One of the quirks of Japanese defense procurement is that trading companies have traditionally acted as go-betweens for foreign vendors in their dealings with the Self-Defense Agency (now the Ministry of Defense). This is why trading companies showed up in the center of the 1976 Lockheed bribery scandal, which took down a Prime Minister (Kakuei Tanaka), a Transport Minister (in Japan, although the Grumman-Lockheed battle for the JSDA next-generation fighter was at the core of the controversy, the criminal case revolved mainly around government influence on the procurement of civilian aircraft by Japanese airlines), the Marubeni CEO, and a host of other lesser political figures and businessmen. (It also spawned the New Liberal Club, the first of the so-far unsuccessful challenges to provide a viable alternative to the LDP.) They were also featured in the 1978 Grumman/McDonnell-Douglas bribery scandal, which threatened to implicate LDP politicians, before the investigation petered out the following year after a key witness, a senior executive in the trading company Nissho-Iwai (now part of Sojitsu), committed suicide, leaving many questions unanswered. Raizo Matsuno, the one Diet member whose career was derailed by the scandal, managed to escape prosecution. Things have changed little, if the latest scandal is any indication.
Shigeru Ishiba, the LDP defense otaku, doesn’t like this state of affairs one bit, and has long been an advocate of taking the trading companies out of the procurement process and dealing directly with vendors. Now, as Minister of Defense, he is in a position to do it. And, as luck would have it, the Takemasa Moriya scandal gives him the opportunity to do something about it, and he vowed this morning on the Sunday Project, the must-see program for Japan politics otakus), to do just that.
It will not be an easy task; the bureaucracy will be required to do a lot of homework that the trading companies had been doing for them, and people do not become smart overnight. Less significantly, foreign vendors will have to face the consequences of the American Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (1977) or the EU equivalent thereof. But the establishment has no choice, since corruption is something that the public can wrap its mind around, and the extension of the refueling operations, on which so much of the Fukuda administration’s credibility depends, will turn on how Mr. Ishiba handles not only Takemasa Moriya (under the bus, drawn-and-quartered, Class A War Criminal), but the broader issue as well.
The silver lining for the LDP in the latest defense procurement scandal is that it does not look likely to implicate anyone beyond the bureaucracy. In that sense (and that sense only), it is more like the Defense Facilities Administration Agency scandal, where it came to light that former DFAA officials employed by construction firms and other vendors had been at the center of widespread collusion in bidding for DFAA contracts. The DFAA was fully folded in the Self-Defense Agency as a consequence, allowing the mainstream JSDA bureaucracy to rein in the somewhat autonomous DFAA.
I suspect that there are some people out there who are wondering, what are the political prospects of Shigeru Ishiba if he saves the day? For my two bits: zero chance of becoming Prime Minister. He’s a one-trick pony, and defense wins only in the NBA.
Mr. Ishiba’s DPJ soulmate Seiji Maehara joined him on Sunday Project. Think Romeo and Juliet, without the sex. Yes, they argued. Three things caught my attention:
Mr. Maehara stated at least twice that the DPJ has never claimed that the OEF-MIO operations are unconstitutional and that Ichiro Ozawa’s views are his personal opinions, nothing more. This is, of course, not what the public is hearing from Mr. Ozawa and Yukio Hatoyama, his DPJ deputy and two-time party head.
Mr. Maehara gave the lack of proper governance and civilian control, citing the long string of JSDA/MOD misdeeds (he mentioned corruption in the JDAA, the Winny information leaks, 800,000/200,000 gallon discrepancy, missing ship logs, and possibly one or two others; Shisaku should have the video tape) as the main reason for opposing extension. As for the 800/200 K, he repeatedly said that it was one thing to say that there had been mistakes back then, but the refueling activities are crucial to Japan’s national interest and quite another to claim that nothing was amiss and demand that the extension be passed under that premise. This is, of course, not what the public is hearing from Mr. Ozawa and Yukio Hatoyama, his DPJ deputy and two-time party head.
Mr. Maehara would not say that the DPJ would submit a bill on Japanese participation in ISAF, no matter how hard Sōichirō Tawara, the ugliest emcee this side of the Crypt Keeper, pushed him. Only an outline; that seems to be the limit for Mssrs. Ozawa, Hatoyama, and Maehara. For now.
Showing posts with label Ozawa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ozawa. Show all posts
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Body Count and Other Matters in the Defense Ministry Civil War
The preliminary body count is in on the civil war in the Ministry of Defense. Takemasa Moriya, the vice minister, is on the outs, and will be succeeded by Kouhei Masuda (class of 75). Such being the case, it is obvious that MOD Minister Koike Yuriko's first choice, Tetsuya Nishikawa (72), and Shinjirou Yamazaki (74), the vice minister's counterproposal have to go; likewise the two other bureau and agency heads who have seniority over the vice minister-select. They are the collateral damage. But what is the outcome of the war? And the implications for the geopolitical landscape, as it were?
The Abe administration had hoped to clean house and go into the September Diet session with a new team of party leaders and Cabinet members. Yet they allowed a personnel decision to get out of hand and reinforce the image of a pleasant but detached, behind-the-curve prime minister. It is by no means fatal, but certainly narrows the margin of error for the ruling coalition.
Even as it achieved full ministry status in January with the bipartisan blessing of the DPJ, the Ministry of Defense had been plagued with public procurement scandals and repeated information leaks. Particularly in view of the security breaches, it was not reassuring to know that the minister and her deputy had been contacting each other by way of cell phones. That, more than the unseemly sight of an openly rebellious bureaucracy, showed that MOD was not yet quite ready for prime time.
As for the Defense Minister herself, her chances of remaining beyond the August 27 makeover remain strong. As a very recent Cabinet appointee (July 4) Ms. Koike would have been the one obvious holdover candidate in the first place. Although her handling of events showed weaknesses in her executive tool kit and the media and some LDP members has taken her to task for that, it is difficult for the public to understand why a minister cannot hire and fire her own administrative deputies against the wishes of the bureaucracy. With public sentiment already running against the bureaucracy, I do not think the Abe administration wants to put itself in the position of punishing Ms. Koike.
Then, there are the real issues.
There are two major security issues that require attention. One is the realignment of US forces in Japan (and the Pacific) and, most importantly, easing the burden on Okinawa; the other is the overseas projection of Japanese military potential.
According to media reports from both ends of the political spectrum, Okinawa warmed to Ms. Koike during her tenure in the Koizumi Cabinet as she took on the Okinawa/Hokkaido (it's a long story) portfolio while continuing to serve as Environment Minister. Perhaps it was little more than political theater, like the kariyushi wear that she highlighted as part of the Cool Biz energy conservation campaign for the Koizumi administration. But then, so much of the politics of Okinawa is theater high and low. In any case, she most recently showed that her Okinawa ties were in good order when Yoshikazu Shimabukuro, mayor of Nago, showed up "unexpectedly" at a kariyushi promotion event in Okinawa on Thursday featuring Ms. Koike and supported her dismissal of Mr. Moriya (who is not a popular figure in Okinawa). Japan and the US agreed in 1996 to relocate the massive Futenma US air base to Nago on Henoko Bay within seven years maximum. But little could be done until the newly-elected Mayor Shimabukuro agreed in April 2006 to accept the transfer, and difficult negotiations still lie ahead in order to finalize plans, let alone begin construction. Thus, Mr. Shimabukuro's continued support is crucial if the long-delayed realignment is to go ahead. And any progress that has the blessing of the local authorities will work in favor of the Abe administration, even if actual construction could only begin some time in the future. This clearly works in favor of Ms. Koike's continuation as Defense Minister.
The extension of the overseas role of the Self-Defense Forces is a different matter. For practical purposes, this issue currently has two components: providing air transport in and out of Iraq; and refueling allied ships on the Indian Ocean for operations in Afghanistan. Each has its own renewable legislation, and the counter-terrorism act that gives authorization for Afghanistan expires on November 1. The problem for Ms. Koike is that she and Ichiro Ozawa, the DPJ chief, have a past. Early in her well-traveled career, she was an Ozawa protégé. However, she declined to leave the coalition government when Mr. Ozawa led his then Liberal Party back into the opposition in 2000, and instead remained as part of the rump Conservative Party that eventually was folded into the LDP. Most recently, she criticized Mr. Ozawa's adamant opposition to the renewal of the counter-terrorism act. This was very much a performance in character for the feisty Defense Minister. Retaining Ms. Koike certainly is not an auspicious turn of events for compromise; the kind of compromise that the coalition government needs to reach in order to secure an extension by Nov. 1.
The Abe administration had hoped to clean house and go into the September Diet session with a new team of party leaders and Cabinet members. Yet they allowed a personnel decision to get out of hand and reinforce the image of a pleasant but detached, behind-the-curve prime minister. It is by no means fatal, but certainly narrows the margin of error for the ruling coalition.
Even as it achieved full ministry status in January with the bipartisan blessing of the DPJ, the Ministry of Defense had been plagued with public procurement scandals and repeated information leaks. Particularly in view of the security breaches, it was not reassuring to know that the minister and her deputy had been contacting each other by way of cell phones. That, more than the unseemly sight of an openly rebellious bureaucracy, showed that MOD was not yet quite ready for prime time.
As for the Defense Minister herself, her chances of remaining beyond the August 27 makeover remain strong. As a very recent Cabinet appointee (July 4) Ms. Koike would have been the one obvious holdover candidate in the first place. Although her handling of events showed weaknesses in her executive tool kit and the media and some LDP members has taken her to task for that, it is difficult for the public to understand why a minister cannot hire and fire her own administrative deputies against the wishes of the bureaucracy. With public sentiment already running against the bureaucracy, I do not think the Abe administration wants to put itself in the position of punishing Ms. Koike.
Then, there are the real issues.
There are two major security issues that require attention. One is the realignment of US forces in Japan (and the Pacific) and, most importantly, easing the burden on Okinawa; the other is the overseas projection of Japanese military potential.
According to media reports from both ends of the political spectrum, Okinawa warmed to Ms. Koike during her tenure in the Koizumi Cabinet as she took on the Okinawa/Hokkaido (it's a long story) portfolio while continuing to serve as Environment Minister. Perhaps it was little more than political theater, like the kariyushi wear that she highlighted as part of the Cool Biz energy conservation campaign for the Koizumi administration. But then, so much of the politics of Okinawa is theater high and low. In any case, she most recently showed that her Okinawa ties were in good order when Yoshikazu Shimabukuro, mayor of Nago, showed up "unexpectedly" at a kariyushi promotion event in Okinawa on Thursday featuring Ms. Koike and supported her dismissal of Mr. Moriya (who is not a popular figure in Okinawa). Japan and the US agreed in 1996 to relocate the massive Futenma US air base to Nago on Henoko Bay within seven years maximum. But little could be done until the newly-elected Mayor Shimabukuro agreed in April 2006 to accept the transfer, and difficult negotiations still lie ahead in order to finalize plans, let alone begin construction. Thus, Mr. Shimabukuro's continued support is crucial if the long-delayed realignment is to go ahead. And any progress that has the blessing of the local authorities will work in favor of the Abe administration, even if actual construction could only begin some time in the future. This clearly works in favor of Ms. Koike's continuation as Defense Minister.
The extension of the overseas role of the Self-Defense Forces is a different matter. For practical purposes, this issue currently has two components: providing air transport in and out of Iraq; and refueling allied ships on the Indian Ocean for operations in Afghanistan. Each has its own renewable legislation, and the counter-terrorism act that gives authorization for Afghanistan expires on November 1. The problem for Ms. Koike is that she and Ichiro Ozawa, the DPJ chief, have a past. Early in her well-traveled career, she was an Ozawa protégé. However, she declined to leave the coalition government when Mr. Ozawa led his then Liberal Party back into the opposition in 2000, and instead remained as part of the rump Conservative Party that eventually was folded into the LDP. Most recently, she criticized Mr. Ozawa's adamant opposition to the renewal of the counter-terrorism act. This was very much a performance in character for the feisty Defense Minister. Retaining Ms. Koike certainly is not an auspicious turn of events for compromise; the kind of compromise that the coalition government needs to reach in order to secure an extension by Nov. 1.
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