Pentagon: Counter-terrorism Oil Not Being Used for Operation Iraqi Freedom

Remember this? The following Yomiuri report says that a Pentagon spokesman has stated that the Japanese fuel oil provided under the counter-terrorism act is not being used for Operation Iraqi Freedom and the offending web pages have been altered to avoid any misunderstanding.

Although Mr. Ishihara did not say anything that was obviously wrong, he said so much in his extensive explanations to justify the Iraqi connection that the DPJ should find plenty of material to draw on in criticizing the coalition government when the Diet convenes. The saving grace is that he is no longer Chief Cabinet Secretary.

Incidentally, I've reached the tentative conclusion that there are only two probable outcomes to the counter-terrorism act extension: a new comprehensive act that arrives in time to allow the JSDMF refueling ships to continue its operations uninterrupted; or a new law authorizing the Afghanistan operations that creates a maximum two-month gap that must be filled. I'll see if I can find the time to put it together later in the day.

海自の給油、イラク戦争転用を否定…米国防総省報道官

　【ワシントン＝五十嵐文】米国防総省のスチュワート・アップトン報道担当官は７日、読売新聞の取材に対し、テロ対策特別措置法に基づき海上自衛隊 がインド洋で実施している給油がイラク戦争にも転用されているのではないかとの指摘が出ていることについて、「日本の補給艦から給油を受けている参加国 は、ＯＥＦ（アフガニスタンでの『不朽の自由作戦』）を支援するために燃料を使うとの合意の下に活動している」と述べ、イラクへの転用説を否定した。

　中東海域などを管轄する米海軍中央司令部などのウエブサイトで、日本の給油活動が、アフガニスタンでのＯＥＦではなく、イラクでの「イラクの自由作戦」（ＯＩＦ）の一環として紹介されたことから、民主党などが臨時国会で追及する構えをみせている。

　アップトン報道担当官は、サイトは２００５年７月掲載で、「誤解を招くおそれがあるためすでに変更された」と説明した。

（2007年9月8日11時22分 読売新聞）

Correction Plus re Koizumi Children/New Wind

…as follow-up to this…

Atarashii Kaze (New Wind), the prep school Tsutomu Takebe founded for LDP newbie Lower House members after the 2005 election that brought in a slew of rookies some of whom were decidedly raw, has 26 full members consisting of: 1 Chairman, Mr. Takebe; 2 second-term members; 22 first-term members; and 2 people seeking office. It has added one first-term member and lost none.

Four of the first-term members belong to factions. Mr. Takebe himself belongs to the Yamazaki faction. All other full members are unaligned.

New Wind also has seven multi-term "special members," all of whom belong to factions.

One Reason Why Were Not Complaining about Chinese Products

I wondered why the Chinese products safety issue was not making much noise here. It turns out that it's the Chinese who are doing the complaining..

According to a Yomiuri report, on September 5, Japanese METI Minister Akira Amari and Chinese Commerce Minister Bo Xilai held a bilateral meeting in Sydney, Australia, on the eve of the annual APEC Summit, where Minister Bo requested that Japan ease regulations on pesticide residues and additives in agricultural products.

A spate of food scares in 2002 over mainly excessive amounts of pesticide residues on Chinese spinach led to tighter inspections, regulations and in 2003 legislation that went into effect last year. According to the article, Chinese authorities have been seeking a rollback of these measures to no avail. METI Minister Amari pushed back in light of the most recent developments, demanding stricter measures and better disclosure.

This does not explain the lack of media attention to made-in-China toys and textiles, but it does address the most immediate concern over our nearest supply of fresh foods. Read on if you want more background..

So now I know at least part of the story. My excuse for my total ignorance? I was out of the country at the time.

The Abe Adminstration: The Gift that Keeps on Giving

Some day - and the days are getting shorter - when the Abe Cabinet is only a fond memory, the Japan Newspaper Publishers & Editors Association (what, no reporters?) will erect on their premises a shrine with the Abe Administration as the deity; and to which, on a particularly slow news day, they will gather to pray: Oh great god of political scandal, please render unto us a minister, a vice minister, anyone, anything, to spare us from the shame of soiling the tops of our front pages with the latest five-year MAFF proposal for subsidizing Japanese turnip farmers with less than 2/5 hectares in non-rice paddy acreage. And their wish shall be granted.

The latest beneficence has been incarnated in the form of Dr. Ichiro Kamoshita, M.D., who, according to Shisaku, "can't count". The powers that be want to play it as a "mistake", which under my Rule 2 is not a take-one-step-back card. Prime Minster Abe agrees with me. With my Rule 2, that is. He does seem to reserving judgment until he sees the public response. Which is par for the course for him.

In Shinto, anything can be deified, a rock, a river, an umbrella, traitor to the Emperor, whatever. In fact, there's an old Japanese saying that used to be inscribed on one of a set of Edo Era playing cards: "Iwashi no atama mo shinjin kara", or: "Even something trivial as the head of a sardine can be an object of worship".

What, Us Worry? The Chinese Product Safety Scare

China has its own "Oh, no, not again" problem, as WaPo puts Mattel's third recall of Chinese-made products on the first page of the Sept. 5 Business section. In fact, rarely a day seems to go by without media reports on the Chinese product safety issue. The public outcry seems to be quite substantial, and Congress is likely to pass legislation – mainly symbolic in the short run – that in effect targets Chinese exports to the US by the end of the year. The trail does not stop at the borders either, as the WaPo front page on the same day has another article that displays a less accommodating attitude to its Southeast Asian trading on the same issue.

Compared to this, worries and protests seem to be muted in usually safety-conscious, risk-averse Japan. True, grown-in-China eel disappeared from one of the nearby supermarkets (but not the other) more than a month ago, and I myself have been avoiding Chinese food products (but not Chinese food) when I have the choice, like buying twice-as-expensive domestic garlic. Still, the processed foods shelves continue to display a wide array of Chinese products and products with Chinese ingredients. I'm both too old and too young to have a handle on toys, but the formaldehyde-clothing scare that swept the US, Australia and New Zealand seems to have passed little noticed here.

Like I said, the Japanese public tends to be safety-conscious and risk-averse to a fault. Is it just the lack of domestic victims to stoke the fire? Heavy direct investments into China with concomitant product control easing public concerns? Lack of special interests lobbying against Chinese products? I don't have the confidence to offer any kind of definitive answer. In fact, I may be overestimating the difference between Japan and China on this issue. But I do think that it's real, and I'd like how you feel, and what, if you agree with me, the reasons are.

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As I wrote here, there will be times when it is the Japanese media that runs with the China angle. But note that Yomiuri carried it as a US news item, without any reference to any Japanese implications.

Has the LDP Finished Cleaning House? Don't Ask the Party President

LDP leaders have convinced Yutaka Kobayashi to be a man and resign from his just-won, second-term Upper House seat and allow Akira Matsu, the runner-up and faithful member of the coalition-partner New Komeito to take over instead. He could stay on until the criminally indicted members of his campaign financing managers exhaust all appeals to any guilty verdicts, but at that point (any time beyond three months after the election to be exact), new elections would have to be called, one that could very likely be won by yet another DPJ candidate. Just as important, the LDP leadership clearly did not want to let this linger into the Diet session that convenes next week, where Mr. Kobayashi could have become yet another hugely distracting sideshow.

More surprising for the Japanese media was the sudden decision by Tokuichiro Tamazawa, a nine-term Lower House veteran, to leave the LDP (but not the Diet) as penitence because his political office had used the same receipts multiple times to account for expenditures (as befitting my Two Rules of LDP Diet Member Responsibility). No doubt the party leadership engineered this as well.

Party veteran Tamazawa's fate has irked some LDP members, who think this was harsh compared to Yukiko Sakamoto, who had lost her Vice Minister post in the Foreign Ministry to a similar sin but did not have to leave the party. Evidently, they are playing some kind of board game, where they've beach drawn a fake-receipts, take-one-step back card. Then of course there's Takehiko Endo, who took one giant step back from MAFF Minister. So that's my rule number three.

It is highly likely that the Prime Minister/party president had little to do with executing the latest demotion and exile; they have the look and feel of having been taken care of by the aconsiglieris. And normally, that would be that. However, in this case, they merely underscore the near-consensus in the JMSM that Prime Minister Abe had let Taro Aso, party Secretary-General, and Kaoru Yosano, the Chief Cabinet Secretary, take care of offing Mr. Endo and Ms. Sakamoto. In fact, one earlier news report had Mr. Abe allowing Mr. Aso to take care of all the Vice Minister selections.

Perhaps all the bad cards have been drawn, and no new crises in the HR department are imminent. But Mr. Abe's control is slipping badly, and the grown ups are taking over the ship. At least that is the perception, and that perception is created because everybody in the LDP is talking with impunity. And Mr. Aso and Mr. Yosano get the credit without talking the hits.

What seems like a long, long time ago, Prime Minister Koizumi brought the abductees and their family members home, but his Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary - later Secretary-General and Chief Cabinet Secretary - got all the credit. Perhaps it is only poetic justice that we are seeing the ascendancy of Secretary-General Aso and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yosano.

---

This has serious implications for the succession. The one safeguard that has kept Mr. Abe away from the scaffold has been the lack of a better alternative to lead them to victory in the next Lower House election (no later than September 2009). If Mr. Aso and Mr. Yosano continue their rise in public esteem - no sure thing, but the media will likely build them up, if only to set them up for a fall at the nearest convenient opportunity - the party faithful will surely take a good look at the prospects of premiericide. Mr. Abe's margin of error is looking very, very thin.

Where Did the Abductees Issue Become Part of the Response to the WMDs?

The Japanese Government issues an annual report titled: Report on the Government's Undertaking Concerning the Tackling of the Abductees Issue and Other Issues of Human Rights Violations by the North Korean Authorities
The report states its purpose at the very beginning:

"This document reports on the Government's undertaking concerning the tackling of the abductees issue and other issues of human rights violations by the North Korean authorities pursuant to the provision of The Act Concerning the Tackling of the Abductees Issue and Other Issues of Human Rights Violations by the North Korean Authorities (Act No. 96, 2006 Jun. 23)."

The first section of: Part 2. Abductees Chapter 1, Section 1. Domestic Undertakings; in its entirety:

(1) Measures Implemented against North Korea

In light of the launching of a ballistic missile by North Korea on July 5, 2006, the Government announced a set of measures such as forbidding the Mangyongbong 92, a North Korean cargo-passenger ship to entering [Japanese] ports, and tightening examinations on entries from North Korea. Moreover, when North Korea announced on October 9 the implementation of a nuclear test, [the Government] decided to forbid all North Korea-registered ships from entering [Japanese] ports, and decided the implementation of measures including a ban on the import of all categories of products from North Korea. These measures decided by comprehensively considering the various aspects of the situation including the fact that North Korea is not showing any sincere response to the abductees issue.

The text leaves the impression that the Government took the abductees issue into consideration on both occasions in determining the measures to be taken. In fact, there is no other reasonable interpretation. However, according to the 2006.07.05 press announcement by the Chief Cabinet Secretary (Shinzo Abe):

The launching of the ballistic missile or flying object [I like that; launching of a flying object] by North Korea directly concerns our country's security and is to be greatly alarmed about. Moreover, this case violates the Japan-DPRK Pyongyang Declaration and is incompatible with the Joint Declaration at the Six-Party talks, and is to be greatly regretted as well from the viewpoint of peace and safety of the international society and the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. From this point of view, it is necessary to give a steadfast, severe response to North Korea and we have decided to take the following substantive measures".

On July 5, there was no mention of the abductees issue. For that, we must turn to the next set of sanctions, three months later, the occasion of the nuclear test. On October 11, the Chief Cabinet Secretary (Yasuhisa Shiozaki) gave a danwa, or "talk". Here's the text in its entirety:

The National Security Council was held from 21 hours for approximately 20 minutes. As the result, I would like to allowed to announce our country's response for the time being pertaining to the nuclear test by North Korea.

Concerning the nuclear test by North Korea, we already clarified the position of our country by a declaration by the Chief Cabinet Secretary on the 9th.

Subsequently, the Government had considered our country's response; and, comprehensively taking into consideration the various elements of the situation including the fact that the Japan Meteorological Agency detected seismic waves different from the shapes of waves from a normal natural earthquake, that it is recognized that, in conjunction with the development of missiles by North Korea, that the threat to our country's security has doubled, North Korea has not shown any sincere response to the abductees issue, and that talks are being conducted in the UN Security Council with a view to making a severe response by the international society as a whole; and based on the opinions of the relevant Cabinet members and on orders from the Prime Minister, we have decided to take the following severe measures against North Korea and to expeditiously take the measures necessary for their implementation, and to decide them at the Cabinet session on the 13th.

In other words, the abductees issue was inserted on the second occasion as one of the factors that determined the Japanese response to the nuclear test, and the 2006 report (issued in 2007) retroactively stamped the July measures with the abductees issue seal. Since the only significant change between July and October other than the nuclear test is that Shinzo Abe had replaced Junichiro Koizumi as Prime Minister, the logical conclusion is that the addition was made at the order of Prime Minister Abe or someone who understood his desires. (The text itself bears the marks of careful calibration by the bureaucracy, but the thought is clearly of political origin.)

I had – mistakenly, it turns out – assumed that the sanctions had been in response to the WMD and missile delivery system issues, But it turns out that, because of the decision to insert the abductees issues on the occasion of the response to the nuclear tests, if and when (a very, very big "if and when") the Six-Party talks move forward and lifting/easing sanctions becomes a prerequisite, the Abe administration (another, growing, "if") will have to openly admit - it has no choice - that the abductees issue must be subsumed to the greater good of national security.

I Learn Something About Our War on Terror in the Iraqi Theater

No, not that theater. I am watching Sunday Project, my favorite TV program (after the wacky wushu serials on basic cable). Soichiro Tawara, the hard-hitting septuagenarian host, is questioning Nobuteru Ishihara, ex-Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary and new Chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council, on the prospects for the extension of the counter-terrorism act.

Even as Mr. Ishihara is explaining the distinction between Iraq and Afghanistan and how Japanese withdrawal would mean a disaster for the valiant Pakistani navy, Mr. Tawara, as always - this is the rudest man on the planet we are talking about - interrupts him and whips out a web page printout, two pages be exact, courtesy, he says, of Yukio Edano, DPJ hyper-policy wonk. They have been taken from the US Centcom Web site, and shows that most of the fuel oil that the JSDN provides for refueling as logistic support for counter-terrorism activities actually goes to operations in Iraq. Mr. Tawara's point is that we'd been told that there's one law on the books for Iraq and another for the war on terror in Afghanistan but it turns out we've been mostly helping out in Iraq either way.

Mr. Ishihara does not skip a beat – he claims he wasn't aware of this information, and he does look sincere – and goes on to explain how the Indian Ocean [i.e. presumed theater of operations] stretches to the African coast and the Persian Gulf so the whole area must be patrolled of course and we wouldn't want the terrorists moving in and out of Iraq do we? Mr. Tawara keeps pressing his point, Mr. Ishihara keeps repeating that there is no way to draw the line between naval operations around Afghanistan - a landlocked state, come to think of it – and Iraq, and I am thinking, gee, call me stupid, but I wasn't aware of that… The two kept repeating themselves until Mr. Tawara gruffly broke it off.

Come to think of it, it makes sense. The counter-terrorism act says nothing about the theater of operations, and the Iraq act only covers "activities to support humanitarian reconstruction and activities to support secure safety". The jurisdictional distinction is functional, not geographical. The problem is, we've had Afghanistan/Iraq, Afghanistan/Iraq drummed into our heads over and over again and how everyone but Ichiro Ozawa and his cousin is supposed to be on board for Afghanistan; so the notion that the refueled ships actual operate mainly in the Iraqi war theater? That comes as a sort of double-take for me, not to mention for the obstinate Mr. Tawara. How will it play with the rest of the public? The fact that Mr. Edano passed it on is a sure sign that the DPJ is going to exploit this mostly-Iraq angle once the Diet convenes on Sept.10.

That's how I remember the exchange, though I probably misremember much of the details. (Like, was that Edano, or really Maehara?) (MTC, did you videotape it?)

Now I have a request. Do any of you know how to find the web pages? It appeared to have "Operation Iraqi Freedom" emblazoned at the top, a big picture of a couple of naval vessels, and tables to show how much fuel oil have gone where. I can't find it here.

The Revolving Door at the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

MAFF Minister	tenure	time served
Toshikatsu Matsuoka	06.09.26-07.05.28	245 days
Norihiko Akagi	07.06.01-08.01	62 days
Masatoshi Wakabayashi	07.08.01-07.08.27	27 days
Takehiko Endo	07.08.27-07.09.03	8 days
Masatoshi Wakabayashi	07.09.03-?	?

Note that the tenure is getting shorter and shorter. This trend should stop, barring extraordinary revelations, as Mr. Wakabayashi, the ex-Environment Minister, has been called back as MAFF Minister, this time "permanently".

Mr. Wabayashi also executed the MAFF minister's duties in the brief interregnum between Mr. Matsuoka and Mr. Akagi, but that routinely happens when ministers travel overseas and is not an appointment.

Also jettisoned was first-term Yukiko Sakamoto as the Upper House Vice Minister at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The local LDP branch, which she chairs, and her own support association had been using multiple copies of single receipts as evidence for cost related to "meetings". As for the others with "politics and money" issues, Fukushiro Nukaga (Minister of Finance), Mitsuhide Iwaki (Chief Cabinet Secretary; Upper House), and Kanji Hagiwara (Vice Minister; Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry; Upper House) have been spared the sword; likewise on the LDP party side Toshihiro Nikai (Chairman, General Council) and Nobuteru Ishihara (Chairman, Policy Research Council). Two points:

1) You are responsible for the actions of your subordinates.
2) Mistakes are forgiven but falsehoods are not.

The Secretary-General, the Chairman of the General Council, and the Chairman of the Policy Research Council are the Big Three of the LDP. Since the President of the LDP usually serves as Prime Minister (Yohei Kono is the only LDP President who failed to do so; he had to settle for Speaker of the Lower House), the Big Three are in charge of the day-to-day activities. The Secretary-General oversees the political machine and is the most powerful. The General Committee Chairman nominally outranks his counterpart at the Policy Research Council, but is usually seen as a less powerful figure. Thus, the position has often served as a political reward to long-serving and affable - if not quite top-shelf talent – party stalwarts. (PRC policy decisions must receive GC approval before it becomes official party policy but the GC almost unfailingly rubberstamps the PRC decision.

Seriously, there is a sliver lining for the LDP to this mess. Cabinet appointments and the length of such tenures are highly valued in determining who gets what in the twice-yearly Imperial Honors. If things have not changed since I was involved in the peripheries, tenure is tallied by the year regardless of the actual number of days served. In other words, one day as Cabinet Minister is just as valuable as the entire calendar year in determining your service to the nation. Thus, Mr. Akagi and Mr. Endo have already earned a year as Cabinet Minister towards whatever award that awaits them when they pass the age of 70. (Gaijins can and do receive them earlier.) Mr. Matsuoka should have no use for those two years regardless of where he is now. Still, together with the permanent replacement for MAFF Minister, the Abe administration will have used the one calendar year to help bestow Imperial favor on three – likely four, since Mr. Wakabayashi should be allowed to count his non-overlapping tenures at MOE and MAFF as one year each - worthies among the party faithful.

They Said that Christopher Hill Was a Good Man

Indeed, everybody heaped praise on Christopher Hill when he assumed responsibility for North Korea. However, an assistant secretary is an assistant secretary. When the Bush administration puts an assistant secretary in charge and lets everybody else walk away and cares so little that a crucial bank transfer can lie in limbo for two months, while the rest of the deal comes to a dead stop, then it's hard not to draw the conclusion that the Bush administration isn't really worrying about nuclear proliferation when it comes to North Korea. Which means, I think, that the Abe administration can put off making hard decisions with respect to the abductees issue for the time being, even as the Six-Party talks are being readied for resumption.

Are You Old Enough to Remember When We Stopped Asking for the Scotch Tape And Why?

Yes, Scotch Tape™ is still around. For that matter, so is Kleenex™ and Saran Wrap™ and Xerox™ and that's about all I can remember. For the very young, these are trademark names that morphed into generic terms, then morphed back into the specific. Does anyone have any idea how this happens? And how are they different from Hotchkiss, still a generic name for staplers in Japan and Korea, and Hoover, likewise in the UK for vacuum cleaner? (Or so I hear.)

I would appreciate any leads.

BTW, I think that "let it out" is somewhat inappropriate as a slogan for Kleenex™. But maybe that's just me.

Turn Around and They're Two: Whither the Koizumi Children?

And ere he blew three notes (such sweet
Soft notes as yet musician's cunning
Never gave the enraptured air)
There was a rustling that seemed like a bustling
Of merry crowds justling at pitching and hustling,
Small feet were pattering, wooden shoes clattering
Little hands clapping and little tongues chattering,
And, like fowls in a farmyard when barley is scattering
Out came the children running.

- Robert Browning, from The Pied Piper of Hamelin

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Dear T:

It was very kind of you to inquire about the well-being of the Koizumi Children. I am sure they appreciate your concern. As it happens, today's Sankei has an article wrapped around the most recent meeting of Atarashii Kaze (New Wind) (est. 20 Dec. 2006), where Tsutomu Takebe, then-Prime Minister Koizumi's second-in-command for the LDP commissariat, brought together 24 first-term Upper House members and two second term members, all unaligned, under a gaggle of (actually, eight from five factions, including Mr. Takebe) seasoned backbenchers to promote "reform together with the people". The article, somewhat ominously, states that 17 of 21 first-term members attended the meeting. About to turn two (2006.09.11), the Koizumi children are being buffeted by the aftershocks from the Upper House election debacle.

The headline says it all:

Koizumi Children Fearful; Will Official [LDP] Candidates Be Replaced if Lower House is "Dissolved by Year End"?

According to the article, party HQ conducted an assessment of the electoral prospects of its 300 single-seat district Lower House members and found that only about 70 were favored to win, while the first-term members collectively projected as a near-total disaster. In order to maintain at least 240 seats (which, together with the New Komeito seats, should allow the ruling coalition to maintain its hold on the Lower House), Taro Aso, Secretary-General, and Yoshihide Suga, party election czar, intend to force Lower House members who have no hope of getting reelected to step down in favor of stronger candidates.

Normally, forcing out incumbents is not an easy task. Mr. Koizumi tried to do that for the last Upper House election; of the six, seven people targeted, only one stepped down. But these are not normal times, and first-term members lacking deep local roots who slipped in on Mr. Koizumi's sizeable coattails are particularly vulnerable. The article says that this policy is being met with approval from the majority of the LDP, and that second-fourth term members are particularly resentful of what they see as a bunch of pampered rookies whose careers had been promoted at their expense.

This is crunch time for the 66-year old Mr. Takebe as well, if he is to tighten ship with this motley crew in his efforts to build a durable power base of his own, if indeed that is his desire

Has Norimitsu Ohnishi Done It Again with His Take on Shinzo Abe's Visit to India?

Here is Norimitsu Ohnishi's latest take on Shinzo Abe's history issues.

Mr. Ohnishi points to the continued popularity in Japan of Radhabinod Pal, the Indian jurist and lone dissenting judge at the Tokyo Tribunals (he called for complete acquittal of all the defendants). The hook for his article is, of course, Mr. Abe's tribute to Judge Pal before the Indian Parliament and his meeting with the judge's 81 year-old son on his what-I-did-on-my-summer-vacation trip to India.

Mr. Ohnishi's point is that "many of postwar Japan’s nationalist leaders and thinkers have long upheld Judge Pal as a hero, seizing on — and often distorting — his dissenting opinion at the Tokyo trials to argue that Japan did not wage a war of aggression in Asia but one of self-defense and liberation. As nationalist politicians like Mr. Abe have gained power in recent years, and as like-minded academics and journalists have pushed forward a revisionist view of Japan’s wartime history, Judge Pal has stepped back into the spotlight, where he remains a touchstone of the culture wars surrounding the Tokyo trials." Although he does not say so explicitly, it is hard not to draw the conclusion that Mr. Ohnishi, by blurring the conceptual boundaries between the war and war crimes, is alleging that Mr. Abe is one of those people trying to argue that "Japan did not wage a war of aggression in Asia but one of self-defense and liberation."

But then, what to make of Mr. Abe's August 15 words of contrition on the occasion of the commemoration of the end of the war:

In WW II, Japan caused much loss and pain to the many countries, the people of the Asian nations in particular. As the representative of the people [of Japan], with a deep sense of regret, I sincerely express my feelings of sorrow to the people who became the victims.

This does not sound like the words of a man claiming "self-defense and liberation". In fact, it sounds very much like the words of a man who would knowingly pay tribute to a jurist who was convinced that "the evidence is still overwhelming that atrocities were perpetrated by the members of the Japanese armed forces against the civilian population of some of the territories occupied by them as also against the prisoners of war".

The war, most thinking Asians will tell you, had many faces, and all but the hard-core right-wing nationalists here will admit that, at a minimum, we – if not we alone - wronged the Chinese and Koreans. Mr. Ohnishi by insinuation conflates every dissenting Japanese voice – including, yes, Mr. Abe's - with the diehard denialists.

Unlike this case (of which NYT made what could be charitably called an invisible retraction), there is no obvious error on the facts. Perhaps he has wised up and decided to let the critique coalesce in the reader's mind. But I will elect to take a more accommodating view; that Mr. Ohnishi thought that Western readers, American ones in particular, would find Justice Pal's views on the war as a whole so unfamiliar and displeasing that they could be safely introduced only as background to that familiar and greatly exaggerated right-wing resurgence trope.

The First Casualty of the New Abe Administration?

Takehiko Endo, the new Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery, is the head of an agricultural mutual aid cooperative that illegally received an extra 1.15 million yen in government subsidies for its agricultural disaster mutual aid fund by inflating the number of subscribers to the fund. Of the 265 subscribers it claimed it had, 105 had not even been aware that their names had been used. The fraud was discovered in 2004 by the National Accounting Agency, but after three years, the money has yet to be returned.

Mr. Endo says that he is not resigning, claiming that the butler manager in charge did it and that he did not order it. Whichever; I think that this looks at least as bad as the political financing irregularities that took down Norihiko Akagi, for practical purposes the previous MAFF Minister, though not quite as serious as the influence peddling charges that likely led to the suicide of Toshikatsu Matsuoka, who in turn preceded Mr. Akagi at MAFF.

This reminds me of those Japanese ghost stories, where the ghost keeps coming back, again, and again, and again, until the main character goes insane and kills himself. He often manages to take down a lot of people around him in the process. A chilling summer staple of the mainlly humorous rakugo, the Japanese sit-down monologue genre.

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Incidentally, Chief Cabinet Secretary and everybody's favorite Kaoru Yosano is saying that they are reserving judgment until Mr. Endo explains himself. They are not interested in the explanation (if they don't know by now…), they want to know how it plays in the media. I think they ought to be more proactive, though they're damned if they do, and damned if they don't.

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ADD. In Japan, men sometimes shave their heads as a sign of atonement. Maybe that's what Mr. Endo has done. Or he doesn't have that option in the first place.

First Order of Business at the Cabinet Session? Balancing the Factions

The new Abe Cabinet held an extraordinary session today (Aug. 29, a Wednesday; the Cabinet meets twice a week on Tuesday and Friday) and appointed the 22 senior vice-ministers (LDP 19, New Komeito 3) in the respective ministries and the Cabinet Office. For the appointees - In the case of the LDP, third (or in rare cases fourth) term Lower House Members and second term Upper House members - this is an important step in building resumes, and they are expected to use the opportunity to familiarize themselves with the territory and the people who populate it, and the bureaucracy does its best to oblige. As a result, they tend to become close to their respective ministries and their jurisdiction.

You may have guessed that a senior vice-minister does not wield much real power. That is also evident from something Asahi points out quite baldly in its headline Deputy Vice-Minister Emphasis on Factional Balance, 22 Appointed as well as the text, which gives the following list:

Tsushima faction 4, Machimura faction 3, Koga faction 2, Yamazaki faction 2, Ibuki faction 2, Tanigaki faction 2, Komura faction 1, Aso faction 1, Nikai faction 1, Unaligned 1.

Note that the largest Machimura faction has one fewer than the next largest Tsushima faction. That is only appropriate, since the Prime Minister's faction is expected to show humility in dividing the spoils. Also significant is the fact that the Tanigaki faction is the only U-16 micro-faction to have two. Consider this an analgesic for being shut out (against Mr. Mori's advice) from the Cabinet and the main party posts.

For even more junior coalition Diet members, there are the parliamentary vice-minister appointments. Expect more of the same.

This Is Why We Play the Game: from the Abe Administration Poll Numbers

STATISTICS
Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
- Autobiography of Mark Twain

Here are the support/do not support poll figures for the Abe adminstration, post-election and post reshuffle:

Support Abe administration

	Jul.30-31	Aug.27-28
Asahi	26%	33%
Yomiuri	31.7%	44.2%
Kyodo Tsushin	29.0%	40.5%

Do not support Abe administration

	Jul.30-31	Aug.27-28
Asahi	60%	53%
Yomiuri	59.9%	36.1%
Kyodo Tsushin	59.0%	45.5%

For anyone who does not follow the Japanese media with regularity, the discrepancy between the poll numbers for Asahi and Yomiuri are par for the course and reflect their ideological and political leanings (left-center and center-right respectively). Kyodo Tsushin is a wire service and is considered more or less neutral

Now You Can Read the Extent of Mr. Yano's Anger

Here, on the Asahi website, if you can read Japanese. But hurry, because online Asahi articles are perishable products.

Asahi adds an interesting angle to earlier media reports of Mr. Yano's 30-minute phone call to Prime Minister Abe in protest of his omission from the new Cabinet. According to Asahi, the prime minister tried to placate Mr. Yano by telling him that he would appoint him the next time around.

Assuming that the substance of the phone call is emanating from Mr. Yano himself – the words of Mr. Yano and Mr. Abe are placed in quotation marks, indicating that the reporter talked to, at a minimum, a reliable source who could speak for Mr. Yano:

a) Making such a promise – not out of character for the conciliatory Mr. Abe – is not the best way to make a show of leadership.

b) Going public with the promise is not the best way to make Mr. Abe keep it.

Did Mr. Yano's anger make him speak too rashly? Or did he not think much of the chances of there being a "next time"? I suppose the former, seasoned, perhaps unconsciously, by the latter; though your guess is as good as mine. In any case, this kind of blood in the water does not bode well for Mr. Abe.

Post-Reshuffle Trivia and Speculation on the Counter-Terrorism Act Showdown

I expect a well-rounded English-language recap of the new Cabinet and it implications, past present and future from one of the weekly magazines. In the meantime, there are the bloggers, who provide the color commentary. As such, I offer you some things that caught my attention.

The Upper House LDP had feared that they would lose one of the two seats; they managed to keep both. But they are not happy. Rather, Upper House LDP member Tetsuro Yano is furious. Mr. Yano was widely assumed to have the inside track on one of the Cabinet posts usually reserved for the Upper House, but was shut out. Yomiuri reports that he called the Prime Minister to protest. No class act, true, but it's hard to believe that it was all in his mind and nowhere else.

What is it with the Prime Minister and his ex-faction chief and predecessor Yoshiro Mori? Mr. Mori criticized Mr. Abe for keeping Nobuteru Ishihara (Chairman, Policy Deliberation Commission), Yoshimi Watanabe (Minister for Financial Affairs, etc.) and Akira Amari (METI Minister), saying, "[The first Cabinet] included younger 'children' and was called the 'Friends Cabinet.' That was the 'first year class [of the three-year kindergarten]', but I feel that this one has become a little more 'second year class'. He came down especially hard on Mr. Ishihara (Lower House, Tokyo District No.8), claiming that the LDP needed a Policy Deliberation Commission Chairman (one of the Big Three party posts) from the peripheral provinces (地方chihou, usually - and somewhat misleadingly - referred to as "rural areas"). He had made specific suggestions (again publicly) in the make up of the Cabinet and LDP leadership in the week before the reshuffle. Last year, in the Koizumi succession race, He had openly lobbied for Mr. Abe to step aside in order to allow Yasuo Fukuda to get first crack, to no avail. Perhaps he has never gotten over that double show of disrespect for the natural order of things (leader-follower relationship, seniority).

Yomiuri says Makoto Koga was indeed tapped to be the Chairman of the General Council, on of the Big Three party posts, but had declined, opening the way for Toshihiro Nikai. Perhaps he felt offended at being asked to succeed Yuya Niwa his co-head of the Niwa-Koga faction. The two have a troubled relationship Think, Octavian and Mark Anthony, Stalin and Trotsky.

---

If this were an action movie, the first climax comes over the extension of the counter-terrorism act. The Abe administration is giving every indication that they are willing to compromise on a deal that could include Iraq. It has the right people in the right places saying the right things. If there is no deal, the LDP should be able to pass a new law to its own liking, while bridging the gap between the old and new legislation by emergency logistical arrangements that have US and/or Australian vessels taking up the slack for a few months while the Japanese vessels dutifully shift out then back in to the Indian Ocean. I have no way of determining whether or not such a thing is possible, but it is at least conceivable, and the allied forces would be incredibly stupid not to have worked out such contingency plans. Faced with such a choice, my guess is that Ozawa/DPJ will take the deal that it can get and declare victory and claim – with justification - that it has acted responsibly.

Alberto Gonzales Resigns. Are Things that Bad over There?

Quick, who do you think is going to be the "other" violin?

Actually, this has been going on at all levels of authority. It is an increasingly serious operational problem. For example, the two-month delay in the February Six-Party Talks agreement over the North Korean bank transfer could very well have been due to the sheer lack of administrative expertise available for planning and execution.

Dear MTC: in View of the High Esteem in Which I Know You Hold Kyodo Tsushin...

… it is with the greatest of regret that I must inform you of this unfortunate incident.

To be honest with you, I've lived long enough to know that there, but for the grace of God, go I.

Actually, been there, done that.