Thursday, December 04, 2014

Election 2014: LDP Looking to Secure 300 or More Seats (Yawn)

You know that the LDP-Komeito coalition is in good shape when the virulently anti-LDP Nikkan Gendai kiosk sales pitch for Dec. 4 reads “DPJ 1 Win 24 Losses in Tokyo (Single-Seat Districts)” (for their featured article, click here). The Kyodo Tsushin, Asahi, and Nikkei polls (Dec. 2-3; in Nikkei’s case supplemented by on-the-ground research by its local bureaus) each indicate that the LDP will take 300 or more seats, with Komeito also showing gains and JCP doing even better.

This is, of course, an indictment of the opposition, not a public endorsement of the Abe administration and its policy preferences. So any “mandate” talk from the Abe administration and its opinionating followers will ring hollow. Komeito will make sure of that with regard to any attempts to push the markers further on collective self-defense. And nothing will have changed on the socio-economic agenda beyond the LDP promise to make good on consumption tax exceptions. And that decision technically has preceded the election.

I’m thinking of a “What If” series to do in my spare time instead of obsessing over the election (harder and harder to pay attention to). Like, What if China made Okinawa an offer it couldn’t refuse? or What if the Narita Airport Project Had Gone Ahead as Planned? Please stay tuned.


jaichind said...

Stories like

"Struggling Sony to cut pay even as PM Abe calls for higher wages"

"Japanese bankruptcies linked to yen hit record high"

is another reason I think that LDP will not do as well as polls project. The fundamentals are now working against LDP even as DPJ/JIP seems to bereft of ideas which does mean LDP will win. Question is with such poor fundamentals how big will the win be.

Cecil Uyehara said...

Greetings. I am addressing this note to Jun. I live in Maryland USA, an independent scholar, and you are discussing Senkaku islands and US support. I wrote a short piece to myself about the Senkakus, Japan and US. Would like to share it with you. Possible? My email is
CAn you share your comments with me? Regards, Cecil H. Uyehara

Jun Okumura said...


Sometimes, it happens. Remember, the polls were augmented by district-by-district, boots-on--the-ground surveys.


My email address is one click away, on my profile. YOu can send your piece to me, and I will respond as I see fit. But you must accept that I may post such response here or elsewhere and will reserve the right to refer to your peice in doing so.