Most Likely Budget Scenario

The Lower House passes the supplementary budget this week, the Upper House rejects it next week, the two Houses meet and do not come to an agreement, and, under the Japanese Constitution, the budget becomes law. Beyond that, things get murky. The underlying situation is such that the more Prime Minister Aso delays, the worse it gets for the coalition, and the New Komeito cannot wait any longer than early January. That does give Mr. Aso enough time to pass legislation for the consumer protection agency and the refueling operations. But will the LDP let him?

My guess: Mr. Aso will fight a snap election with a second stimulus package on the line.

Most likely outcome: It The Lower House vote for the Prime Minister turns on the Communist vote. More to come later, hopefully. In the meantime, from my email a couple of hours and much alcohol ago:

There are so many scenarios for the Japanese scene: it may be 50-50, but it's not a Tunny-Dempsey 50-50, not even a Red Sox-Rays 50-50; it's an Antonio Inoki-Mohammed Ali 50-50.

Th-, th-, th,- that’s all, folks. For tonight.