tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post5172790955296446421..comments2023-10-20T18:03:01.821+09:00Comments on GlobalTalk 21: Japan Gets Message from Chinese Naval CelebrationJun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-90474189807763909412009-04-29T12:45:00.000+09:002009-04-29T12:45:00.000+09:00Hmm, an anonymous Anonymous? I haven't seen that o...Hmm, an anonymous Anonymous? I haven't seen that one before.<br /><br /> Sorry, I don't tweet. It's not that I have anything against it in principle. To the contrary, it looks like so much fun I won't be able to do what little I do that is useful if I start tweeting. Thanks for asking though.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-64105891177001009312009-04-29T12:22:00.000+09:002009-04-29T12:22:00.000+09:00can i follow you on twitter - http://twitter.com/m...can i follow you on twitter - http://twitter.com/makepolicyAnonymoushttp://www.makepolicy.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-51155111027209129872009-04-28T13:35:00.000+09:002009-04-28T13:35:00.000+09:00Plutarch: Thank you for the compliment. You’re one...Plutarch: Thank you for the compliment. You’re one of those people who keep my blog alive. (I also enjoy slamming ill-prepared comments, but that’s another story.)<br /><br />Actually, I’m a tweener with regard to China’s future as a military power. Our most important strategic interests—market access and energy security—are consonant. The disputed waters are fairly trivial in this respect. The potential cause of the fattest of fat tails is Taiwan, but that’s first and foremost a U.S.-China issue. And speaking of the United States, we do have an excellent ally there. It’s not just the nuclear umbrella. U.S. military technology is superior to Russia’s, if more expensive. And the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a far cry from Japan’s security arrangement with the United States, among other things because China and Russia have very different national interests in the mid- to long-term. Then there are the long-term (20-, 30-year) social and economic prospects, which to me look at least as good for Japan as it does for China.<br /><br />All this doesn’t mean that China will never cause serious problems for Japan. And you know what Yogi Berra said about predicting the future.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-10866169432169503202009-04-28T12:54:00.000+09:002009-04-28T12:54:00.000+09:00Great post - I agree with you - think it is more o...Great post - I agree with you - think it is more of the first point and the Chinese authorities sticking to the Japanese - sounds like stayed tuned re. frequency of incidents in disputed waters - dragon is emerging as dominant powerplutarchhttp://www.makepolicy.comnoreply@blogger.com