tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post7318347100792929659..comments2023-10-20T18:03:01.821+09:00Comments on GlobalTalk 21: Election 2014: When 270 ≑ 238 et al from The ArithmeticianJun Okumurahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-38668331367540693402014-12-06T03:26:59.429+09:002014-12-06T03:26:59.429+09:00You make very good points. I got to look at the s...You make very good points. I got to look at the seats one by one and look at who is running. It seems KP is not being challenged by JIP in several seats and even in the ones where they are it does not look like they would be much of a challenge. I agree that Ota has it in the bag in Tokyo as well but he won in 2012 as well. I think one place KP is vulnerable is in Hokkaido 10th. The DPJ and NPD alliance should be enough to win back that seat. I agree that KP will gain that back on the PR side it not more.jaichindhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12353840403106041580noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-60130312475127429152014-12-04T15:39:50.959+09:002014-12-04T15:39:50.959+09:00And Sokagakkai rocks in the Kansai region.And <i>Sokagakkai</i> rocks in the Kansai region.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-16676332606500422122014-12-04T15:37:41.141+09:002014-12-04T15:37:41.141+09:00I dunno about that. The JRP was nothing more than ...I dunno about that. The JRP was nothing more than a charismatic leader attracting independent voters (and, later, careerist politicians). How many of them can a much diminished Hashimoto deliver to DPJ candidates? Plus, Komeito will pick up a seat, minimum, in Tokyo, where Ohta will beat Ozawa acolyte Ai Aoki in a single-seat district race.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32776756.post-74064695523650974612014-12-03T23:34:42.774+09:002014-12-03T23:34:42.774+09:00Not sure KP can count on 31 seats this time. I th...Not sure KP can count on 31 seats this time. I think in a low turnout election the KP could do better in the PR vote section. On the other hand 4 out of the FPTP seats KP won was in Osaka and 2 were in Hyōgo for 2012. In all 6 cases it had the support JRP. This time around JIP is going with DPJ (more or less.) If JIP and DPJ joins forces in these 6 seats not sure if KP can manage to hold on to them.jaichindhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12353840403106041580noreply@blogger.com