Wednesday, December 03, 2014

Election 2014: When 270 ≑ 238 et al from The Arithmetician

The 270-seat threshold for victory that the LDP-Komeito coalition has set for itself and the 238-seat single-party simple majority for the LDP are more or less the same thing if you consider the following. Komeito has won 31 seats in three of the five general elections (34 and 21 in the other two) that it has experienced since it split from Ozawa’s forces and reverted to its role as the virtual political wing of the Sokagakkai, and will certainly perform similarly in this election.

Abe, though, is sticking to his own simple majority threshold for the coalition. Translation: I will not resign even if the LDP loses its single-party majority unless the coalition itself is voted out of office. The LDP will have to wait until the September leadership election. In the meantime, I am going to forge ahead with my legislative agenda. (Good luck.)

 Finally, picking nits, also keep in mind that the LDP went into the election with 295 incumbents plus the nominally independent President of the House.


jaichind said...

Not sure KP can count on 31 seats this time. I think in a low turnout election the KP could do better in the PR vote section. On the other hand 4 out of the FPTP seats KP won was in Osaka and 2 were in Hyōgo for 2012. In all 6 cases it had the support JRP. This time around JIP is going with DPJ (more or less.) If JIP and DPJ joins forces in these 6 seats not sure if KP can manage to hold on to them.

Jun Okumura said...

I dunno about that. The JRP was nothing more than a charismatic leader attracting independent voters (and, later, careerist politicians). How many of them can a much diminished Hashimoto deliver to DPJ candidates? Plus, Komeito will pick up a seat, minimum, in Tokyo, where Ohta will beat Ozawa acolyte Ai Aoki in a single-seat district race.

Jun Okumura said...

And Sokagakkai rocks in the Kansai region.

jaichind said...

You make very good points. I got to look at the seats one by one and look at who is running. It seems KP is not being challenged by JIP in several seats and even in the ones where they are it does not look like they would be much of a challenge. I agree that Ota has it in the bag in Tokyo as well but he won in 2012 as well. I think one place KP is vulnerable is in Hokkaido 10th. The DPJ and NPD alliance should be enough to win back that seat. I agree that KP will gain that back on the PR side it not more.