down over time. (So will Canada, NZ.) <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">2.
Copyright owners: 70-year post-mortem works for them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Likelihood?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Better deal? Linkage got a lot more
difficult as Mike Flynn (LOL), Mad Dog Mattis and now H.R. McMaster have pulled
Trump ever more deeply into center-right national security establishment
against more general background of mainstreaming Trump as a GOP president.
Japan is a clear, major military asset for the United States. (ROK is vastly
more ambiguous.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">US meat industry gets antsy as time
goes by.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Disney gets antsy as Japan (and TPP-11)
refuse to adopt 70-year post-mortem copyright protection.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Long-term, US auto manufacturers will
start worrying if Thailand et al decide to join TPP-11. Can India be far
behind?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">TPP-11 may be the lever that brings
the United States back. And Abe knows it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-24826613297825515692017-02-09T18:21:00.002+09:002017-02-09T18:21:34.811+09:00On the Eve of the Abe-Trump Summit<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt; text-indent: -7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">-
Key things to watch out for in Abe-Trump meeting<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt; text-indent: -7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Anything out of kilter
from the following. Because if there is, that will be the big headline that
everyone will be talking about. One way to annoy Trump? Go on at length about
the virtues of TPP. <i>Are you trying to
tell me Obama was right, and I’m wrong</i>? One way to annoy China? Specifically
mention East China Sea and South China Sea… and THAAD.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Expect:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Overall, warm and
cordial. The entire visit is being stage-managed that way. And Prime Minister Abe
brings that out from <s>authoritarian</s> <s>willful</s> strong leaders (Putin,
Erdogan, Mugabe…). Besides, President Trump is actually a good host/guest. It’s
usually the CNN coverage and twitter feed that get him worked up.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">1) On the economy:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">From the US side, the
imb</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">alance in automobile trade; from the Japanese side, how Japan has eliminated
tariffs and changed regulations to accommodate imports, and what wonderful
things Japanese automakers and others are doing to create jobs in the United
States.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">From the US side, a
bilateral FTA, under which currency manipulation should be addressed. From the
Japanese side, <i>Monetary Policy and FOREX Market
Intervention 101, </i>and an expression of willingness to<i> </i> take up FTA as an issue in
a high-level political dialogue.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">2) On security</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Expression
of concern on regional security issues; and firm commitment to the bilateral
alliance, relocation of US forces including the new helicopter base at Henoko,
and a Japanese commitment to keep increasing defense speeding (this last merely
a confirmation of the 2%/year increase in
real terms in FY 2014-2018 defense plan increases)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">3) General<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">An Aso-Spence high-level
dialogue going forward, where discussions on a future FTA are likely to end up
among other things. “Deputy Prime Minister” is a description, not a legal
title, but Aso is a former prime minister with only a one-year tenure, useful
to trot out when a run-of-the-mill cabinet minister won’t do but the prime
minister would be too much. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt; text-indent: -7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">-
Top hot button issues between Abe and Trump (eg trade, currency etc)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt; text-indent: -7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I don’t really see a hot
button issue, if by hot button issue you mean something that has a serious
chance of directly upsetting the bilateral relationship. There is no JAFTA that
the United States could threaten to pull out of. Heck, the Trump administration
hasn’t even shown any signs that it will designate China as a currency
manipulator any time soon. I do expect that Japan will eventually enter negotiations
on a bilateral FTA and that the FTA will ultimately include a currency clause, <i>if such a clause is acceptable to the United
Kingdom</i>. The Trump administration needs something to point to as being
better than TPP, and I don’t see much elsewhere, except perhaps up to a 12
years’ protection on biologicals data.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt; text-indent: -7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">-
Views on the future of Japan-US relations under Trump and Japan-US-China
relations<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt; text-indent: -7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The US-Japan bilateral relations
will be fine. The Detroit Three (in terms of headquarters only; and is Chrysler
really a “US” company?) will keep on carping, but only to inconvenience their
competitors, not to engage in the Japanese market. They gave up controlling
stakes in Japanese automakers years ago, and the Japanese market is in the very
early stages of its senescence. And Japan as a military base on the cheap is a
genuine military asset for the United States, unlike, say, South Korea.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s the Japan-US-China
triangle that worries me. Japan has been passive towards China on economic
issues. I suspect that the Trump administration will want the Abe
administration to be more engaged on industrial espionage charges, IP issues
more broadly, as well as other, less politically charged problems. But Japan has little leverage against China. And
more vulnerable to counter-pressure. Security is even more problematical, since
the Abe administration see China as Japan’s most important security threat,
followed by North Korea, which is also China’s Whitey Bulger if you will. Again,
if and when the United States escalates and Japan follows, Japan will feel the
heat. Remember, if the US forces suddenly disappeared from Japan, North Korea would
stop caring about Japan. So would China (although it might decide that it was
high time to seize the Senkaku Islands altogether, which is a good reason for
making sure that the US forces remain). Japan is not exactly a mouse, but a
mongoose, say, will also suffer mightily when elephants fight.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt; text-indent: -7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">-
Views on the future of Japan's investments in the US<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt; text-indent: -7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There are likely to be cases
where <b>Japanese businesses already based
in the United States </b>decide to reinvest in the United States to be on the
safe side, particularly until there’s more clarity on how NAFTA is likely to
end up. We’ll never be sure, though, because it will be just one of the factors
in the cost/benefit analysis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Likewise, <b>major greenfield investment decisions</b>
by new entries will also affected. They don’t want to find out later that the
Trump Hotel that they checked into has turned into <i>Hotel California.</i> .The Trump administration will not be around forever,
but it could be up to eight years, and who’s to say that the United States will
return to normal post-Trump?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Certain
mergers and acquisitions</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> will be a little less attractive for
truly global companies, since there is likely to be political pressure over cross-border
consolidation. <i>Hotel California</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The <b>infrastructure investments</b> that Mr. Abe will be talking about is
what I call his no-regrets policy in investment. Something that he would be doing
anyway. Support for exporting “high-quality” infrastructure is an important feature
of Abenomics 2.0. Essentially, the Japanese Government will provide financial
support to Japanese firms bidding for infrastructure projects. Local manufacturing
will be an important factor in the tender process. And the eventual outcome,
years from now, may be very different from the headline numbers of today. But
that’s always the case in investment deals packaged for summit pageantry.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt; text-indent: -7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">-
Anything in particular you would like to discuss?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt; text-indent: -7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 7.1pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">No.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-7933012847348855682016-04-24T20:10:00.002+09:002016-04-24T20:10:24.252+09:00Abenomics and the Limpness of the Third Arrow<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
fundamental problem with Abenomics is that Mr. Abe does not have a coherent
perspective on economic reform to work from, whether from personal expertise
(he is not a trained economist and has minimal business experience), conviction
(the economy is far from his first love), or through an economic czar to
delegate the task to (there is no Heizo Takenaka to Junichiro Koizumi, no Zhu
Rongji to Jiang Zemin). This was not been a problem for releasing the first QE
arrow, essentially following in the footsteps of US and European monetary
orthodoxy. The only meaningful opposition came from the Keidanren leadership,
reflecting the elderly businessmen’s natural suspicion of easy money. But the
businesses themselves? Probably not as reluctant to embrace what should be good
for their bottom line. Besides, Keidanren had progressively lost its political
relevance since it gave up the role of super-bundler for financing the LDP. The
second, fiscal arrow, meanwhile, was essentially an extension of what the LDP
and politicians in general are inclined to do and have been doing through the
ages: spend public money.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
third arrow, which is (was?) structural reform, is a different animal. Reform
requires whacking away at vested interests, but when you’ve been in charge for
the better part of 60 years of a highly homogeneous society like the LDP, most
of those vested interests will also be your bedrock constituencies. A difficult
task indeed, and made more difficult by the lack of leadership. The uneasy
coalition-secretariat of ministry bureaucrats do appear to have a core of
consisting largely of the usually reform-minded METI, but without political
vision and leadership, there is no way to take measures that run the risk of
the dissatisfaction of vested interests and their ministerial representatives
boiling over. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;">Here,
the one notable exception to Abe’s unwillingness to seriously challenge
powerful vested interests is instructive: his decisions around the
Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. I believe that here, his main concern
was the perceived need to reinforce the Japan-US alliance and cement the US
pivot/rebalancing towards Asia—basically keeping the US onside. Barring such
non-economic concerns, only incremental, largely tactical advances as far as
the third arrow/structural reform is concerned are likely to emerge.</span><div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-5959726249205231472016-01-25T20:31:00.001+09:002016-01-25T20:31:34.900+09:00Political Dying Wishes? Not in Japan or (Mostly) in America<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A close friend of mine who read “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/24/the-dead-people-of-america-really-dont-want-hillary-clinton-to-be-president/">The
dead people of America really don’t want Hillary Clinton to be president</a>” and
asked if we “Japanese make such requests in obituaries? I doubt Europeans do. I guess one other example of American
exceptionalism.” I responded:<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Few
Americans make such death wishes; these are examples of "exceptional"
Americans, not American "exceptionalism." More generally, they are
examples of the tradition of the dying wish—last meal of the condemned,
"No grass shall grow on the grave of this innocent man..." "Bury
me where this arrow falls" etc. etc.—that has a long Anglo-Saxon and I
suspect European tradition.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">We
do not have that tradition in Japan. The increasingly rare newspaper obituaries
are almost always prosaic, formulaic even, affairs. We did have the tradition
of the poem as one leaves this world (</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "MS 明朝",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">辞世の句</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">)
in the 5-7-5/7-7 <i>tanka</i> form (with the
5-7-5 haiku form becoming acceptable far more recently). If people of any substance
(or people close to them) were not skilled enough to compose one, they could
pay for-hire poets to do it for them. In fact, some wealthy nobles would hire
them full time, much like illiterate European nobles hired scribes to do their
writing for them, at a time when composing such poetry for any and all
occasions public or private was de rigeur.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Those
last poems, though, were typically meant to be words of wisdom, an intangible
epitaph that exemplified the life of the dying, usually not a wish. The most
famous by far are the words of the near-mythical robber Ishikawa Goemon, who is
reputed to have said as he was about to be boiled in oil (yes, we did that too
around the rough and tumble warlord years), "Ishikawa and the sands of the
shores may come to an end, but the seeds of robbers will not (my
translation)."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(Edited
for clarity.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Footnote:
Apparently, it was a Trump tweet that touched off all the commotion. Will the
US media never tire of him?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-10954482469455006982015-12-26T19:00:00.002+09:002015-12-26T19:28:04.219+09:00Helping William Sposato Make the Japanese Labor Force Story Sausage<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I
am quoted <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/23/a-surge-in-womens-employment-is-driving-japans-economy/">here</a>.
Here are the salient parts of the two exchanges behind it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">"…there has been less attention
on the decline in the male participation rate, especially among young males (it
has fallen from 97% in 1997 to under 94% today). Getting that back to its
previous level would add 1% to the workforce overall."<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Some,
perhaps much, of that should be accounted for by a rise in young males seeking
higher education. A Wikipedia entry shows that there has been a 10.3 percentage
point rise between 1997 and 2013 (using 5% for junior colleges for 2013.) No,
this does not distinguish between males and females (it is likely that the rise
has been steeper for females), and yes, many students are likely to be counted
as part of the workforce, busking tables and the like. Still, you cannot make a
robust point about raising the male participation rate without looking into
this. And for that, you need to look at the original data, which should be
available through the MEXT website.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">******<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">1. With PM Abe apparently ruling out
immigration, do you see any way to bring back the size of the labor force amid
an overall declining population?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
first thing to keep in mind is that anything that the Japanese government can
do to raise the birth rate will have very little effect on the labor force for
at least 18 years (19 years to be precise.) A major expansion of the “training”
system? But Abe will be gone in three years; I suspect that future leaders will
be more amenable to a gastarbeiter program with prospects for permanent
resident status leading to citizenship drawing from China, Indonesian, and (why
not?) North Koreans.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">2. Do you think that labor participation is
an important goal or should the focus be elsewhere, such as in pushing up
productivity?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Governments
can provide a better institutional framework for labor participation, that’s
for sure, and the Abe administration is oriented in the right direction on
that. But pushing productivity? I don’t know enough to understand what the
government can do about that.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">3. What steps do you think the government
should be taking?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;">Dunno. But I can list a few things that do not require fiscal appropriation but are not being done.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; line-height: 17.12px;"><i>(The following was missing from the original post.)</i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; line-height: 17.12px;">1) Set an example. Make a pledge that every make cabinet member and subcabinet political appointee will undertake 25% of the housework when he leaves office and 50% when he retires from politics.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; line-height: 17.12px;">2) Make changing surnames on marriage optional.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; line-height: 17.12px;">3) Cut 10% of non-need-based welfare payments to the elderly and use it for childcare.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; line-height: 17.12px;">4) Eliminate all fiscal incentives for marriage and use the savings for childcare.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; line-height: 17.12px;">4. Do you think Womenomics has been more PR than substance?</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; line-height: 17.12px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background-color: yellow; line-height: 17.12px;">There’s plenty of both, but not enough of the latter. Now if I were Abe, I would focus on the birth rate, with Womenomics the corollary.</span></span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-18345042466959355232015-12-26T18:49:00.000+09:002015-12-26T18:49:33.722+09:00On Foreign Minister Kishida’s Upcoming Trip to Seoul<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">I whacked
out the following answers to the questions from a media organization. I know
that it will not use a certain part of it in its report, so here’s it is, for public
viewing in its entirety.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">What are the prospects for progress in the
comfort woman talks when Japanese and SKorean foreign ministers meet Monday?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">I will be
astounded if the two foreign ministers do not come forth with a substantive and
irreversible framework for resolution.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">What would that mean for bilateral
relations? What do the two sides stand to gain from improving relations?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">It should
produce an immediate improvement in the background to the bilateral relations,
which should lead most prominently to more Korean entertainment (TV programs,
pop groups) coming Japan’s way and more Japanese tourists going the other way.
Prospects for progress in the Japan-China-ROK FTA negotiations will also be
marginally improved. Over the long-run, if the improvement holds, the direct
investment climate will also improve, leading to more synergy between the two
economies. Beyond the economic, we can expect better cooperation between the
two militaries and more broadly security establishments, which should please Washington
no end.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">What other sticking points are there in
moves to repair relations between the two sides?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">There’s the
back wages of the conscripted workers (about which I could go on forever, as
someone close to be was a conscripted Japanese student worker who went on to
work after the war at a company that had employed Korean workers (as well as
Japanese student workers, presumably)), but I suspect that the Blue House will
lean on the courts, who are themselves good at reading the prevailing public
view. There’s Takeshima, but South Korea has possession, so what the Japanese
authorities have to say and do about it is of less significance than the
symbolism that the comfort women issue has taken on. Another Yasukuni visit by
a Japanese prime minister would be problematic, but it’s more of a China
issue—Korea never fought a war against Japan, so the Class A war criminals are
not their problem—and the last thing that Mr. Abe wants to do at this point is
to provoke Mr. Xi Jinping and the PLA unnecessarily.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-14629800868800700022015-11-02T11:34:00.000+09:002015-11-02T11:37:39.885+09:00My July 16 CRI Q&A on Peace and Security Legislation (and Japan-China Relations)<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I
also found that the CRI website claims that I said that “<a href="http://english.cri.cn/12394/2015/07/17/3961s887693.htm">the security
bills go against Japan's pacifist constitution</a>” when it passed the lower
house. Nothing of the sort. Sure, I'm critical of the way the Abe administration handled the issue. The following is the script. Haven't heard the audio, but I don't think that I said anything that could have led to a misunderstanding.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">1 First up, could you please tell us
what collective self-defence is? How does it influence Japan’s military?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Simply
put, it’s an arrangement where two or more countries in an alliance agree to
come to the defense of the others. In Japan’s case it is going to be very
limited because we will only come to the defense of its allies when those
allies are acting in defense of Japan. Aegis, Japan Sea, DPRK. It will help
coordinate operations with the United States in the nearby area.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">2 The bill now awaits the approval of
both the lower and upper houses of Japan’s parliament. How do you evaluate the
likelihood of it getting passed? If it gets passed, how will it influence
Japan’s position regionally and globally?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Almost
100%. It will make Japan a more active player in UN sanctioned operations, but
strictly in a non-combat role, unless you count minesweeping operations as
combat. It will enable the Self-Defense Forces to work more seamlessly with
Japan’s allies, mainly the United States. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">3 There were protest going on outside
the parliament building when the voting happened. Also opposition lawmakers
shouted their disapproval and mobbed the chairman of the committee who was in
charge of the voting. AP even reported that some began slapping and grabbing
him. Is this common phenomenon in Japanese politics? What does the intensity
tell us?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Protests
around the Diet complex are not that unusual, but physical altercations in the
Diet have been rare in recent years. There are many people, including the
overwhelming majority of constitutional scholars, who strongly believe that the
reinterpretation to allow collective self-defense is unconstitutional. More
generally, there is a broader, and vague, fear that the bills—not just the
constitutional reinterpretation—could draw Japan into war. On the first point,
I am not a constitutional scholar, though I note that most constitutional
scholars used to think that the Self-Defense Forces were unconstitutional, but
they no longer do. On the second point, I strongly disagree. However, the Abe
administration has done a poor job of explaining what is a very complicated
political compromise legislation to the public, and the Liberal Democratic
Party has made a couple of serious tactical blunders along the way, adding fuel
to the fire.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">4 Shotaro Yachi, Japan’s National
Security Advisor is now visiting China at the invitation of Chinese State
Councilor Yang Jiechi. The two met in Beijing last year and reached a four
point consensus aiming at restore relations between the two.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">----How would read the timing of his
visit this time?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
bilateral political relationship is on the mend, but August 15 is only a month
away. What Prime Minister Abe says on the 70<sup>th</sup> anniversary of the
end of the war will be crucial in keeping the process on-track. I’m sure the
Chinese authorities would appreciate some reassurance from Mr. Abe’s most
trusted envoy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">----So what are the possible topics
that might be discussed during his visit this time?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Beyond
the anniversary statement, I assume that Chinese activities around the Senkaku
Islands and in the East China Sea near the median line will be raised by the
Mr. Yachi, and the Chinese authorities may wish to know what Japanese
intentions are in the South China Sea. Talk will not change anything, but it’s
better than not talking to each other at all, because it helps keep these
matters of contention from doing harm to the broader relationship. I am sure
that there will also be talk on broader, more positive issues, and there may be
a renewed invitation to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and/or talk
on cooperation with the Asian Development Bank, but I don’t see much happening.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">5 There are speculations that Abe
might meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and attend commemoration activities of
the World War II in this coming September. If the two countries really want the
meeting of two to happen, what are further needed to be done from both sides?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In
his 70<sup>th</sup> anniversary statement, Mr. Abe should hold to the line that
he expressed in his speech to the U.S. Congress. A specific reference to China
would be highly desirable. The Chinese authorities would very much like to hear
a specific reference to the Murayama Statement, though I would be surprised if
Mr. Abe did so. On the Japanese side, no Chinese escalation around the Senkaku
Islands and more broadly, the East China Sea.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">6 Former Japanese Prime Minister
Fukuda Yasuo is also reportedly visiting China. What is his mission and how he
might help improve ties between the two sides?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I
am not informed well enough to know what he’s doing there specifically, but the
fact that a former Japanese prime minister who is very well-liked in China is
shuttling back and forth, presumably with Mr. Abe’s blessing, surely helps to
calm the waters and keep it that way.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">7 On another note, Chinese Vice
President Li Yuanchao has met with a group of war-displaced Japanese orphans
who were raised by Chinese families after World War II. We know that there are
also people from this group of orphans who returned to Japan later.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">----How are they coping with life in
Japan?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I
am not well-informed. All I can say is that some are coping better than others.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">----The orphans left in China to a
certain degree have helped tighten the ties between people of the two
countries. What other measures do you think should be taken to further promote
people to people exchanges between the two countries?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It
certainly reminded us of the good will that existed at the people-to-people
level that endured the brutality of war, and the kindness was not forgotten
here in Japan. I don’t have any specific ideas, but there needs to exist a
sense among the common folks in Japan that China is a safe and healthy place
where we Japanese are welcomed. This will come from the perception of Japanese
journalists, businessmen, and tourists, not from government-sponsored
exchanges.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-53455984163674960322015-10-29T03:05:00.001+09:002015-10-29T03:05:05.356+09:00East Asia Trilateral Summit<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">1: The China-ROK-Japan Trilateral
Summit is expected to be resumed over the weekend after a 3-year hiatus. Can
you first give us a brief introduction to the background of this meeting this
time?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I
believe that the gradual but steady thawing of the Japan-China from the spring
of 2014 including the two summits on the edges of multilateral sessions has set
the stage for normalization of the political relationship. More specifically, I
believe that the bilateral improvement spurred South Korea to seek a
rapprochement of its own. And what better venue for this than the trilateral
summit, which is South Korea’s turn to host—a home game, if you will? And Japan
has always been working tirelessly to this end. Indeed, it is unnatural for the
heads of three neighbors with deeply intertwined economies and highly reliant
on the global market for manufactured exports and commodity imports not to
discuss issues of common interest and/or concern. Moreover, each of the three
economies now faces serious structural challenges that it must confront
forcefully or suffer the long-term consequences. The trilateral summit goes a
long way in defusing a political distraction.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">2: What sort of issues do you expect
that this summit will try to focus on? How important are they to the three
countries?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A
recent news report says that they will confirm cooperation in such areas as
disaster prevention, the environment, and tourism, and talk about cybersecurity
and making progress on the China-ROK-Japan FTA. Now the summit will have no
substantial bearing on most of these matters. They would move ahead just as
smoothly if the three heads kept kicking the trilateral can down road. One
exception is that it would give the ROK authorities sufficient political cover at
home if they decide to seriously pursue the trilateral FTA.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">3: The three countries also resumed
negotiations over the China-ROK-Japan FTA. China and ROK have already signed a
bilateral FTA. The obstacles apparently remain between China and Japan as well
as ROK and Japan. How likely do you think that they may make a breakthrough?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
three governments will behave constructively on the trilateral FTA. However, I
am rather pessimistic about the prospects for a breakthrough. ROK does not have
much to gain, since Japan already imports most manufactured products tariff-free.
And why would ROK want to compete in the Chinese market with Japan on an equal
footing? As for China, I’m sure that it wouldn’t mind having Japan compete with
ROK for its favors on an equal footing, but as I said, Japan already imports
most manufactured products tariff-free, so there’s not as much urgency for
China than there is for Japan. And, of course, it takes three to tango. I will
be very happy, though, if I’m proven wrong.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">4: South Korea and China are not
members of the TPP. How will this affect China-ROK-Japan FTA negotiation? Will
this pushed the two countries to seek an early conclusion of the
China-ROK-Japan FTA negotiations?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I
think that it affects ROK negatively with regard to the trilateral FTA. I
expect ROK to focus on joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which
promises more substantial benefits than a trilateral FTA and is unlikely to
include China in the near future. As for China, I believe that it will find
that the TPP hurdle is too high, but a trilateral FTA is too small a
consolation prize. Instead, I expect China to focus on another broad-scope
trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which
will also serve as a geopolitical counterweight to TPP.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">5: Earlier this week, China’s state
councilor Yang Jiechi visited Japan, where he met with Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe. Both sides expressed the willingness to improve ties. Can we see
this meeting as well as the upcoming summit as a thaw in relations between
China and Japan? Why do you think that this is happening even when the key
thorny issues between the two sides still remain unsolved?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This
is the culmination of a painstaking process of rapprochement since Prime
Minister Abe’s visit to Yasukuni in 2013. The “key thorny issues” are mostly
matters of perception; on their own, they have very little tangible effect on
the real world. Japan is not executing a landfills and building air strips on
the Senkaku Islands. China is not digging for oil on the Japanese side of the
median line. And so on. Now, Prime Minister Abe issued a 70<sup>th</sup>
Anniversary statement that was tolerable to the Chinese authorities, and has
stayed away from Yasukuni. There remained no reason that the heads of two
neighboring countries highly reliant on manufactured exports and commodity imports
should not meet to give their blessings to engagement in areas of common
interest and/or concern.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">6: Do you expect the summit to add
strength to the China-Japan trade relations, which are going downhill since
2012?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I
expect it to make Japanese-brand goods and services marginally more acceptable,
but not by much. For better or worse, it has been business-as-usual on the
economic front for the last couple of years, and so it will remain. The vector
of the bilateral trade relations will mostly be determined by the same factors
that affect the rest of China’s trade relations. You know, things such as what
China will or won’t do with regard to what it considers to be strategic
industries or flagship companies, whether Chinese wages keep going up, and so
on.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">7: Will this summit have any impact
on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in any way?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">No.
The most that I expect to emerge from the summit on this issue is some vaguely
worded admonishment of North Korea. China is the only one that can turn the
screw hard enough to force North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons and
ballistic missile programs completely, and it probably would if it could do so
without decisively destabilizing the North Korean regime. But it is not going
to risk the collapse of the Kim dynasty just to make Japan feel safe, or even
to make the United States happy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-23939703166201025072015-04-26T16:50:00.003+09:002015-04-26T16:50:46.923+09:00Good Luck, Mr. Abe…<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Let’s see…<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Cheer up friends of America in the Middle
East: President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Egypt, check; King Abdullah, Jordan,
check; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, check. DONE!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Bind Japan more tightly to US
security policy: change interpretation of Constitution to allow collective
self-defense, check; push base relocation to Henoko against Okinawa’s wishes,
check; fully engage the U.S.-centric weapon systems development network, check.
DONE!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">Support U.S. global economic
structure: commit to TPP negotiations, check; stay away from Asian Infrastructure
Development Bank, check… um, only two? Oh well, done.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">All supported by the Obama administration,
but even more copacetic for the Republican Congress. But did the rumored coolness
between Prime Minster Abe and President Obama also help the former secure this speech
before a joint session of Congress? Not nearly Netanyahu-Obama bad, but still,
I wonder.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;">I can already see the post-talk editorials
lining up, <i>WSJ</i> on one end, <i>NYT</i> on the other, and <i>WaPo</i> somewhere in between. I also think
that I could write an op-ed on any and all points of that spectrum (I don’t
know, extended out to <i>BBC,</i> say) send
them out now, with little need to edit them after the speech. But it would be
so much more fun if Mr. Abe proves me wrong and surprises us all.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-34727844934116876142015-04-25T22:17:00.001+09:002015-04-25T22:17:41.848+09:005No Bilateral TPP Deal until Final Collective Deal<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There,
I’ve said it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There
has been a lot of public doodling by the media and analysts around the progress,
impasses and, in the fevered imagination of Yomiuri Shimbun, “effective
agreement” at various stages in the TPP negotiations between the United States
and Japan. Now, I’m seeing reports that there will be no deal during Prime
Minister Abe’s visit to Washington.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And
that’s news?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Give
me a break. It’s not even about TPA. Look, no bilateral deal will be made
public until all the bilateral deals have been cut. To illustrate, let’s say
that Japan and the United States make a deal on beef that is more favorable to
the United States than the one that Australia got in their bilateral FTA with
Japan. That would displease the Australian government, who would want a similar
deal from Japan. But not only is that likely to induce the Japanese government to
demand a quid pro quo but would also displease U.S. and Japanese beef producers,
who would make new, mutually conflicting demands of their own. So any bilateral
deal on tariffs will have to be kept under wraps until all the chickens come
home to roost, as it were.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">So
what was all the “negotiating” about? My guess is that it was a mixture of
sounding out the other side to figure where and what the real issues and the other
side’s priorities were, ironing out technical issues, establishing and
reinforcing relationships with the other side so that the endgame could proceed
expeditiously, and otherwise doing their best to minimize glitches along the
way. The rest, I would argue, was camouflage.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I
could, of course, be wrong. But I think that I’ve done a better reading of the
process so far than most. And I’m not worried that I’ll be proven wrong this
time either.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-38540183962497911192015-04-24T17:24:00.001+09:002015-04-24T17:24:48.524+09:00A Few More Words regarding Prime Minister Abe’s Bandung Speech<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If
Japanese media reports are to be believed, China is officially disappointed
that Prime Minister Abe did not assume responsibility and South Korea is
officially disappointed because he did not refer to “colonial rule.” I’m not
sure what the operative meaning of “responsibility” is here for the Chinese
government. Is it for domestic consumption, to prepare the Chinese public for further
improvement of bilateral relations? South Korea frets, in case anyone missed
the point, because “colonial rule,” not “the war,” is the source of its
complaint. And how bad was it for the Koreans compared to, say, Native Americans
or Australian aborigines? Look to the biographies of their most recent Presidents
Geun-hye Park and Lee Myung-bak for perspective.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And
while we’re on the subject of Native Americans and Australian aborigines, if Americans
and Australians of European descent want to jump on the bandwagon criticizing Mr.
Abe’s latest speech, shouldn’t they apologize and go back to Europe first? I
mean, clean hands and all? At least we left. (Okay, not of our own volition.
Still…) As for Germans who want to chime in, have you petitioned your government
to respond positively to Greek demands for multibillion Euro reparations, or do
you agree with your finance mister that a deal is a deal so the Greeks should
STFU?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But
if you must, please at least have the decency to remember that “China and South
Korea” and “Asia” are not interchangeable terms. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Okay.
Rant over. Back to real life.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-88966695791170115462015-04-23T12:51:00.001+09:002015-04-23T12:51:22.975+09:00Prime Minister Abe’s Speeches<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Good
friend Paul Sracic has been invited to attend Prime Minister Abe’s speech before
a joint session of Congress, so I decided to give his some unsolicited advice
on what to look for.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Here's
the preview, Paul.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
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</v:shape><span style='mso-element:field-end'></span><![endif]--><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://japan.kantei.go.jp/97_abe/statement/201504/aas2015.html" target="_blank"><span style="background: #B8EAB8; color: #1155cc;">http://japan.kantei.go.jp/97_abe/statement/201504/aas2015.html</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Money quote:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 14.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 1.0cm; margin-right: 45.0pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">"Refraining from acts or threats of
aggression or the use of force against the territorial integrity or political
independence of any country."<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 14.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 1.0cm; margin-right: 45.0pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">"Settlement of all international disputes
by peaceful means...."<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 14.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 1.0cm; margin-right: 45.0pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">Those are some of the principles Bandung affirmed.
And Japan, with feelings of deep remorse over the past war, made a pledge to
remain a nation always adhering to those very principles throughout, no matter
what the circumstances.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 14.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 1.0cm; margin-right: 45.0pt; margin-top: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">In keeping with this same spirit, it was our
friends in Asia and Africa who propelled Japan after the Second World War to
make possible our reentry into the international community.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">To those friends of ours, let me take this
opportunity to extend our heartfelt gratitude.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">History made it inevitable, one could say, for
those countries gathered here three score years ago to show their strong unity,
since our forefathers then had a common wish, a wish for peace.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 14.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 14.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">Edit the first two and
last two paragraphs as appropriate for the U.S. audience, and you have Mr.
Abe's take on the history issues in his speech. He uses the word
"remorse," but he doesn't make it personal. He uses the word "aggression,"
but its connection to Japanese "remorse" is contextual, only implied.
Did it work? The meeting with President Xi Jinping went off without a hitch,
and that's all that mattered. As for President Park, Mr. Abe is content to wait
her out. It would be nice to have South Korea on our side, but it's not
essential to Japan's well-being. They need us much more than we need them. Be
polite, but firm. I think this is the outline of what Mr. Abe and his
associates are thinking, and I think that they are right.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 14.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 14.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">As for the substance of
the speech, the new bilateral guideline and TPP will be the highlights on the
bilateral relationship going forward.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 14.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; line-height: 14.5pt; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 12pt;">And speaking of TPP,
it's so nice to see bipartisanship break out after years of increasing
acrimony. I did read your comments, and I agree. But I think that she'll come
out in clear support with the caveat that she will make sure to enforce both
the letter and the spirit of the eventual environmental and labor provisions. I
don't think that she has a choice. Neither "non-committal" nor
"against" works for her. <i>(See <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/17/us-usa-election-clinton-idUSKBN0N82JC20150417">Paul’s
take here</a> on Hillary Clinton’s dilemma on what Paul and Eurasia Group both
consider a close call in Congress.)</i><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-32924829386608912262015-04-14T12:36:00.001+09:002015-04-14T12:36:38.312+09:00My Take on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Actually,
they are two of my comments on the draft of a weekly newsletter. They went
largely unheeded, alas, but good friend Tag Murphy sent me the link to a <a href="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/04/michael-pettis-will-chinas-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-eventually-matter.html">vastly
more exhaustive (and professional) analysis</a>, which appears to be broadly in
the same vein, so I am emboldened to post them here.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“I
too think that it's a better than even bet that Japan will announce its
participation in the AIIB by June but with a decent interval after Abe's DC
visit. I also think that it's unfair to blame the Obama administration for the
landslide participation of its European and Asia-Pacific allies Japan and South
Korea were the only countries that the US had meaningful leverage over, and
when the UK knocked out the rest of the dominoes, even that mostly dissipated.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“That
said, don't overestimate the significance of the AIIB challenge. The ADB will
still be around; likewise the WB--and more importantly the IMF and BIS, as well
as SWIFT, VISA, Mastercard and other non-governmental institutions that have
grown up around the international financial and monetary systems. What does it
mean in this context for the Renminbi to challenge the dollar? It means the
existence of a large and highly liquid market in Renminbi-denominated financial
assets (including banking deposits). In other words, the Renminbi would become
just another reserve currency, like the yen and Euro, but much bigger than the
former and more trustworthy than the latter. And that's by no means a bad
thing. Of course if the Renminbi (and Chinese financial institutions) become
big enough, China could conceivably use that leverage as a weapon in the same
way that the US is using it. It's something to keep at the back of your head,
but it'll remain highly hypothetical, at least during my lifetime.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“Something
similar can be said for RCEP, which excludes the US. As long as it does not
replace WTO and TPP come through, it's not something to worry about.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Also...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“I
also think that it will be useful to remind your readers that the United States
essentially was the only game in town from an economic perspective, although
the USSR did provide an alternative model. China is not nearly as dominant,
never will be. For that matter, the US is no longer so either.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-87308466364710372342015-03-13T01:28:00.001+09:002015-03-13T01:28:57.482+09:00Four Mini-Essays on Japanese Politics<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
following is the memo that I typed out on Wednesday for a Thursday
talk-and-Q&A lunch for a group of people from the embassies in Tokyo. I did
wind up doing a lot of talking regardless, and we never got to item 4. I am
conceited enough to think top believe the courteous post-session comments to
the effect that I came across as both entertaining (YES!) as well as
thought-provoking.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the interests of brevity and in
view of the fact that I am a poor impromptu public speaker but a reasonably
competent conversationalist, I have whacked out the following mini-essays based
on the talking points that Ms. Yuka Tatsuno at the British Embassy for you to
read beforehand to a) decide whether or not I am actually worth listening to
and b) save the session for further elaboration (if someone of you arrive
without prior reading, it will have the added benefit for me of having my lunch
while it is still warm), on those or any other matters that are of interest to
you.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">March 11, 2015 Jun Okumura <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Command Performance<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">1.
The Legal Framework for National Security (The post-budget authorization
legislative process; Japan’s post-legislation role)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Only
legislation that secures the consent of Komeito will be submitted. This means
that a) enactment is only a matter of time and b) little will change in Japan’s
national security policy as the result. But turn your eyes away from the
legislative process, and you will see more substantial changes going on that
have more geopolitical significance.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 7.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Much of the discussions
revolving around a) the legislative and administrative consequences of efforts
to expand the scope of Japan’s military efforts through, among other things, the
reinterpretation of the Japanese constitution to allow collective self-defense
and b) the longer-term efforts to amend the constitution to provide a sounder footing
for the Japanese military and its activities are politically important but are
of very limited practical significance. Vastly more significant from the
national security and geopolitical perspectives are the Abe administration’s
efforts to a) enhance Japan’s security relationships with countries sharing “</span><a href="http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/area/eu/kodo_k_e.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">common
values including a belief in peace, freedom, democracy and the rule of law,
respect for human rights and the promotion of sustainable development</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">”
through regular two-plus-two (foreign and defense ministers) arrangements and
b) embed Japan more deeply into the military-industrial complex based in those
countries. Let me explain.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">First, let’s take a look
at the practical consequences of the ongoing legislative and administrative
initiative. Even before the parameters of the eventual compromise between Prime
Minister Abe and the LDP and Komeito emerge, any Japanese involvement in the
fight against Islam State (ISIL) beyond the humanitarian assistance currently
being provided has been ruled out by Mr. Abe. In fact, the only area of agreement
on the “international contribution” front is logistics in areas where fighting
has ceased. The rules for engagement by force is being somewhat eased, but the
JSDF will almost remain unable to come to the rescue of their non-Japanese
cohorts under fire. Beyond the fact that new individualized legislation will
not be required in case situations like the After-war in Iraq and the pirates
of Somalia present themselves, the only meaningful change on the ground appears
to be that the JSDF will no longer have to limit logistic support to whatever
they have till now have had to provide under the guise of transporting
non-military personnel and materiel.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There is somewhat more on
collective self-defense, with expansion beyond the Japan-U.S. Mutual Security
Treaty to include other allies. Still, any military assistance in the course of
self-defense will continue to be limited to the service of defending Japan. So
sorry, Australia, but if “The Coalition Nations” come a-calling, </span><a href="https://www.google.co.jp/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.imdb.com%2Ftitle%2Ftt1456941%2F&ei=vuL_VJzAM4eH8QXK5YHgCg&usg=AFQjCNEEsQ87O4afA0TS_oqchdWQIZripA&sig2=fF0UgfeX6nB-yLc_kankXw&bvm=bv.87611401,d.dGc"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">you
will be on your own</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> as far as Japan is concerned. The
exchange for extraterritorial acts of self-defense per se of the “situations in
areas surrounding Japan” for phrasing without geographical constraints when “dealing
with imminent unlawful situations where the people’s right to life, liberty and
the pursuit of happiness is fundamentally overturned due to an armed attack by
a foreign country,” combined with an expansion of interdiction authority, will
bring real change. But here again, actual war zones beyond the “areas
surrounding Japan”—read the Hormuz Straits—are likely to be assiduously
avoided. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All this is surely much
less than half of the full loaf that Prime Minister Abe or the majority of LDP
legislators want. The reason for this remarkable restraint is twofold: a)
Komeito, the electorally indispensable junior coalition partner, will not stand
for more; and b) the Japanese public taken collectively is very reluctant to
support overseas military ventures even within a UN collective context. These
two constraints are insurmountable in the foreseeable future. The LDP could
conceivably pass more ambitious legislation with the cooperation of Toru
Hashimoto’s Japan Innovation Party. But it will not be able to do so without
rupturing the coalition with Komeito and encouraging the emergence of a viable
and more pacifist-minded opposition. If this were all that there was, the
geopolitical impact would be largely cosmetic, a rhetorical tool for Mr. Abe’s
opponents at home and abroad to bludgeon him with. But Japanese accumulation of
bilateral 2-plus-2s and engagement in the world of the international industrial
and military complex tell a different story.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Japan has been adding 2-plus-2s, regular
bilateral meetings of cabinet members holding the foreign and defense
portfolios to coordinate security policy, to the original arrangement with the
United States. The process began with Australia (2007), and has added India
(2010), Russia (2013), before the events that led to President Putin’s invasion
of Ukraine), France (2014), and the U.K. (2015). (Indonesia seemed to be in the
works, but the current president’s plans are unknown to me.) I run the risk of
seriously overstating the importance of these alliances. After all, Russia
never was an ally of Japan in the balmiest of times, never will be in the
foreseeable future, and India like is unlikely to throw in its lot
unconditionally with Japan. That said, other than Japan and China, these two
countries are the ones that matter most in Asia-ex Middle East, and both see
China as a source of direct long-term geopolitical risk. The United States
aside, Australia, France and the U.K. have historically been the countries that
are most likely to engage in extraterritorial military interventions in areas
that are of undeniable interest to Japan in terms of national security. Given
the significant backup support Japan has been providing, at least in financial
terms, to joint military undertakings in geographical locations of varying
national interest, the modest uptick in the involvement of the JSDF in those
undertakings, and, as I will now hold forth on, the engagement in the world of
the international industrial and military complex mean that these 2-plus-2s
will gain increasing significance over the long run.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In 2013, the Abe
administration replaced the long-standing “the Three Principles on Arms Exports
and Their Related Policy Guidelines,” a virtual ban on arms exports that had
been relaxed for specific items, almost exclusively for the United States, over
the years with a new set of principles on overseas transfer of defense
equipment and technology entitled “</span><a href="http://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press22e_000010.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">the
Three Principles of Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">.”
This change has been accompanied by active efforts to compete for Australia’s
submarine replacements and new maritime rescue seaplanes. Future Japanese work
on the F-35 stealth fighter has a real chance of being reflected in its
development for sales in the global market. More modest joint efforts are
reportedly afoot with the U.K. and France. Much of such efforts require
involvement in international weapons consortiums, bringing Japan more fully
into the sphere of the international industry-military complex. This is a turn
of events that take Japan beyond rhetoric and rare events and more deeply into
the world of security in the narrow sense, a world where actions have real,
day-by-day consequences. This in turn is likely to give more substance to the
2-plus-2s, as, for example, sticky issues such as theater of use and sales to
third parties will have to be worked out. It is notable that China and, to a
lesser extent, Russia are largely quarantined here beyond the purchase of
turn-key systems. How good is this technology? Good enough to build some of the
most high-spec conventional-fuel submarines in the world, good enough to
develop its own version of a stealth fighter aircraft, and backed by a
cutting-edge industrial and technological base for potential. Japan is a huge
prize for the international weapons consortiums, from which China and Russia
are almost completely excluded beyond what they can buy or, um, borrow.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Finally, the bilateral
security ties and the weapons consortiums are mutually reinforcing. The
multiyear commitments inherent to the relationships ensure that they will
endure all but the most extreme of regime changes on either side. Growth and
permanence: What more can Mr. Abe wish for? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Have I overemphasized the
importance of the latter, non-legislative efforts in order to make my point?
That is for you to decide. But there is no denying that they must be of
significant concern to countries whose geopolitical interests come into
conflict with Japan and, more broadly, the countries with which Mr. Abe is
reinforcing mutual ties.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">2.
The Japan-China-South Korea Relationship(s) (Japan-South Korea dialogue; the
substance of Mr. Abe’s 70<sup>th</sup> anniversary statement)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There
will be no bilateral summitry with South Korea until the 70<sup>th</sup>
anniversary speech is over and done with. Who knows what he’ll say, though I am
confident that Mr. Abe’s minders will stage manage a formula for his statement
that will be acceptable by a South Korea president. But can Mrs. Park be that
president? (My thoughts have changed somewhat since I wrote that last sentence
weeks ago.)<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Of the three national
leaders, President Park Geun-hye has the weakest hand. Note also that South
Korea is the smallest country of the three, and is under the most serious
security of all in the form of North Korea, 80 kilometers from national capital
Seoul. More immediately, the South Korean economy is in poor shape, her
political team has been beset with a series of scandals, and her support is
down to the conservative core, hovering around the low 40% to mid-30% in
national polls. Yet given the harshness of national opinion toward Japan and
the Abe administration on history issues, Mrs. Park has minimal wiggle room for
compromise to begin with.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">President Xi Jinping has by
far the best job security of all three. He is halfway through presumably the
first of two five year terms, putting his political enemies on the run or
eliminating them altogether through reassignments and corruption charges, and
is plowing ahead with far-reaching economic reforms while continuing the
decades-long expansion of China’s military power and projection. (The long-term
outlook for Mr. Xi and China come across as being far more uncertain than is
generally appreciated. We can go into this in more detail if you so desire.) He
appears to be a popular figure, at least with the masses, and also has much better
control over the conventional and social media, which he could use to minimize
the political fallout from any compromise with Mr. Abe on history issues in the
interests of rapprochement. That said, Japan and China have competing
geopolitical interests. China is the potential regional hegemon; Japan is big
enough to offer meaningful resistance with help from the global and New World
hegemon United States. Moreover, public sentiment in China toward Japan on
history issues is genuine, if stoked and exaggerated by CCP propaganda and
education. (The Chinese people suffered most, followed by the Japanese, with
residents of the Korean Peninsula (with no U.S. carpet bombing and no Imperial
Army draft) coming in a distant third.) China is taking a loss on tourism due
to the animosities; likewise some of the shrinkage in Japanese investment is
attributed to the negativities. But history issues are but one of the problems
in the way of more Japanese involvement in the Chinese economy If the others
are taken care of—a big if—the economic consequences of history issues will seem trivial, at least
from the Chinese side. Xi has the least incentive to back off.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mr. Abe actually has the
easiest hand of all. All he needs to do is to refer explicitly and positively
to the Murayama and Kono Statements, as all his predecessors have done as
required and repeat a few key phrases there, then move on. But on a subjective
level, that is very difficult for him to do, because he does not seem to
believe in the spirit, much less the words, of the statements. Perfunctory
acknowledgement, accompanied by gaffes when pushed, seems to be the best that
he can offer. And that only because he is intelligent enough to be aware that
rejection of the statements are inimical to Japanese national interests as
defined by political realism. He is most capable of compromise, yet personally,
surely least inclined. As the impact on the economic relationships,
particularly with China, has stabilized, with the history issues increasingly
quarantined, he might as well settle in for the long run and try to wait it
out.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Luckily
for the rest of us, who would prefer an easing of tension, Washington largely
feels the same way, and has been willing to weigh in, if gingerly, to protect
its own national interests. When Washington speaks, whether from the White
House and its agents or from Capitol Hill, Tokyo listens. And it so happens
that Mr. Abe is looking to visit Washington in May, during the Golden Week Diet
break. That means that he will deliver his 70th anniversary speech there, most
preferably in Congress, as his grandfather Nobusuke Kishi and political mentor
Junichiro Koizumi did. That, more than anything else, will dictate what he will
say.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If
all goes well, Mr. Abe will deliver a speech that will pass muster with
Congress—where a single member could put a hold on a House/Senate
appearance—which in turn will be deemed acceptable in China and perforce in
South Korea. And a subsequent trilateral—and eventually bilateral with Mrs.
Park—will come off. And the investment climate will see a modest improvement;
the geopolitical relationships somewhat less, particularly with regard to
Japan-China. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">3.
The Unified Local Elections (The impact on the national political process)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There
will be little impact on the national political process since the high-profile
elections by and large feature strong incumbents and/or candidates who enjoy
bipartisan support. But is that all that matters in the Unified Local
Elections? And isn’t there a May vote that can have a greater impact on
national politics?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Only 10 out of the 47
prefectural governor’s offices are scheduled for the upcoming Unified Local
Elections in April. (The others dropped out one by one over the years as death
and resignations (bribery charges being an uncomfortably common cause) took
their toll. In only two of those—Hokkaido and Oita—is the DPJ supporting
candidates to oppose the LDP-supported incumbents. It is improbable that the
Hokkaido challenger. The Oita challenger does have a fighting chance, since he
is the incumbent mayor of Oita City, the capital of the prefecture and by far
its largest city. Remember that one big reason for the LDP loss in the recent
Saga gubernatorial was the fact that its candidate had been a small-town, if
successful, mayor in a prefecture where local connections still matter very
much.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But that’s it. The
best-case scenario for the DPJ is one out of 10. The DPJ is reportedly also having
difficulty fielding large numbers of candidates for the prefectural and
municipal assemblies, much as it had to refrain from contesting many House of
Representative seats in the December election even where the Japan Innovation
Party (JIP), its temporary ally of convenience was not putting up its own. And
speaking of the JIP, its prospects do not look much better either, as party
head and Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto’s act is wearing thin on the national
stage. The recent cabinet and subcabinet member scandals have taken more luster
off the Abe administration, but the situation is such that the DPJ and JIP
could take a modest loss in the assemblies, bundle it with a victory in the
Oita gubernatorial and credibly claim more than a moral victory. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But none of the plausible
outcomes will sway national policymaking in a significant way. Much is made of
the connection between the power of the agricultural voting machine and its
effect on agricultural reform and TPP. But the Abe administration never did
come to grips with the core issues of agricultural reform—essentially a legal
framework that encourages land hoarding and discourages corporate farming; I will
be happy to hold forth in more detail—settled for cosmetic devolution to
prefectural cooperative associations from the national federation <i>Zenchu</i> and tinkering with the membership
of the prefectural agricultural commissions, where the local decision-making
powers are concentrated. As for TPP, the
deal is largely in place. All that is needed are TPA and the approach of the
U.S. election season to remind the parties to cut the final deals against a looming
deadline. U.S. pushing back the TPA timeline makes it that much easier for the
LDP to skirt the issue during the April elections in Japan.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Let’s talk about a more
interesting vote, a vote that will have a material impact on the realignment
prospects of the opposition. Here, I am referring to the May 17 Osaka City
referendum on the Metropolitan Osaka initiative that Mayor Hashimoto is
pushing. The initiative will essentially divide up the city of Osaka into
special wards, much like in Metropolitan Tokyo, and spilt the current municipal
powers between the prefecture and the newly-created special wards. Hashimoto’s
star will be further diminished if the initiative is voted down. That in turn
will strengthen the hands of the more opposition-minded Diet members, who are
more inclined to seek accommodation with the DPJ. (Hashimoto is more kindly
disposed toward the national ruling coalition for tactical, strategic and
ideological reasons.) The effect will not become evident immediately, but it
will offer a glimmer of hope to the DPJ and most other forces seeking to
construct a viable alternative to the LDP-Komeito coalition. And my
understanding is that the initiative does not have the support of a majority of
Osaka residents. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">4.
Quo Vadis, O Abe? (How much longer will
Mr. Abe ride high in the polls? The September LDP President election? Who will
be the next prime minister?)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">a) The Abe administration will rumble
along around 50% in the polls unless something happens that attaches the
hard-to-eradicate stench of incompetence and/or unlikability on it. But can
anyone foresee discontinuities on a more than random basis?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">b) Maybe someone like Taro Kono will
stand, just to avoid reelection by acclamation. But will it matter?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">c) If the LDP rules of the game are
followed in 2018 and the political landscape has not been swept by some tidal
wave, it will be Shigeru Ishiba’s to lose. But will Mr. Abe have a say in this?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">a)<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Abe administration has seen some recent erosion of public support due to
ongoing series of political financing scandals that have already claimed three
cabinet members, two right before the December election, another more recently,
as casualties, and some real-world consequences in the form of delays in the
legislative schedule. (It may seem silly, but in the highly ritualized world of
Japanese parliamentarian process, tie lost is hard to regain, even if it may
still seem like an administration’s heaven to the Obama administration.) If
this continues, it will become a little harder to move forward with Mr. Abe’s
legislative agenda. But only a little. Beyond the time lost, the LDP will not
waver (to the extent that it does not already put a brake on his most ambitious
initiatives), and Komeito will continue to accept what it can swallow, and only
what it can swallow.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
numbers will begin to edge up slowly once the scandals have played out
sufficiently for the media to let go, and the economy finally gives the
appearance of returning to a firm upward trajectory on all fronts, not just for
the major corporates and their stakeholders. But always make room for
discontinuities. For example, if the prospective May speech is well-received in
the United States—fingers crossed—look for a meaningful bump on the scale of
the political scandals, but on the upside.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 25.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">b)<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Either
way, barring some political catastrophe that robs Mr. Abe of legitimacy, it is
difficult to foresee a serious candidate challenging him in the September LDO
leadership election. The main possibilities—Shigeru Ishiba, Fumio Kishida, and,
though a stretch, Sadakazu Tanigaki are coopted with attractive sinecures and
will see no upside to staging a challenge. (Now the incumbent, do not think
that Mr. Abe will placate opponents with attractive consolation prizes, as he
did the last time around.) No, Yoshimasa Hayashi is not a serious candidate, since
he has failed to secure a Lower House seat, and he now has the MAFF portfolio
back again. I can see someone like Taro Kono offering token resistance, but
only because there will be no consequences for him.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 25.1pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">c)<span style="font-family: 'Times New Roman'; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
four heads of the LDP that followed after Junichiro Koizumi stepped down
essentially went down the roster of candidates considered viable for the job in
the order of their political strength. All but the last became prime minister
except for the last, Mr. Tanigaki, who was too weak to resist once the DPJ
blood in the water excited other, more powerful candidates including Mr. Abe,
who wound up winning. Mr. Ishiba by contrast has much greater political capital
than Mr. Tanigaki and thus unlikely to be denied his place in the chronological
order of political things.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Is
there no way that Mr. Ishiba can be denied? For that, we must look to Mr. Abe’s
own ascent to the prime minister’s office in 2006. His only previous cabinet
appointment was less than a year as Chief Cabinet Secretary right up to his
election as prime minister. Before that, he had spent a year as
secretary-general of the LDP but resigned when the LDP suffered a setback in
the 2004 House of Councilors election. There was no way that he could have
become prime minister at the time without the unconditional support of Prime
Minister Koizumi, who was going out on a high note and more over was the
virtual head of the most powerful faction in the LDP. That faction, not
coincidentally, was Mr. Abe’s faction, and it is even more powerful now. Could
Mr. Abe be in a position to engineer such a transition himself? Will he be
inclined to do so? Hints, one way or the other, will be available after the
September LDP leadership election, when he should be tweaking his cabinet and
party appointments. Stay tuned.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-5610386897098730012015-03-06T23:31:00.001+09:002015-03-06T23:31:13.015+09:00Interesting but Ultimately Useless Piece of Academic Work regarding U.S. Public Opinion on Negotiations with Iran on Its Nuclear Program<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">“But
the fact that Americans are responsive to a wide array of considerations [regarding
a final deal with Iran on its nuclear program] suggests that they will
scrutinize the final terms of the deal and be responsive to even subtle
considerations.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">From
the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/03/03/what-americans-really-think-about-an-iran-deal/">Monkey
Cage</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Untrue.
The “the fact that Americans who are [willing to sit still long enough to
follow arguments about are responsive to a wide array of considerations regarding
a final deal with Iran on its nuclear program] suggests that the rest of the
300 million, give or take a few, will not] scrutinize the final terms of the
deal and [will certainly be ignorant of any] subtle considerations.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-73426285317373895552015-02-17T20:54:00.001+09:002015-02-17T20:54:48.608+09:00Mainichi Scoop on ISIL Embezzler? Think Again<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Today
(Feb. 17), the <i>Mainichi</i> website
uploaded a </span><a href="http://mainichi.jp/select/news/20150217k0000e030135000c.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">remarkable
report from its Cairo correspondent</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">, citing a Syrian
antigovernment activist as the main source. Specifically, an Egyptian official
of ISIL charged with collecting donations in Deir Ez Zour province in East
Syria reportedly disappeared. The report also says that there is information (</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "MS 明朝",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">情報もある</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">) that the
Egyptian absconded to Turkey taking approximately 1 billion Syrian pounds in
donations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I
always get suspicious when a Japanese newspaper comes across unsourced
“information.” (Likewise, when something “becomes known (</span><span lang="JA" style="font-family: "MS 明朝",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "MS 明朝"; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">明らかになった</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">),”
it usually means, “We’ve been scooped!” But I digress.) In fact, the
“information” given here looks suspiciously like it was summarized from </span><a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/isis-egyptian-treasurer-steals-zakat-funds-flees-turkey-1486398"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">this
English-language report</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> dated February 3, which in turn
gives as its source an Arabic report (Feb. 2) that cites yet another news site.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mainichi’s</span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%;">
story is more than two weeks old. And it’s not giving credit to a key source.
And its “Syrian antigovernment activist” (in Cairo?) adds nothing of value to
the English-language report.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Here you are.</div>Jun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com0