tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post416258026919479778..comments2023-10-20T18:03:01.821+09:00Comments on GlobalTalk 21: Gazing into the Crystal Ball as Fukuda Numbers Settle at Late-Abe LevelsJun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-36044660864452886752008-06-04T16:46:00.000+09:002008-06-04T16:46:00.000+09:00Janne:For the time being, the Komeito can rely on ...Janne:<BR/><BR/>For the time being, the Komeito can rely on the votes from the <I>Sokagakkai</I>, of which it is the political wing, though the 6.0% in the 07.07.19 poll was probably a statistically anomaly.<BR/><BR/>The Komeito tried to expand the franchise in the eighties and early nineties but appears to have settled into a niche role as the Article 9 wing of the ruling coalition. Its pacifist stance has genuine roots in the <I>Sokagakkai’s</I> WW II experience, when many non-establishment religions offered what little grassroots resistance there was to Japan’s war efforts. In today’s <I>Sokagakkai</I>, the tradition appears to serve for practical purposes as not much more than the institutional motivation for Daisaku Ikeda, its leader-for-life, to gather honorary degrees from learning institutions in LDCs and ex-COMECON states and maintain futile hopes of winning the Nobel Peace Prize. Thus, it remains to be seen what will become of the Komeito, once the octogenarian leader of <I>Sokagakkai</I> makes an exit from center stage.<BR/><BR/>Am I being too cynical?<BR/><BR/>As for a coalition partner, if neither LDP-Komeito or the DPJ wind up with an absolute majority, the PNP will sell itself to the highest bidder. The SDP will be available to the DPJ, at a cost.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-47568669977627545072008-06-04T15:01:00.000+09:002008-06-04T15:01:00.000+09:00For New Komeito all this may be completely academi...For New Komeito all this may be completely academic. I suspect that the party is largely a generational phenomenon (like its mother organization), and destined for a slow decline into extinction along with its aging supporters. <BR/><BR/>That would mean that a serious dip in popularity (3.8% instead of 6%) is not something that the party can easily reverse; the dip accelerates the existing downwards momentum; a climb would need to work against it. It's especially significant, I think, as the party seems all but invisible; the decline has happened due to absolutely nothing that the party itself has done; losing support is what the party is doing by default now. The question is where the LDP is going to look for a coalition partner if New Komeito is no longer a factor.Jan Morenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06834641501438709866noreply@blogger.com