tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post306880633990043719..comments2023-10-20T18:03:01.821+09:00Comments on GlobalTalk 21: Some Ozawa Issues Regarding National SecurityJun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-44948703380530201062009-03-04T17:52:00.000+09:002009-03-04T17:52:00.000+09:00You could not state the implications of his statem...You could not state the implications of his statements any better. However, significant portions of the Japanese public are not ready to face up to one or more of your three points. In any case, he appears to be taking sides on the first two points and is not clear on the third, so it’s not as if he is actually saying those things.<BR/><BR/>Another way of saying this is that you’re smarter than Ozawa.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-3673866421435720242009-03-03T12:46:00.000+09:002009-03-03T12:46:00.000+09:00I think I need to "modulate" or "clarify" my state...I think I need to "modulate" or "clarify" my statement.<BR/><BR/>What I hear Ozawa saying is, more or less: <BR/><BR/>1) if you want a lesser role for US in Japanese defense, it will have to come with a corresponding increase in the Japanese role; <BR/><BR/>2) if you care about results rather than planting flags, there's more than one way to support foreign engagements. Using your resources to free other nations' resources for such use is as effective as allocating your resources directly; <BR/><BR/>3) Japan is long overdue to talk openly about all of this before making any decisions, without declaring any subjects out of bounds.<BR/><BR/>I may misread all of this horribly (quite probable, true), but to the extent that my statements above reflect what he's been saying I don't really see any problem with them. None are factually incorrect as far as I can understand.Jan Morenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06834641501438709866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-45165121571622399462009-03-02T17:09:00.000+09:002009-03-02T17:09:00.000+09:00Bryce: In Japanese opinion polls, a majority or pl...Bryce: In Japanese opinion polls, a majority or plurality has usually opposed assuming collective defense obligations. However, the numbers are fluid and can shift substantially according to how a) the questions are formulated; and b) the Japanese public perceives threats to its own security. My tentative conclusion is that the views of a substantial portion of the Japanese public on collective defense are vague and inchoate and will shift considerably according to the perception of the threats, actual and potential, from North Korea and China, both per se and in the context of the Japan-U.S. bilateral alliance. Thus, it was not Ozawa’s views on collective defense as an abstract concept but its apparent implications that had people alarmed across a wide political spectrum.<BR/><BR/>Something similar can be said of Ozawa’s activist position on the overseas projection of the Japanese military under the UN flag. I’ll try to elaborate on this and the preceding paragraph in a post of their own that will address the implications for the relationship between an Ozawa administration and the Obama White House. But this is all that I have time for now.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-14356473033450102962009-03-02T08:36:00.000+09:002009-03-02T08:36:00.000+09:00"nobody but his closest associates appears to be w..."nobody but his closest associates appears to be willing to defend him."<BR/><BR/>Oddly though, his position is more or less in line with public opinion = The SDF should only be used for defense or overseas deployment, not collective defence or "forwarding the national interests". With the exception of perhaps increasing the size of the LDP (a corollary of expanding its international role) this is what the polls say that "the people" want. And this position is actually will probably be quite complementary to Obama's internationalist approach.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-43643808725899723352009-03-01T20:09:00.000+09:002009-03-01T20:09:00.000+09:00I agree that his statements are 100% constitutiona...I agree that his statements are 100% constitutional. As for “cautious and sensible” and being “right”, Ozawa will be happy hear you say that, since nobody but his closest associates appears to be willing to defend him. In the meantime, claims are no substitute for facts.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-51450311036994195332009-03-01T18:55:00.000+09:002009-03-01T18:55:00.000+09:00"Nevertheless, staking out a position that is unli..."Nevertheless, staking out a position that is unlikely to gain much traction with the Japanese public—expanding the JSDF—while annoying the Obama administration—on top of likely conflict over U.S. troop realignment—is not a good way to prepare for a takeover. "<BR/><BR/>There is the little detail that his position is sensible and cautious, in line with the Japanese constitution, and probably good for both US and Japanese interests over time. Of course, nobody said that being right will make you popular...Jan Morenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06834641501438709866noreply@blogger.com