Friday, July 09, 2010

DPJ Slipping, LDP Entrenching Itself on the Periphery

The most recent media surveys (6-8 July; polls and legwork) on the 11 July Upper House election put the DPJ around 50 and the LDP in the mid 40s. The DPJ continues to kick ass in the national proportional ballot, but the LDP is coming on strong in the prefectural districts. Specifically, it’s the one-seaters. Sankei’s 7 July district-by-district survey has the DPJ and LDP leading in 9 and 16 respectively, and the two neck-and-neck in 4. The LDP is becoming the party of the peripheral, of ura-Nihon—don’t use this word in polite company, it has been politically incorrect for some years—Shikoku, and Kyushu (it even leads in Okinawa).

If this trend will plays itself out on 11 July—there still are a lot of undecideds out there, though that factor has to be discounted by the prospects of their sitting it out—there will be a multitude of implications, short-term and long-, politics and policy, that require analysis. A lot of work to do.

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