My thoughts are not coalescing properly these last few days. So I give you this link, where the Washington Realist gives away expensive proprietary information from Eurasia Group for free. Just the tip though.
I posted a comment there, with a sort of proposal for an undertaking, a rating venture for international relations forecasts. If anyone's interested, you know where to find me.
Wednesday, January 03, 2007
Sunday, December 31, 2006
Some Thoughts on Saddam Hussein's Snuff Video
It took less than a day for what looks like a genuine video Saddam Hussein's execution in more or less its entirety to show up on the Internet, than linked by Matt Drudge. A few thoughts:
1. Two big bombings, each killing dozens, immediate follow the execution. But nobody can be sure if this is part of revenge outburst or just business-as-usual. And that pretty much summed up the story for me.
2. Mr. Drudge links to the Google video service. (Perhaps that YouTube purchase is already paying dividends for Google.) The video may or may not be on YouTube as well, but a word search there (as well as at the Google site) turns up so many irrelevancies that only the most obsessive surfer would take the time to wade through them all in the hopes that he (much less often she) will turn up the one video that goes beyond the MSM version. Go to the most frequently viewed/Top 100, and you'll do no better, although the list as of now (Tokyo, Dec.31, 12:30 PM) is dominated by Saddam Hussein takes. Or so they say, for compounding the difficulties are the videos that use Saddam Hussein's execution to trick people into looking at completely different content. This is not an isolated problem. Fake titles (often involving female celebrities in various states of purported undress) are used extensively to perpetrate this petty fraud. Which reminds me of the "Anna Kournikova photo" email that spread a computer virus throughout OECF in 1998… but I digress. Ebay used to let petty con-men cheat its clients out of money; YouTube and its lesser competitors lets them steal your time. I think there's an opportunity for a video-contents selection service that links to interesting, subject-oriented videos in return for watching a short commercial. Or possibly a community of volunteers - WikiTube? – who perform these services for free. Of course, the former may founder on cost, and, as for the latter, who in his right mind is going to volunteer to help bring the best of Brittney Spears to his peers?
3. I'm surprised that the Iraqi authorities took Shisaku's lesson to heart and avoided not only Christmas but New Year's Eve for all of you who obey the Gregorian Calendar. Unfortunately they chose the first day (or eve; the reports conflict, due to Western unfamiliarity with Islamic calendar) of Eid ul-Adha for the event. I'm sure that the Arabic blogosphere is ablaze with speculation about this sinister Zionist/America-hatched plot to heap abuse on the Islam Nation. Which, like most conspiracy stories, begs the question: why would they bother to go to all that trouble? (New Year's resolution memo to self: Start listening to those teach-yourself Arabic tapes immediately.)
4. It's apparently okay for the English-language MSM if it's okay for the Arabic media. Reminds me of the Masako-sama feeding frenzy in Japan after WaPo broke the story. And more generally, the JMSM following up on scandals after they've been reported in the weekly tabloids.
1. Two big bombings, each killing dozens, immediate follow the execution. But nobody can be sure if this is part of revenge outburst or just business-as-usual. And that pretty much summed up the story for me.
2. Mr. Drudge links to the Google video service. (Perhaps that YouTube purchase is already paying dividends for Google.) The video may or may not be on YouTube as well, but a word search there (as well as at the Google site) turns up so many irrelevancies that only the most obsessive surfer would take the time to wade through them all in the hopes that he (much less often she) will turn up the one video that goes beyond the MSM version. Go to the most frequently viewed/Top 100, and you'll do no better, although the list as of now (Tokyo, Dec.31, 12:30 PM) is dominated by Saddam Hussein takes. Or so they say, for compounding the difficulties are the videos that use Saddam Hussein's execution to trick people into looking at completely different content. This is not an isolated problem. Fake titles (often involving female celebrities in various states of purported undress) are used extensively to perpetrate this petty fraud. Which reminds me of the "Anna Kournikova photo" email that spread a computer virus throughout OECF in 1998… but I digress. Ebay used to let petty con-men cheat its clients out of money; YouTube and its lesser competitors lets them steal your time. I think there's an opportunity for a video-contents selection service that links to interesting, subject-oriented videos in return for watching a short commercial. Or possibly a community of volunteers - WikiTube? – who perform these services for free. Of course, the former may founder on cost, and, as for the latter, who in his right mind is going to volunteer to help bring the best of Brittney Spears to his peers?
3. I'm surprised that the Iraqi authorities took Shisaku's lesson to heart and avoided not only Christmas but New Year's Eve for all of you who obey the Gregorian Calendar. Unfortunately they chose the first day (or eve; the reports conflict, due to Western unfamiliarity with Islamic calendar) of Eid ul-Adha for the event. I'm sure that the Arabic blogosphere is ablaze with speculation about this sinister Zionist/America-hatched plot to heap abuse on the Islam Nation. Which, like most conspiracy stories, begs the question: why would they bother to go to all that trouble? (New Year's resolution memo to self: Start listening to those teach-yourself Arabic tapes immediately.)
4. It's apparently okay for the English-language MSM if it's okay for the Arabic media. Reminds me of the Masako-sama feeding frenzy in Japan after WaPo broke the story. And more generally, the JMSM following up on scandals after they've been reported in the weekly tabloids.
Thursday, December 28, 2006
Talk about Them Old Times: the New Administrative Reforms Minister and His Father
Much has been made of Shinzo Abe's desire, or need, to complete the unfulfilled legacy of his father Shintaro Abe, who came this close to becoming prime minister when he succumbed in 1991 to cancer. The elder Abe was not alone in suffering that fate though. Four years later, a heart attack also silenced his contemporary and once-rival Michio Watanabe.
Mr. Watanabe had begun having health problems around the time the elder Abe died, and the LDP had gone into temporary decline during the Hosokawa and Murayama administrations. Thus, the political prospects of the septuagenarian were no longer looking so rosy in 1995 when he departed for that Great Big Diet in the Sky. But in the dry winter of 1985, between cabinet jobs, when he visited Brazil for a fortnight, he was in the prime of his health. It was then that I traveled with him and his entourage as embassy watchdog/gofer/interpreter. (I had been in Brazil for five months then.)
This was definitely not one of those Diet-in-recess "survey missions" that seem to have little effect on subsequent political deliberations. Nor was Mr. Watanabe there, as was the wont of many a politician who visited Brazil and other parts of Latin America, to curry favor with the local Japanese immigrant community from his electoral district (more broadly the prefecture-based kenjinkai). No: for his more or less annual, decidedly private trips usually avoided Sao Paulo and Rio neighborhood, where the bulk of the Japanese immigrant and business communities lived. Instead he would typically make a beeline to Brasilia, look up a couple political figures, then take a four-hour drive on a dusty road to the little town of Paracatu, in whose neighborhood a small, predominantly Japanese agricultural community prospered, and spent a couple of days mixing with the locals. He looked more like the Don back in his hometown of Corleone than anything else. And in a very real way, he was the Godfather of that community. This trip was not much of an exception; he would be making the rounds of a couple of Japanese-Brazilian joint ventures, but the last leg of the trip would definitely be the beloved immigrant community of Paracatu.
Mr. Watanabe's connection with Brazil that led to his ties to that little Japanese immigrant community in Paracatu began when he became Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Mnister in 1978. He took a serious interest in the Cerrado Development Project, which used development loans, grants and other official development assistance from Japan for an irrigation and agricultural project of immense proportions. (Note: The project itself was a success, but the overall Brazilian public and external debt grew to enormous, ultimately unsustainable proportions, and the project did not escape the fallout.) Adjacent to the Cerrado Project site but not part of the project proper, Japanese agricultural cooperatives cleared a much small patch of land and settled several hundred Japanese immigrant farmers there. But this smaller, private-sector project went through some rough patches in its early years, threatening its viability. So, to make a long story short, the farmers contacted Mr. Watanabe, who had become Finance Minster in the meantime, a loan came through from a Japanese agency, and the project was saved and was firmly on its feet by the time I had arrived in Brasilia in March 1985. Mr. Watanabe never made a big deal about this, and no wonder; he stood to gain little from immigrant feedback to his particular home electoral constituency. But he seemed to have fallen in love with those immigrants, and they with him.
Going back to my travels with Mr. Watanabe, I had never met the man, but he had a well-deserved reputation as a hothead, as quick with his brawn as with his brains, a man with a big ideas and a bigger mouth that sometimes got him into trouble. Compared to the suave, impeccably pedigreed Abe the elder, he was a noisy, gauche upstart. Or so we thought. What I saw up close was a very different side of the man.
True, his legendary ability to work a crowd was in full view when he took on the immigrant crowd. The middle-aged ladies and the elderly in particular all but drooled over him. But up close, one on one, he was retiring, almost shy at times, especially with young women, when he had to really force himself hard to make a stab at small talk. In unguarded moments during our travels, he would let on that what we saw was what we really got, he was definitely not the glad-handing type and that he had a hard time remembering names and faces. He did not go out of his way to thank us at every turn, but he never lorded it over us either. In fact, although he never said much about it, he always seemed quietly appreciative of the ways we all tried to anticipate accommodate his wishes. Two incidents stand out in this respect.
At one of our stops, we took more than an hour to check of our hotel, and the schedule had to be knocked back accordingly. Now politicians can be, if anything, an impatient, sometimes impetuous breed who believe that the Sun revolves around them and them only. He is not unusual the politician who would have bawled out the hotel management, his entourage and the government flack of the moment, on this occasion and not necessarily in that order. So imagine my relief when Mr. Watanabe merely mumbled to his secretaries, "Don't let this happen the next time around", and that was the end of it. But this paled in comparison to the next incident.
The four-hour drive to Paracatu is not a particularly scenic or, for Mr. Watanabe, an unfamiliar one. Moreover, this was the last leg of the trip, and we had been all over the huge Brazilian map. Thus, Mr. Watanabe had chartered a small twin-engine plane to fly him and his two secretaries there, and I would join them, presumably as the embassy dignitary-cum-interpreter. The rest of the entourage would drive ahead of the plane, and wait for the plane at the Parcatu airport. Now, with us at the time was the widow of a Paracatu community leader who had recently met his death on the road from Paracatu to Brazil and whose gave we were going to visit. I, in all sincerity, gave up my seat to the widow, and vaguely remember feeling good about myself for doing so.
The Paracatu airport turned out to be little more than a large clearing exposing the red, porous Cerrado soil, a gateless fence separating the airstrip from the dirt road that had taken us there, and a cabana-like bar that doubled as the airport terminal of sorts. We did not have to wait very long for the plane to arrive; first the sound of the propellers, then the plane itself coming into sight. As the plane neared to make its landing, I was distracted and looked away, so I did not see the plane as it was about to touch down. Then all of a sudden, there was a noisy rattle; I look around in surprise, to see the plane going up and away, while everybody else made a commotion. The plane soon returned, this time to land safely. When the plane stopped, we approached; and the visibly shaken secretaries were the first to emerge, then the widow, then finally, Mr. Watanabe himself, subdued, but clearly the most calm and collected of all. One good look at the plane, and we saw a slender protrusion from the fuselage had been bent; worse, one of the propellers had been bent at a sharp angle. A inch or two, one way or other, and the plane would surely have flipped and tumbled all over that dirt patch, at best horribly injuring the occupants and likely worse. The first time around, the pilot had tried to land without lowering the landing gear. He claimed that everything had indicated that the landing gear had been released the first time around. Mr. Watanabe was not amused. He told his secretaries to get to the bottom of this. But that was that for the moment. We continued on with our schedule, Mr. Watanabe acting as if nothing untoward had happened, duly visiting the grave of the community leader, enjoyed an evening cookout at one of the immigrant farmhouses, then retired to another farmhouse where a young recent immigrant couple close to the Watanabe family lived.
So, a couple of days later, we are back in Brasilia, and it nearing the time for Mr. Watanabe and his entourage to leave, their kokoro no sentaku (laundry of the heart) over. It is then that they are talking about the Paracatu accident and I overhear Mr. Watanbe say, "Harattoite yare (Pay them the charter fee)".
Bless you, Mr. Watanabe, wherever you are.
Most of you reading this blog will know that Mr. Watanabe's son is Yoshimi Watanabe, who replaced the ill-fated Genichiro Sada as Administrative Reforms Minister today. And yes, he was a member of that entourage. He handled the logistics jointly as one of two secretaries to Mr. Watanabe. The other secretary was on leave from the insurance company where he was regularly employed; as far as I could gather, he and the younger Watanabe seemed to have been college buddies. The younger Watanabe was in his early thirties then, but still had the unformed feel of someone not long out of college. His buddy/co-secretary appeared to be the slightly dominant figure in this friendship. Easy-going and good-natured, the unspoiled and youthful bachelor at the time did not display the Seisaku Shinjinrui (Policy-Wonk New Breed) gift of the gab of his later, Diet years. The younger Watanbe and I had dinner once in 1988, together with other members of the embassy who returned to Japan that year, but I haven't talked to him since.
So, this time, it's Mr. Watanabe's chance to see if he can catch lightning in a bottle. That will be difficult, if not impossible. He doesn't have an abductees issue to grab (or the issue to grab him, if you prefer to put it that way), a Koizumi to push him to the front of the line, or that Abe charm that felt so cool in small doses. That's a lot of strikes already. And, unlike Mr. Abe's previous Cabinet Chief post, the Administrative Reform portfolio will bring to bear great pressure on him to show real and meaningful progress.
(Note: I recall accompanying the Watanabes on another trip in 1986, likely after yet another of those annual cabinet shuffles that were the de rigeur of the times. I was making myself useful, I suppose. Thus, I may have conflating events from two trips.)
Mr. Watanabe had begun having health problems around the time the elder Abe died, and the LDP had gone into temporary decline during the Hosokawa and Murayama administrations. Thus, the political prospects of the septuagenarian were no longer looking so rosy in 1995 when he departed for that Great Big Diet in the Sky. But in the dry winter of 1985, between cabinet jobs, when he visited Brazil for a fortnight, he was in the prime of his health. It was then that I traveled with him and his entourage as embassy watchdog/gofer/interpreter. (I had been in Brazil for five months then.)
This was definitely not one of those Diet-in-recess "survey missions" that seem to have little effect on subsequent political deliberations. Nor was Mr. Watanabe there, as was the wont of many a politician who visited Brazil and other parts of Latin America, to curry favor with the local Japanese immigrant community from his electoral district (more broadly the prefecture-based kenjinkai). No: for his more or less annual, decidedly private trips usually avoided Sao Paulo and Rio neighborhood, where the bulk of the Japanese immigrant and business communities lived. Instead he would typically make a beeline to Brasilia, look up a couple political figures, then take a four-hour drive on a dusty road to the little town of Paracatu, in whose neighborhood a small, predominantly Japanese agricultural community prospered, and spent a couple of days mixing with the locals. He looked more like the Don back in his hometown of Corleone than anything else. And in a very real way, he was the Godfather of that community. This trip was not much of an exception; he would be making the rounds of a couple of Japanese-Brazilian joint ventures, but the last leg of the trip would definitely be the beloved immigrant community of Paracatu.
Mr. Watanabe's connection with Brazil that led to his ties to that little Japanese immigrant community in Paracatu began when he became Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Mnister in 1978. He took a serious interest in the Cerrado Development Project, which used development loans, grants and other official development assistance from Japan for an irrigation and agricultural project of immense proportions. (Note: The project itself was a success, but the overall Brazilian public and external debt grew to enormous, ultimately unsustainable proportions, and the project did not escape the fallout.) Adjacent to the Cerrado Project site but not part of the project proper, Japanese agricultural cooperatives cleared a much small patch of land and settled several hundred Japanese immigrant farmers there. But this smaller, private-sector project went through some rough patches in its early years, threatening its viability. So, to make a long story short, the farmers contacted Mr. Watanabe, who had become Finance Minster in the meantime, a loan came through from a Japanese agency, and the project was saved and was firmly on its feet by the time I had arrived in Brasilia in March 1985. Mr. Watanabe never made a big deal about this, and no wonder; he stood to gain little from immigrant feedback to his particular home electoral constituency. But he seemed to have fallen in love with those immigrants, and they with him.
Going back to my travels with Mr. Watanabe, I had never met the man, but he had a well-deserved reputation as a hothead, as quick with his brawn as with his brains, a man with a big ideas and a bigger mouth that sometimes got him into trouble. Compared to the suave, impeccably pedigreed Abe the elder, he was a noisy, gauche upstart. Or so we thought. What I saw up close was a very different side of the man.
True, his legendary ability to work a crowd was in full view when he took on the immigrant crowd. The middle-aged ladies and the elderly in particular all but drooled over him. But up close, one on one, he was retiring, almost shy at times, especially with young women, when he had to really force himself hard to make a stab at small talk. In unguarded moments during our travels, he would let on that what we saw was what we really got, he was definitely not the glad-handing type and that he had a hard time remembering names and faces. He did not go out of his way to thank us at every turn, but he never lorded it over us either. In fact, although he never said much about it, he always seemed quietly appreciative of the ways we all tried to anticipate accommodate his wishes. Two incidents stand out in this respect.
At one of our stops, we took more than an hour to check of our hotel, and the schedule had to be knocked back accordingly. Now politicians can be, if anything, an impatient, sometimes impetuous breed who believe that the Sun revolves around them and them only. He is not unusual the politician who would have bawled out the hotel management, his entourage and the government flack of the moment, on this occasion and not necessarily in that order. So imagine my relief when Mr. Watanabe merely mumbled to his secretaries, "Don't let this happen the next time around", and that was the end of it. But this paled in comparison to the next incident.
The four-hour drive to Paracatu is not a particularly scenic or, for Mr. Watanabe, an unfamiliar one. Moreover, this was the last leg of the trip, and we had been all over the huge Brazilian map. Thus, Mr. Watanabe had chartered a small twin-engine plane to fly him and his two secretaries there, and I would join them, presumably as the embassy dignitary-cum-interpreter. The rest of the entourage would drive ahead of the plane, and wait for the plane at the Parcatu airport. Now, with us at the time was the widow of a Paracatu community leader who had recently met his death on the road from Paracatu to Brazil and whose gave we were going to visit. I, in all sincerity, gave up my seat to the widow, and vaguely remember feeling good about myself for doing so.
The Paracatu airport turned out to be little more than a large clearing exposing the red, porous Cerrado soil, a gateless fence separating the airstrip from the dirt road that had taken us there, and a cabana-like bar that doubled as the airport terminal of sorts. We did not have to wait very long for the plane to arrive; first the sound of the propellers, then the plane itself coming into sight. As the plane neared to make its landing, I was distracted and looked away, so I did not see the plane as it was about to touch down. Then all of a sudden, there was a noisy rattle; I look around in surprise, to see the plane going up and away, while everybody else made a commotion. The plane soon returned, this time to land safely. When the plane stopped, we approached; and the visibly shaken secretaries were the first to emerge, then the widow, then finally, Mr. Watanabe himself, subdued, but clearly the most calm and collected of all. One good look at the plane, and we saw a slender protrusion from the fuselage had been bent; worse, one of the propellers had been bent at a sharp angle. A inch or two, one way or other, and the plane would surely have flipped and tumbled all over that dirt patch, at best horribly injuring the occupants and likely worse. The first time around, the pilot had tried to land without lowering the landing gear. He claimed that everything had indicated that the landing gear had been released the first time around. Mr. Watanabe was not amused. He told his secretaries to get to the bottom of this. But that was that for the moment. We continued on with our schedule, Mr. Watanabe acting as if nothing untoward had happened, duly visiting the grave of the community leader, enjoyed an evening cookout at one of the immigrant farmhouses, then retired to another farmhouse where a young recent immigrant couple close to the Watanabe family lived.
So, a couple of days later, we are back in Brasilia, and it nearing the time for Mr. Watanabe and his entourage to leave, their kokoro no sentaku (laundry of the heart) over. It is then that they are talking about the Paracatu accident and I overhear Mr. Watanbe say, "Harattoite yare (Pay them the charter fee)".
Bless you, Mr. Watanabe, wherever you are.
Most of you reading this blog will know that Mr. Watanabe's son is Yoshimi Watanabe, who replaced the ill-fated Genichiro Sada as Administrative Reforms Minister today. And yes, he was a member of that entourage. He handled the logistics jointly as one of two secretaries to Mr. Watanabe. The other secretary was on leave from the insurance company where he was regularly employed; as far as I could gather, he and the younger Watanabe seemed to have been college buddies. The younger Watanabe was in his early thirties then, but still had the unformed feel of someone not long out of college. His buddy/co-secretary appeared to be the slightly dominant figure in this friendship. Easy-going and good-natured, the unspoiled and youthful bachelor at the time did not display the Seisaku Shinjinrui (Policy-Wonk New Breed) gift of the gab of his later, Diet years. The younger Watanbe and I had dinner once in 1988, together with other members of the embassy who returned to Japan that year, but I haven't talked to him since.
So, this time, it's Mr. Watanabe's chance to see if he can catch lightning in a bottle. That will be difficult, if not impossible. He doesn't have an abductees issue to grab (or the issue to grab him, if you prefer to put it that way), a Koizumi to push him to the front of the line, or that Abe charm that felt so cool in small doses. That's a lot of strikes already. And, unlike Mr. Abe's previous Cabinet Chief post, the Administrative Reform portfolio will bring to bear great pressure on him to show real and meaningful progress.
(Note: I recall accompanying the Watanabes on another trip in 1986, likely after yet another of those annual cabinet shuffles that were the de rigeur of the times. I was making myself useful, I suppose. Thus, I may have conflating events from two trips.)
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Good News and Bad News (or Bad News and Good News): The Abe Administration Is Getting Better at Damage Control.
In a news conference late this afternoon, Genichiro Sada expressed his intent to resign as Administrative Reforms Minister.
What the administration got right: They did not let the issue linger; the end came swiftly. They averted a media and DPJ frenzy.
What they did wrong: They let him go public (albeit, as it turned out, to announce his resignation) as if they couldn't/wouldn't make the decision themselves. The Abe administration should at least have telegraphed the notion that they had already made the decision and that Mr. Sada's public appearance would be a pro forma, mea culpa public hara-kiri act of atonement.
It is obvious that the Abe administration is going up the learning curve, and fast, literally by the day. If they get any better, they can go into business as risk management consultants. If they get the chance to become any better than that, they may have no choice.
What the administration got right: They did not let the issue linger; the end came swiftly. They averted a media and DPJ frenzy.
What they did wrong: They let him go public (albeit, as it turned out, to announce his resignation) as if they couldn't/wouldn't make the decision themselves. The Abe administration should at least have telegraphed the notion that they had already made the decision and that Mr. Sada's public appearance would be a pro forma, mea culpa public hara-kiri act of atonement.
It is obvious that the Abe administration is going up the learning curve, and fast, literally by the day. If they get any better, they can go into business as risk management consultants. If they get the chance to become any better than that, they may have no choice.
Crime Continues to Pay Dividends
Zange-banashi, or tales of remorse, used to be a popular genre in Japanese carnival sideshows. Notorious criminals with the gift of the gab, after serving their sentences, would make a living traveling with carnival groups telling their tales of remorse and caution, sometimes with props to lend reality to their tale. One popular figure was Matsukichi Tsumaki, the "Sekkyo Goto", or "Admonition Robber", who had been famous for breaking and entering, tying up his hapless victims, then giving tips on crime prevention advice to his (drum roll please) captive audience. This tradition petered out, as the carnivals themselves suffered the effects of an increasingly mobile population and the growing media and entertainment complex. The post-WW II collapse of censorship undoubtedly contributed to its decline, since the public could get their fix at will from any number of tabloids and weeklies, and, later, TV wide shows.
Now, by Way of a Freakonomics post comes Pros & Cons, a business that provides fraud prevention advice by ex-cons. And that elsewhere Nick Leeson is making a comfortable living managing a soccer club and, yes, telling his tales of caution.
Now, by Way of a Freakonomics post comes Pros & Cons, a business that provides fraud prevention advice by ex-cons. And that elsewhere Nick Leeson is making a comfortable living managing a soccer club and, yes, telling his tales of caution.
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Unless I've Missed Something, This Is the First Scandal to Hit a Cabinet Member
Genichiro Sata, the cabinet minster in charge of administrative reforms, is under the gun for filing a false report on his political finances (Yomiuri, Asahi, Mainichi, Sankei, and Nikkei). It seems he reported 78 million Yen in expenditures between 1990 and 2000 for a non-existent office. Worse, during that period, the office shared the same address as the Tokyo branch of a construction firm owned by his father.
Mr. Sada had been rewarded with a cabinet post for his efforts in rounding up Diet members behind Shinzo Abe. If Professor Honma was Gennifer, then this is the Monica. Mr. Abe will survive this, but it certainly looks like a gloomy winter for his administration.
I don't think Junichiro Koizumi expected this. But I guess my question is, is he surprised?
PS: Mr. Abe has let his instincts hold sway, and has told reporters that he has received a report from Mr. Sada and expects him to investigate the situation and give an explanation to the public. He indulges the offender, and declines the role of "the decider". Wonderful man to have as a friend and neighbor.
Mr. Sada had been rewarded with a cabinet post for his efforts in rounding up Diet members behind Shinzo Abe. If Professor Honma was Gennifer, then this is the Monica. Mr. Abe will survive this, but it certainly looks like a gloomy winter for his administration.
I don't think Junichiro Koizumi expected this. But I guess my question is, is he surprised?
PS: Mr. Abe has let his instincts hold sway, and has told reporters that he has received a report from Mr. Sada and expects him to investigate the situation and give an explanation to the public. He indulges the offender, and declines the role of "the decider". Wonderful man to have as a friend and neighbor.
Quickie for Slow Foreign Correspondents
This must be where your colleagues go when they desperately need a byline and are just sick and tired of writing one more piece about the right wing insurgency.
My Nukes for My Money, Sez North Korea? If you Believe This, I Know a Son of a Nigerian General…
According to the Dec. 26 Asahi Shinbun (too bad, Japanese version only):
According to Lower House member Gaku Hashimoto and others [who joined former Lower House Chairman Yohei Kono in his meeting with Chinese State Council Member Tang Jiaxuan], Mr. Tang explained that "they held heated talks that went into great depth." He stated: "During the consultations, the North Korean side said that they were "willing to dismantle the Yongbyon facilities if the US dropped its financial sanctions. They showed an attitude of a measure of concession."
And here I was, spending all weekend trying to say something about the Six-Party Talks without repeating the following:
1) Japan has de facto abductee-issued itself out of the Six-Party Talks.
2) 1) only matters if North Korea decide to take down its nuclear program.
3) 2) only happens if China and South Korea threaten to cut off economic assistance to North Korea.
4) 3) will not happen.
5) The one possible deal that would result in a measure of regional stability would be one where North Korea tacitly freezes its nuclear weapons-cum-delivery program as the US drops its financial sanctions after confirming that North Korea has stopped engaging in the counterfeiting and drug trades.
How little I knew.
The Yomiuri version tells a similar story, but cites "a person (persons?) belonging to The Association for the Promotion of International Trade, Japan (JAPIT), a Japan-China trade association that is currently headed by Mr. Kono. Mr. Hashimoto is listed as an advisor on the JAPIT website.
And here's the Mainichi version, which gives no indication who did the briefing.
Mr. Hashimoto is by all accounts a highly intelligent, very personable young man, who, although son of ex-Prime Minister Hashimoto, actually was born and raised in his inherited Okayama electoral district; and got into Keio, his father's alma mater, the harder way (i.e. college entrance exams). Perhaps something was lost in translation.
But wait…
So Mr. Kono, the Lower House Chairman and only LDP president in history who did not get to serve as prime minister, goes to China as head of a bilateral exchange association, somebody in his entourage gives a press briefing, and the only thing worthy of note coming out it is Mr. Tang's alleged take on North Korea's take on the Yongbyon facilities? That is very Good News.
Merry Christmas to anybody reading this in the right time zones.
According to Lower House member Gaku Hashimoto and others [who joined former Lower House Chairman Yohei Kono in his meeting with Chinese State Council Member Tang Jiaxuan], Mr. Tang explained that "they held heated talks that went into great depth." He stated: "During the consultations, the North Korean side said that they were "willing to dismantle the Yongbyon facilities if the US dropped its financial sanctions. They showed an attitude of a measure of concession."
And here I was, spending all weekend trying to say something about the Six-Party Talks without repeating the following:
1) Japan has de facto abductee-issued itself out of the Six-Party Talks.
2) 1) only matters if North Korea decide to take down its nuclear program.
3) 2) only happens if China and South Korea threaten to cut off economic assistance to North Korea.
4) 3) will not happen.
5) The one possible deal that would result in a measure of regional stability would be one where North Korea tacitly freezes its nuclear weapons-cum-delivery program as the US drops its financial sanctions after confirming that North Korea has stopped engaging in the counterfeiting and drug trades.
How little I knew.
The Yomiuri version tells a similar story, but cites "a person (persons?) belonging to The Association for the Promotion of International Trade, Japan (JAPIT), a Japan-China trade association that is currently headed by Mr. Kono. Mr. Hashimoto is listed as an advisor on the JAPIT website.
And here's the Mainichi version, which gives no indication who did the briefing.
Mr. Hashimoto is by all accounts a highly intelligent, very personable young man, who, although son of ex-Prime Minister Hashimoto, actually was born and raised in his inherited Okayama electoral district; and got into Keio, his father's alma mater, the harder way (i.e. college entrance exams). Perhaps something was lost in translation.
But wait…
So Mr. Kono, the Lower House Chairman and only LDP president in history who did not get to serve as prime minister, goes to China as head of a bilateral exchange association, somebody in his entourage gives a press briefing, and the only thing worthy of note coming out it is Mr. Tang's alleged take on North Korea's take on the Yongbyon facilities? That is very Good News.
Merry Christmas to anybody reading this in the right time zones.
Saturday, December 23, 2006
The King and Us: Alternate Realities in the Yomiuri World
If you subscribe to Yomiuri Shinbun, you got this very brief page 4 article, which I translate for your reading pleasure:
Jordanian King Holds Talk with Prime Minister Abe
Prime Minister Abe held a talk with King Abdullah of Jordan and concerning the Middle East situation stated that "uncertainty is increasing, with the situation in Iraq worsening and otherwise". [Isn't it supposed to be "not winning" but "not losing."? But there you have it, Honest Abe.] The king responded, saying, "Japan is the largest provider of assistance [I think he means money] in the middle, and I hope that it will play an even greater role."
But a non-subscriber got this:
Japan and Jordan Collaborate on Abductees Issue and Other Matters – Prime Minster and King Hold Talk [HUH?]
To be fair, the full article, whose translation I again provide as a public service for the kanji-kanamijiri-challenged, let's the reader know that the two had other things on their mind; if fact, the bulk of the article is the hard copy version:
Prime Minister Abe held a talk with King Abdullah of Jordan.
Concerning the Middle East situation, the prime minister stated that "uncertainty is increasing, with the situation in Iraq worsening and otherwise". The king responded, saying, "Japan is the largest provider of assistance [I think he means money] in the middle, and I hope that it will play an even greater role." He expressed his intent to collaborate with Japan on the issue of the abduction of Japanese by North Korea and on UN reform
Incidentally, the hard copy people have been enjoying an extra treat, as the stunning Queen Rania has been receiving minor celebrity treatment with two photo ops in the Yomiuri pages, the latest one with her daughter, both in kimonos, with Mrs. Abe being nice to the princess. But seriously, why isn't Mrs. Abe wearing a kimono too? Shouldn't a gracious host do like this guy does? (Note: The guy in the yellow duds, bottom left, not the guy i the middle in this official White House Photo, is the Vietnamese President.)
Jordanian King Holds Talk with Prime Minister Abe
Prime Minister Abe held a talk with King Abdullah of Jordan and concerning the Middle East situation stated that "uncertainty is increasing, with the situation in Iraq worsening and otherwise". [Isn't it supposed to be "not winning" but "not losing."? But there you have it, Honest Abe.] The king responded, saying, "Japan is the largest provider of assistance [I think he means money] in the middle, and I hope that it will play an even greater role."
But a non-subscriber got this:
Japan and Jordan Collaborate on Abductees Issue and Other Matters – Prime Minster and King Hold Talk [HUH?]
To be fair, the full article, whose translation I again provide as a public service for the kanji-kanamijiri-challenged, let's the reader know that the two had other things on their mind; if fact, the bulk of the article is the hard copy version:
Prime Minister Abe held a talk with King Abdullah of Jordan.
Concerning the Middle East situation, the prime minister stated that "uncertainty is increasing, with the situation in Iraq worsening and otherwise". The king responded, saying, "Japan is the largest provider of assistance [I think he means money] in the middle, and I hope that it will play an even greater role." He expressed his intent to collaborate with Japan on the issue of the abduction of Japanese by North Korea and on UN reform
Incidentally, the hard copy people have been enjoying an extra treat, as the stunning Queen Rania has been receiving minor celebrity treatment with two photo ops in the Yomiuri pages, the latest one with her daughter, both in kimonos, with Mrs. Abe being nice to the princess. But seriously, why isn't Mrs. Abe wearing a kimono too? Shouldn't a gracious host do like this guy does? (Note: The guy in the yellow duds, bottom left, not the guy i the middle in this official White House Photo, is the Vietnamese President.)
Thursday, December 21, 2006
Piling on Re FY 2007 Budget Plans
It's easy to say that we (Abe) will cut new issues of government bonds in FY 2007 by more than the 4.4 trillion yen we (Koizumi) cut in FY 2006 when you consider that revenue is estimated to increase 7.6 trillion yen, right? Give the budget plan credit for returning 1.6 trillion in other borrowing tucked away in the special budget for revenue transfers to local governments, and you still have a margin of 1.6 trillion yen, right? But that's being divided between tax reduction (0.41 trillion), automatic increase of revenue transfer to local governments (0.37 trillion), rising public pension and welfare costs (0.56 trillion), and other odds and ends, right?
Well, just because something is easy to say doesn't mean it's… Okay, I give up.
While Mr. Abe has been intimating that, in a reprisal of supply-side economics, we'll grow ourselves out of this fiscal mess, it is also true that he has reiterated his commitment to taking the fat out of government as a prerequisite to taking on the revenue side of the equation. Being a lawyer, I can't vouch for my arithmetic. But the budget does not seem to bear the stamp of a Koizumi acolyte.
But what do I know. Let me know if you find an analysis that actually goes through all the figures.
(Sidebar: There's a certain amount of intellectual laziness in the way the media reports this. Most prominently, the FY 2006 supplementary budget passed by the Diet to little public notice on Dec. 21 (thanks to Professor Honma?) has quietly slashed an extra 2.5 trillion yen in public borrowing from the original budget. Arguably, the FY 2007 Abe adminstration is already 0.9 trillion yen behind the FY 2006 Koizumi/Abe administration.
Well, just because something is easy to say doesn't mean it's… Okay, I give up.
While Mr. Abe has been intimating that, in a reprisal of supply-side economics, we'll grow ourselves out of this fiscal mess, it is also true that he has reiterated his commitment to taking the fat out of government as a prerequisite to taking on the revenue side of the equation. Being a lawyer, I can't vouch for my arithmetic. But the budget does not seem to bear the stamp of a Koizumi acolyte.
But what do I know. Let me know if you find an analysis that actually goes through all the figures.
(Sidebar: There's a certain amount of intellectual laziness in the way the media reports this. Most prominently, the FY 2006 supplementary budget passed by the Diet to little public notice on Dec. 21 (thanks to Professor Honma?) has quietly slashed an extra 2.5 trillion yen in public borrowing from the original budget. Arguably, the FY 2007 Abe adminstration is already 0.9 trillion yen behind the FY 2006 Koizumi/Abe administration.
Gakkyu Houkai(Disintigrating Classroom) in the LDP?
I once argued that the precipitous drop in public support for Prime Minister. Abe was media-driven and implied (stated explicitly? Too lazy to check) that much of it would have been avoidable if he'd played his cards correctly. My (decidedly minority) contention is being rendered moot by the day: in politics, unlike the physical world, perception becomes reality. Whichever came first, Mr. Abe is increasingly seen as a resistible figure. The cabinet minister for self-defense can repeatedly talk in contradiction of what must be surely Mr. Abe's wishes, the foreign minister, and supposedly a hawk at that, spouts off about ceding half of the Northern Territories before the Russians have even agreed to come to the negotiating table, the party policy chief can't seem to keep his mind off/mouth shut on nuclear weapons, and every party leader and his cousin calls on Professor Honma to do the right thing. And the prime minister does not do a thing about any of this.
Think of this as a grade school classroom, where the teacher lets a couple of kids roam, mess with their classmates, and before you know it it's too late none of the kids notice the teacher yelling what with the noise and confusion. But there's no place to transfer your kids to, because the other school across the street is in permanent recess.
The lack of an attractive alternative is actually dangerous for the LDP. Slack encourages flab.
(Sidebar: I'll spare you the details, but all the relevant facts concerning the Professor Honma mess coulda/shoulda/woulda been confirmed within hours of breaking news. I don't understand at all how this had to be dragged out over weeks. Mr. Abe needs an Isao Iijima.)
Think of this as a grade school classroom, where the teacher lets a couple of kids roam, mess with their classmates, and before you know it it's too late none of the kids notice the teacher yelling what with the noise and confusion. But there's no place to transfer your kids to, because the other school across the street is in permanent recess.
The lack of an attractive alternative is actually dangerous for the LDP. Slack encourages flab.
(Sidebar: I'll spare you the details, but all the relevant facts concerning the Professor Honma mess coulda/shoulda/woulda been confirmed within hours of breaking news. I don't understand at all how this had to be dragged out over weeks. Mr. Abe needs an Isao Iijima.)
The News: Yushukan Revisited, "Paris Syndrome", and Lessons Learned during the Lost Decade
A nice counterpoint to this story about Little Nakagawa: Shrine in Japan to Its War Dead Plans to ‘Soften’ Section on China
Do you think they're preparing the way for a prime minister's visit to Yasukuni? Too bad for them China took a stand on War Criminals Class A, not the history question per se. And the Showa Emperor had some issues too.
And the rest of the news…
'Paris Syndrome' strikes Japanese
No, not that Paris. Still, I can't shake the feeling that The Onion has planted this on the BBC website.
'Hiber[N]ation' saves Japanese man
There's one guy who learned something useful.
Do you think they're preparing the way for a prime minister's visit to Yasukuni? Too bad for them China took a stand on War Criminals Class A, not the history question per se. And the Showa Emperor had some issues too.
And the rest of the news…
'Paris Syndrome' strikes Japanese
No, not that Paris. Still, I can't shake the feeling that The Onion has planted this on the BBC website.
'Hiber[N]ation' saves Japanese man
There's one guy who learned something useful.
readers:
Over lunch the other day, a friend of mine who inhabits a lucrative and leisurely ecological niche of the media alerted to me to Lucy Kellaway's column announcing her annual awards for jargon, or "Twaddle". My friend was particularly amused at her awards for email sign-offs where she came down hard on the prevailing practice (in the UK?) of ending business email with "Best". Money quote:
For some time now “Best” has been the preferred way to end a business e-mail, and very sloppy it is too. Best what, I always wonder. It’s like saying Happy instead of Happy Christmas.
I'm not so sure she gets it.
Ms. Kellaway may be too young to remember, but there was a time when people routinely wrote email entirely in the lower-case, and often neglected to sign off, let alone use a closing salutation. Nowadays, I know of only one person who insists on avoiding capital letters in his electronic missives. And most respectable people (assuming that such a concept still exists), at least in their initial stages of any specific exchange, will add a signature.
No-protocol-is-the-best-protocol was okay when cyberspace belonged to scientists, engineers and younger members of the corporate world, and executives left any typing to their personal assistants. But as the Internet grew in volume and density and underlings and assistants moved up the corporate ranks, even top executives had to swim, or sink. With this adoption of email as the preferred medium for all layers of corporate society, some form of closing salutation, not mention the sign-off, was bound to creep in and spread. In this sense, "Best" seems to be analogous to cetaceans redeveloping fins as they (re)adapted to life in the water.
As for what she sees as "sloppiness" in this instant, though, that may be here to stay. Email occupies a middle ground between the formal hard copy letter and the more relaxed, everyday telephone call (or the more extreme text messaging). That "sloppiness" looks more like an accurate reflection of the informal nature of the medium.
It is, no doubt about it, a funny column.
Best
Gad
For some time now “Best” has been the preferred way to end a business e-mail, and very sloppy it is too. Best what, I always wonder. It’s like saying Happy instead of Happy Christmas.
I'm not so sure she gets it.
Ms. Kellaway may be too young to remember, but there was a time when people routinely wrote email entirely in the lower-case, and often neglected to sign off, let alone use a closing salutation. Nowadays, I know of only one person who insists on avoiding capital letters in his electronic missives. And most respectable people (assuming that such a concept still exists), at least in their initial stages of any specific exchange, will add a signature.
No-protocol-is-the-best-protocol was okay when cyberspace belonged to scientists, engineers and younger members of the corporate world, and executives left any typing to their personal assistants. But as the Internet grew in volume and density and underlings and assistants moved up the corporate ranks, even top executives had to swim, or sink. With this adoption of email as the preferred medium for all layers of corporate society, some form of closing salutation, not mention the sign-off, was bound to creep in and spread. In this sense, "Best" seems to be analogous to cetaceans redeveloping fins as they (re)adapted to life in the water.
As for what she sees as "sloppiness" in this instant, though, that may be here to stay. Email occupies a middle ground between the formal hard copy letter and the more relaxed, everyday telephone call (or the more extreme text messaging). That "sloppiness" looks more like an accurate reflection of the informal nature of the medium.
It is, no doubt about it, a funny column.
Best
Gad
Blogger, in Iran: by Way of a Thank You to GD for a Free Lunch
Political Interest has frowned on my habit of picking on old men. (Nag nag nag.) Perhaps then I should insult this young man instead, and give him "a feeling of joy".
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
What Mr. Abe Will Have to Be Thankful for When (Not If) the Six-Party Talks Stall
One of the five other working groups that China proposed is the WG for normalization of Japan-North-Korea relations. We are allowed to presume this covers the abductees issue. But North Korea is not in any hurry to start even the financial WG, the one agreed-to WG, which supposedly was a sop to the North Koreans for agreeing to the reopening of the talks. Thus, it is unlikely that the five WGs will get any traction, even if they do get started sometime in the not-so-near future.
After all, North Korea has gained bragging rights, China and South Korea will support its economy indefinitely, and the US and Japan have little room to maneuver. This is a recipe for stalemate. Let's hope North Korea contents itself with standing pat. China must understand the potential regional consequences of allowing North Korea to step over the viable weapons threshold. Let's hope it is able to act on that understanding if the need arises.
Perhaps it is for the better that the Japan-DPRK WG doesn't get off the ground for the time being. After all, if there is progress on WMDs, Japan will be forced into assuming the role of natural banker to North Korea. At that point, no progress will have been made on the abductees (there can never be a satisfactory accounting sans regime change), and Mr. Abe would be forced into making the unpleasant choice between accepting the abductees status quo and taking itself out of the WMD-driven process altogether.
Perhaps Mr. Abe is politically better off with a nuclear standoff in place. And, so far, events seem to be obliging him.
After all, North Korea has gained bragging rights, China and South Korea will support its economy indefinitely, and the US and Japan have little room to maneuver. This is a recipe for stalemate. Let's hope North Korea contents itself with standing pat. China must understand the potential regional consequences of allowing North Korea to step over the viable weapons threshold. Let's hope it is able to act on that understanding if the need arises.
Perhaps it is for the better that the Japan-DPRK WG doesn't get off the ground for the time being. After all, if there is progress on WMDs, Japan will be forced into assuming the role of natural banker to North Korea. At that point, no progress will have been made on the abductees (there can never be a satisfactory accounting sans regime change), and Mr. Abe would be forced into making the unpleasant choice between accepting the abductees status quo and taking itself out of the WMD-driven process altogether.
Perhaps Mr. Abe is politically better off with a nuclear standoff in place. And, so far, events seem to be obliging him.
Governors Galore in Graduates Gallery at METI
As Yoshinobu Nisaka, METI Class of '73, coasted to victory over the Communist candidate in the Wakayama gubernatorial election, Tetsuji Mochinaga, yet another ex-METI official, Class of '83, announces for the race to replace the Miyazaki (now ex-)governor, who resigned in disgrace and has been judged guilty until proven guilty. At this rate, we'll have to start using our toes to count 'em. (Up to eight ex-METI already?)
And as if to prove that not all things come in threes, the Hiroshima Prefecture Assembly has decided to get in on the act by adopting a resolution that calls on their governor to resign. The LDP/Komeito coalition that had supported the governor since his election also agreed to the resolution… Hmm, I know the perfect ex-METI candidate, clean as a whistle, long on, um, charisma, even longer on wonk… M.T., are you reading this? There's nothing more for you to do at METI…
Seriously, Mr. Mochinaga is long on wonk, short on charisma, but he's bravely standing as the LDOP candidate. Gone are the days when you wanted to run as an independent if at all possible. Can the DPJ come up with someone credible as well?
That, of course, is the 64,000 Yen Question.
And as if to prove that not all things come in threes, the Hiroshima Prefecture Assembly has decided to get in on the act by adopting a resolution that calls on their governor to resign. The LDP/Komeito coalition that had supported the governor since his election also agreed to the resolution… Hmm, I know the perfect ex-METI candidate, clean as a whistle, long on, um, charisma, even longer on wonk… M.T., are you reading this? There's nothing more for you to do at METI…
Seriously, Mr. Mochinaga is long on wonk, short on charisma, but he's bravely standing as the LDOP candidate. Gone are the days when you wanted to run as an independent if at all possible. Can the DPJ come up with someone credible as well?
That, of course, is the 64,000 Yen Question.
Monday, December 18, 2006
Mr. Nakagawa Keeps Talking Nuclear, in Nagasaki of All Places
Chairman Nakagawa: The US Dropping the A-Bomb Is Unforgivable Crime
Mr. Nakagawa, Chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council, made a speech in Nagasaki on the 17th, where he referred to the US dropping of the atomic bomb on Nagasaki and Hiroshima and stated that "the US decision was an unforgivable crime from a humanitarian point of view", and went on to state that "atomic weapons should not be used, and I wish to do the utmost not to let it be used."
Moreover, he said that "Japan is surrounded with a slew of nuclear weapons. A country has emerged that might not hesitate at using them if they don't like the situation. Can a politician be fulfilling his role just by hoping [for peace]" and reemphasized the need for debate over possession of nuclear weapons."
This is yet another one of those tiny page two articles (in this case not even posted on the Yomiuri Japanese language webpage), translated in full for your browsing pleasure.
(Tip: When reading Japanese newspaper articles, assume unless you have evidence to the contrary that anything following a quote is an extrapolation from the comment by the reporter, and not a summary of further words by the speaker.)
Some random thoughts:
I won't disagree with those of you who are thinking, look who's talking.
This is not the best way to start meaningful discussions on what is a real, though in my view still remote, threat to Japanese security.
"Crime" is a pretty strong word, though it could resonate with many US revisionists. But "unforgivable"? Have the Jews forgiven Germany or what?
Do you think he was pandering to the pacifist vote?
Don't worry, we're not going to develop nuclear weapons any time soon. But watch out if North Korea makes further moves toward a deliverable weapons system. And I'm not talking about mounting nerve gas canisters on a Nodong.
My personal takeaway:
Mr. Nakagawa in my view is rightly seen as a hard-line nationalist. But his accusations resonate with a broader historical discontent toward the West. If you find to be one-sided and distasteful such declaratives being delivered in the context of a moral blindness toward (or minimization of) Japan's role as the aggressor, then you should surely agree with me that the popularly dominant Western narrative is not a good starting point for dealing with the world's ills either.
Mr. Nakagawa, Chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council, made a speech in Nagasaki on the 17th, where he referred to the US dropping of the atomic bomb on Nagasaki and Hiroshima and stated that "the US decision was an unforgivable crime from a humanitarian point of view", and went on to state that "atomic weapons should not be used, and I wish to do the utmost not to let it be used."
Moreover, he said that "Japan is surrounded with a slew of nuclear weapons. A country has emerged that might not hesitate at using them if they don't like the situation. Can a politician be fulfilling his role just by hoping [for peace]" and reemphasized the need for debate over possession of nuclear weapons."
This is yet another one of those tiny page two articles (in this case not even posted on the Yomiuri Japanese language webpage), translated in full for your browsing pleasure.
(Tip: When reading Japanese newspaper articles, assume unless you have evidence to the contrary that anything following a quote is an extrapolation from the comment by the reporter, and not a summary of further words by the speaker.)
Some random thoughts:
I won't disagree with those of you who are thinking, look who's talking.
This is not the best way to start meaningful discussions on what is a real, though in my view still remote, threat to Japanese security.
"Crime" is a pretty strong word, though it could resonate with many US revisionists. But "unforgivable"? Have the Jews forgiven Germany or what?
Do you think he was pandering to the pacifist vote?
Don't worry, we're not going to develop nuclear weapons any time soon. But watch out if North Korea makes further moves toward a deliverable weapons system. And I'm not talking about mounting nerve gas canisters on a Nodong.
My personal takeaway:
Mr. Nakagawa in my view is rightly seen as a hard-line nationalist. But his accusations resonate with a broader historical discontent toward the West. If you find to be one-sided and distasteful such declaratives being delivered in the context of a moral blindness toward (or minimization of) Japan's role as the aggressor, then you should surely agree with me that the popularly dominant Western narrative is not a good starting point for dealing with the world's ills either.
Sunday, December 17, 2006
An Aging Japanese Arabist Talks about the Taliban, and Enchants
Chatting away is a small group of mostly distinguished Orientalists in their sixties, seventies. Being neither, I listen attentively, merely interjecting a question or two, just to keep the conversation flowing.
Gradually, one of them begins to dominate the talk. He is an Arabist, but unlike the others comes from what I shall call a real world background. A robust man of now independent means, looking younger than his perhaps seventy years, he has hobnobbed and haggled with princes and prime ministers, business leaders, diplomats. And it is this, his real world experience that has us entranced, for he is relating his experience negotiating with the Taliban, to keep them from blowing up the giant stone buddhas carved out of the cliffs of Bamiyan.
But our narrator's Taliban is a far cry from the rustic fundamentalists, the fearsome allies of the Al Qaeda. Speaking fluent English, well versed in the ways of the world through CNN and BBC, they plead their case eloquently: our women are treated with respect, female doctors and female nurses at work in hospitals taking care of women and their babies; the burqa keeps out the desert sand and dust, they dislike the Al Qaeda; we got rid of the poppy crops but the UN has reneged on its promise of assistance; and of course we promise not to blow up the Bamiyan Buddhas, I'll call our feld commanders right before your eyes……
but what of the reports of girls being denied schooling? where will the next generation of female doctors come from? if the burqa is so good for the health in the desert sand and dust, why don't the menfolk wear them as well? they never kicked out al qaeda and al qaeda did take down the world trade center; the assistance that never came is certainly a shame, but they did blow up the buddhas……
But something is making me hold my tongue. Is it the presence of the learned company, whose rapture I fear to shatter; after all, this is a friendly, after-business chat, where the Arabist has chosen to regale us with his firsthand tale of the Taliban? Yes, but there is something more: the great man is speaking for himself as well: The US, at the head of the coalition of the willing (if not the able) invades Afghanistan, but it is driven at least in part by the desire for a Kazakhstan -to-Pakistan-and-India-by-way-of-Afghanistan oil pipeline. Afghanistan needs the discipline, the Pashtuns the only ones capable of doing this, the Taliban got rid of corruption and the businessmen love it… This is an echo of the East-vs.-West conflict, the grievance of the colonized, the ghost of the Co-Prosperity Sphere, the Harmony of the Five Peoples calling in, after all these years. (And it is this duality of the Japanese role of aggressor and its identification with the victims that lies at the bottom of our difficulties with our neighbors.) The specter has me fascinated; it is I who does not want to break the charm.
But it is getting late, and I must take my leave. The session breaks up at this, as if it had been I, and not the Arabist, who had been holding forth. Perhaps the Orientalists, not so unworldly after all by way of their endless dealing with local authorities, mini-satraps, and dictators, were not as in thrall as I had imagined.
Gradually, one of them begins to dominate the talk. He is an Arabist, but unlike the others comes from what I shall call a real world background. A robust man of now independent means, looking younger than his perhaps seventy years, he has hobnobbed and haggled with princes and prime ministers, business leaders, diplomats. And it is this, his real world experience that has us entranced, for he is relating his experience negotiating with the Taliban, to keep them from blowing up the giant stone buddhas carved out of the cliffs of Bamiyan.
But our narrator's Taliban is a far cry from the rustic fundamentalists, the fearsome allies of the Al Qaeda. Speaking fluent English, well versed in the ways of the world through CNN and BBC, they plead their case eloquently: our women are treated with respect, female doctors and female nurses at work in hospitals taking care of women and their babies; the burqa keeps out the desert sand and dust, they dislike the Al Qaeda; we got rid of the poppy crops but the UN has reneged on its promise of assistance; and of course we promise not to blow up the Bamiyan Buddhas, I'll call our feld commanders right before your eyes……
but what of the reports of girls being denied schooling? where will the next generation of female doctors come from? if the burqa is so good for the health in the desert sand and dust, why don't the menfolk wear them as well? they never kicked out al qaeda and al qaeda did take down the world trade center; the assistance that never came is certainly a shame, but they did blow up the buddhas……
But something is making me hold my tongue. Is it the presence of the learned company, whose rapture I fear to shatter; after all, this is a friendly, after-business chat, where the Arabist has chosen to regale us with his firsthand tale of the Taliban? Yes, but there is something more: the great man is speaking for himself as well: The US, at the head of the coalition of the willing (if not the able) invades Afghanistan, but it is driven at least in part by the desire for a Kazakhstan -to-Pakistan-and-India-by-way-of-Afghanistan oil pipeline. Afghanistan needs the discipline, the Pashtuns the only ones capable of doing this, the Taliban got rid of corruption and the businessmen love it… This is an echo of the East-vs.-West conflict, the grievance of the colonized, the ghost of the Co-Prosperity Sphere, the Harmony of the Five Peoples calling in, after all these years. (And it is this duality of the Japanese role of aggressor and its identification with the victims that lies at the bottom of our difficulties with our neighbors.) The specter has me fascinated; it is I who does not want to break the charm.
But it is getting late, and I must take my leave. The session breaks up at this, as if it had been I, and not the Arabist, who had been holding forth. Perhaps the Orientalists, not so unworldly after all by way of their endless dealing with local authorities, mini-satraps, and dictators, were not as in thrall as I had imagined.
Seasoned Pro Says Insiders think Abe Is Doing a Good Job, But Isn't Getting Credit for It. But Can the Opposition Take Advantage?
It is early in the week, the deals have been cut, and a seasoned pro is holding forth on the Abe administration. Though an insider, it is a small gathering of friendly faces, a relaxed setting, and he appears relatively free of the need to spin, or so it seemed to me. But then, do they
According to Seasoned Pro, the consensus among the insiders is that the Abe administration has been doing a good job so far. It elevated the Self-Defense Agency to a full-rank ministry, and amended the Education Basic Law, both the kind of heavy-duty legislation double that is rarely, if ever, achieved in a short, extraordinary Diet session (to choose a new prime minister). Moreover, it not only managed to maintain the temporary rate hike on the volatile oil tax (much to the chagrin of the automobile industry), but also moved a bit of that road money into the general budget, something the Great Master Koizumi could do. And he hasn’t even mentioned the Beijing-Seoul junket yet. The problem is in perception (and the Town Hall yarase (rigging) debacle cannot be totally laid at the feet of this administration), but it doesn’t help that Mr. Abe has none of that Koizumi flair for the eye-catching sound bite.
Perhaps. And this view is compatible with my contention (mainly articulated over the Narrative of the Eleven Penitents) that Mr. Abe has let the media dictate public perception, while giving them good reasons to turn against him. But, even those successes could (I’m tempted to say “will”, but I’ll defer this much to a veteran from the ternches) come to haunt him in the long—run; if his education reform package fails to address the fundamental cause of the deterioration of the public school system, and the rest of the road money fails to make its way elsewhere, be it the general budget or back in the pockets of the motorists, disillusionment will set in for good.
But for the time being, working in his favor is the economy, which continues to go through a long boomlet. This means that tax returns are soaring; next year, banks will finally dig themselves out of that deficit hole and start paying corporate income taxes again. Among other things, he can kick along the consumption tax question, hopefully beyond next year's Upper House general election.
How will these and other issues stack up as the DPJ reassembles its battered troops and prepares its challenge for the 2007 Upper House general election? The one sure bet is that barring a major scandal that hits Mr. Abe personally, and the coalition manages to maintain a joint majority, he will serve out the first three-year term.
According to Seasoned Pro, the consensus among the insiders is that the Abe administration has been doing a good job so far. It elevated the Self-Defense Agency to a full-rank ministry, and amended the Education Basic Law, both the kind of heavy-duty legislation double that is rarely, if ever, achieved in a short, extraordinary Diet session (to choose a new prime minister). Moreover, it not only managed to maintain the temporary rate hike on the volatile oil tax (much to the chagrin of the automobile industry), but also moved a bit of that road money into the general budget, something the Great Master Koizumi could do. And he hasn’t even mentioned the Beijing-Seoul junket yet. The problem is in perception (and the Town Hall yarase (rigging) debacle cannot be totally laid at the feet of this administration), but it doesn’t help that Mr. Abe has none of that Koizumi flair for the eye-catching sound bite.
Perhaps. And this view is compatible with my contention (mainly articulated over the Narrative of the Eleven Penitents) that Mr. Abe has let the media dictate public perception, while giving them good reasons to turn against him. But, even those successes could (I’m tempted to say “will”, but I’ll defer this much to a veteran from the ternches) come to haunt him in the long—run; if his education reform package fails to address the fundamental cause of the deterioration of the public school system, and the rest of the road money fails to make its way elsewhere, be it the general budget or back in the pockets of the motorists, disillusionment will set in for good.
But for the time being, working in his favor is the economy, which continues to go through a long boomlet. This means that tax returns are soaring; next year, banks will finally dig themselves out of that deficit hole and start paying corporate income taxes again. Among other things, he can kick along the consumption tax question, hopefully beyond next year's Upper House general election.
How will these and other issues stack up as the DPJ reassembles its battered troops and prepares its challenge for the 2007 Upper House general election? The one sure bet is that barring a major scandal that hits Mr. Abe personally, and the coalition manages to maintain a joint majority, he will serve out the first three-year term.
Saturday, December 16, 2006
A JCP/JSP Editorial Masquerading as News Makes Its Way on to the BBC Website
Kidding. But the headline "Japan Rolls Back Pacifist Pillars" is alarming without illuminating.. And the text does not do much to dispel the fear, as it opens with the following declaration:
"Japan's conservative government chipped away at two pillars of the country's postwar pacifism, requiring schools to teach patriotism and upgrading the Defense Agency to a full ministry for the first time since World War II."
At first glance, the BBC seems to want you to believe that this is the doing of "Japan's conservative (sic) government" led by Prime Minister Abe. But the DPJ, the main opposition party, supported both the introduction of patriotism into the Education Basic Law and the Self-Defense Agency upgrade to full ministry rank.
BBC barely acknowledges this fact, and only half of it at that, when it states that the "upgrading of the Defense Agency under the Cabinet Office to a full ministry passed Parliament without significant opposition, propelled by deep concern in Japan over North Korean missile and nuclear weapons development".
From the tone of the article, including a quote from a JCP spokesman, an unsuspecting reader will be led to believe that there is deep dissatisfaction among the Japanese public with the direction the government is taking. Perhaps. And I myself believe that current talk of education reform fails to address the core issues in the failure of the public school system. Still, to insinuate that an administration that "has suffered sharp drops in popularity polls since taking office in September over the perception that he has not paid enough attention to domestic issue" can push these measures in the face of substantive opposition during a short, usually pro-forma Diet session convened to select a new prime minister borders on the absurd.
Whichever side of the debate you happen to fall on, this article does disservice to you. The lack of any mention of Japan's neighbors' reactions, official or private, is also unsatisfactory to say the least. (Though the Japanese media does not seem to be doing any better on this count.)
"Japan's conservative government chipped away at two pillars of the country's postwar pacifism, requiring schools to teach patriotism and upgrading the Defense Agency to a full ministry for the first time since World War II."
At first glance, the BBC seems to want you to believe that this is the doing of "Japan's conservative (sic) government" led by Prime Minister Abe. But the DPJ, the main opposition party, supported both the introduction of patriotism into the Education Basic Law and the Self-Defense Agency upgrade to full ministry rank.
BBC barely acknowledges this fact, and only half of it at that, when it states that the "upgrading of the Defense Agency under the Cabinet Office to a full ministry passed Parliament without significant opposition, propelled by deep concern in Japan over North Korean missile and nuclear weapons development".
From the tone of the article, including a quote from a JCP spokesman, an unsuspecting reader will be led to believe that there is deep dissatisfaction among the Japanese public with the direction the government is taking. Perhaps. And I myself believe that current talk of education reform fails to address the core issues in the failure of the public school system. Still, to insinuate that an administration that "has suffered sharp drops in popularity polls since taking office in September over the perception that he has not paid enough attention to domestic issue" can push these measures in the face of substantive opposition during a short, usually pro-forma Diet session convened to select a new prime minister borders on the absurd.
Whichever side of the debate you happen to fall on, this article does disservice to you. The lack of any mention of Japan's neighbors' reactions, official or private, is also unsatisfactory to say the least. (Though the Japanese media does not seem to be doing any better on this count.)
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