Yomiuri Polls Have Losers, No Winners

In a recent Yomiuri poll (January 31-Feb.1) Junichiro Koizumi, the ex-Prime Minister who announced his retirement and in the same breath willed his seat to one of his more obscure sons (where will be hearing that story soon, hmm?), places first, but Ichiro Ozawa has opened up a huge gap between himself and the LDP leaders, including the hapless incumbent Taro Aso. The bad news for Ozawa is that he remains mired in the low teens. Ozawa is not winning; Aso is losing, and no one else in the LDP is picking up the slack. This changes little about my views of the political game, even as the incredibly casual, make-it-up-as-we-go-along Aso administration lurches from one unsettling statement to another with potentially enormous consequences for statecraft.

While waiting for some grownups to show and in full awareness that the people responding to this poll may be saying not much more than I’ve seen this guy/lady on TV and I like him/her, let’s see if I can tease a few other facts for your amusement from this poll that the hardcopy version missed.

First, add up the numbers and the LDP still leads the DPJ 35.4% to 22.8% (with others 3.9%, no preference 30.2% and no answer 3.4%). Still, off the top of my head, I can say that the gap has been closed significantly. If this is a portent of voter sentiment come Lower House election time, it is likely that a (relative) majority of the electorate will find it easier to write in the DPJ name on the proportional ballots, just as they did in the penultimate Lower House election. And this time, the DPJ hopes to field the horses to dominate the local races too—not a given, as some of the rides will turn out to hastily trussed up nags—while the LDP candidates hope that incumbency and seditious talk—Koizumi won running against the LDP; maybe we can do the same (if we can figure out what the LDP is these days)—will allow them to keep their seats.

Second, heirloomers outpoll first-generation Diet members 42.0% to 16.2%. Multi-generation Diet members claim four out of the top five places. Support for political reformist Koizumi does not appear to have diminished even after he bequeathed his seat to an offspring with no discernable achievements. The public does not appear to mind Diet members acting like noble in an Ottoman court, at least not in the specific, although powerful elements the DPJ is trying to make it an issue. (Crucially, though, Ozawa himself is likely to harbor dynastic pretentions. It will surprise no one if he stands for election at the last minute in one of the districts in the media-friendly Tokyo neighborhood, leaving no time for his DPJ colleagues to come up with a plausible candidate beside his son.)

Finally, in an apparently simultaneously conducted, joint Yomiuri-Waseda poll had the DPJ now neck-and-neck with the LDP with regard to the ability to rule. Not that they have risen in the eyes of the public in terms of governability; the DPJ is treading water at 50.8% (50.4% in December), but the LDP slipped badly yet again, from 60.7% (67.1%) to 53.0%.

Meanwhile on the policy side, the casualness with which the Prime Minister has dissed Post Office privatization has left me speechless. I mean, can you imagine the Minister who presided over the Post Office if not the privatization process in the Koizumi Cabinet now saying as Prime Minister that he had been opposed to in the first place? In response to a question from the opposition in the Diet? But you see it, so you have to believe it.

This and other flailing and thrashing, mainly but by no means limited to the LDP, would be exceedingly funny if it were not not funny at all. I suspect low voter turnout when they finally hold the election.

Dynasty: Heirloom Candidates as a Function of Party Discipline

This is a follow-up to a dialogue between Janne and me on this post. I thought it merited a posting on its own because it puts forth an idea about the reasons for the heirloom politicians and their relative prevalence that I think makes sense. Such thoughts are always followed in my case by an uh-oh, did I just reinvent the wheel again moment. Let me know if you know any work along my line of reasoning.

In democracies, where the power of the political parties over the electoral process (choice of candidates, campaign funding, etc.) is strong, politicians will be chosen on the basis of merit rather than heritage. Where the political parties are weak and individual start-up politicians are expected to act as political venture business, that is, do his own financing, marketing, sales, after-service, etc., then this places newly-minted challengers at a substantial disadvantage against established incumbents. That is not all. Many of the assets that a lifelong politician has amassed over the years such as contacts and fundraising networks and even a measure of personal loyalty (if the successor has worked closely with the incumbent over the years) can be passed on in the form of political goodwill to an anointed successor. This is particularly effective in the case of a close relative who shares the surname, since that individual can inherit the family brand intact as an heirloom candidate. (I prefer the word heirloom over alternatives such as heritage because it conjures the image of heirloom turkeys, providing me with a most pleasurable sensation when I think of politics.)

This could explain the difference between, say the U.K. and Germany on the one hand and the United States on the other, The much greater prevalence of heirloom politicians in Japan is likely to be attributable to reinforcement by the much stronger social pressure to keep up the family “business” in contrast to the American, sell-out-and-move-to-the-Keys mentality.

To be sure, you must do a far more comprehensive, country-by-country study. But I do think it’s a potentially powerful hypothesis. I’m sure, in fact, that scholars must have done this kind of comparative study already.

Dynasty: The Kennedys

Now, Edward Kennedy may pass the torch to Caroline Kennedy. Who next, David Eisenhower? I cannot believe my eyes. But Robert Kennedy Jr. may have popped the bubble with this:

Robert Kennedy said his extended family would come out en masse for her if she does get the appointment and has to run for election in 2010.

"If she runs, you will see more Kennedys than you have ever seen in your life," he said.

It’s at least as bad as Bill Clinton’s’ two for the price of one. But maybe I underestimate the Americans’ love of royalty and court intrigue.