Saturday, March 27, 2010

Why Losing the July Election Can Be a Blessing in Disguise to the DPJ

I’ve been saying that the DPJ must dump the SDP in order to bring more coherence to policymaking. But the latest uproar over the joint official announcement on Japan Post by cabinet ministers “Anything But” Shizuka Kamei and Haraguchi to raise the JP deposit limit from 10 million yen to 20 million yen and insurance limit from 13 million to 25 million among other things—I’ll come back to this later if time and professional obligations allow—is yet another piece of proof that the PNP (actually Kamei’s one-man show since Tamisuke Watanuki and Hisaoki Kamei lost their seats in the 2009 Lower House election) is a more expensive drag on the DPJ policy agenda.

Kamei is one of the shrewdest political operators around. He makes outlandish demands, but will settle for what he can get. He has been supremely successful in this game—except for a once-in-lifetime miscalculation in 2005, when Prime Minister Koizumi made good on his threat to toss the LDP Lower House members who voted against his JP privatization bill. Fast-forward to 2010, when the first two rounds of contradictory statements among coalition notables have taken up the better part of the last two days: Kamei’s announcement, the complaints from the other cabinet ministers, Hatoyama’s attempt to play both sides of the debate, Kamei’s counterclaim I had the prime minister’s consent!, Hatoyama and his chief cabinet secretary’s counter-counterstatements---but you get the picture.

However, if the DPJ loses enough seats in the July Upper House election to prevent the current three-party coalition to command a there, the SDP and PNP can become useless, since Komeito—at a minimum likely to break even—will be able to give the DPJ a majority all by its lonesome self. And as I’ve been saying for some time now, Komeito is the natural coalition partner for the DPJ. Now, Komeito may decide to stay out of the cabinet and cooperate on a case by case basis. But how can that be as bad as cohabitation with incompatible bedmates?

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Where is that honest to goodness leadership with a spine, and who has actual intelligence? We've been dealing with a bunch of morons far too much.

Jun Okumura said...

Anonymous:

I try to do my best in not allowing my personal feelings to get in the way of understanding what’s going on and what’s going to happen. That said, I have been sufficiently disappointed by Prime Minister Hatoyama to doubt the judgment of the people who put him in that position. The LDP meanwhile blithely elected Sadakazu Tangaki, the next in line, as if the 2009 Lower House election (and the 2007 Upper House election before that) had not happened. The two would make great neighbors, and you wouldn’t think twice before inviting them into your homes. But something gotta give.

What’s sad (and perplexing) is that so many of these people are highly intelligent, serious-minded people who work their tails off, seven days a week.

Anonymous said...

Okumura-san I really appreciate your optimism. Optimism needed very much so.
Please understand its your leaders who are really messing Japan over...
The problem is they don't seem to care and are a failure. The fact that we Japanese can't choose our leaders is bad enough.

There are a chock full of problems that are still not solved and its just horrific for example
birth rate, recession, unemployment, aging population, oh man the list just goes on...

You think megarich moma's boy Hatoyama-san is our answer? No sorry I wish I could say yes. If he is he has yet to show this and yes he does have some very good ideas that just need to be materialized for sure!

Sir it's seriously time to see real change and action. Change for the better I mean for real! I want the brightest future for Japan and the world for sure!

PaxAmericana said...

Serious-minded people who work their butts off can ruin a country just as easily as lazy slackers. I wish Dick Cheney had spent more time hunting - and that DC switched to a three-day workweek.

I'm not so sure the PNP is incompatible, as I don't see any principles to argue over. Are there any? Limits on postal deposit insurance don't seem very significant. In today's Wall Street dominated world, financial infighting is very important, but still ...

But the real question for some of us is whether the DPJ could actually form an alliance with Komeito. Do you see that as working? And, is the rumor remotely true that Ozawa is fighting to tax religious groups? That seems suicidally brave.

Anonymous said...

Hatoyama's approval is at 36%.....
Time to say sayonara to another
bakatare and just move on!

People have seriously had enough of this b.s obviously.
It's time to either be the ant or the grasshopper! Win or lose
This is doggie dog competitive world now!
Hatoyama can't cut it then next!
We don't need this moma's boy moron anymore.
Japan move on, you need someone who really cares, who has guts of steel and who has intelligence not shallow brainless dimwits who obviously are a F grade failure! Get a grip!
It's time we work toward a better Japan, a better world and a better tomorrow!

Anonymous said...

Also only thing Hatoyama positives are some nice ideas, like the Asia co-prosperity thing! Materialize it make it happen! Otherwise he has no leadership ability and he is mo dame da hito!
He can't turn his good ideas into substance and reality! He's weak,
powerless, good b.s guy and unskilled.
The future is up to us!
Also education is key!

Jun Okumura said...

Okay, a very late, albeit paragraph-by-paragraph response:

Anonymous said...
Okumura-san I really appreciate your optimism. Optimism needed very much so.

You are obviously a practitioner of the art of irony.

Please understand its your leaders who are really messing Japan over...

The last twenty years have not been happy ones, and there’s plenty of blame to go around for everybody. If you are referring to the current DPJ and LDP leaderships, they look pretty bad to me as well. Let’s see what happens to the Hatoyama and by implication Ozawa at the end of the month of after the July election. Also, I want to see how the new parties shake out, in particular the Your Party. The parties that the local politicians are setting up with 2013 in mind also bear watching..

The problem is they don't seem to care and are a failure. The fact that we Japanese can't choose our leaders is bad enough.

I think that it’s more a matter of incompetence and incompatible policy and political goals. There’s no reason to believe that a presidential system would work better (or necessarily worse) than a parliamentary one.

There are a chock full of problems that are still not solved and its just horrific for example birth rate, recession, unemployment, aging population, oh man the list just goes on...

So true, and many of these problems are closely intertwined, so a piecemeal approach is unlikely to work.

You think megarich moma's boy Hatoyama-san is our answer? No sorry I wish I could say yes. If he is he has yet to show this and yes he does have some very good ideas that just need to be materialized for sure!

Well, he does use some pleasant words and phrases. Not many people would say that “fraternity” is bad, to name one. The problem with Hatoyama is that those words and phrases are just that; he seems to slap them on to whatever things float by his viewfinder. As for his policy goals, of course it would be nice if could get rid of the military bases in Okinawa. A world without nuclear weapons? Yes, of course, for most people. And the list goes on. But he appears to be clueless as far as planning and execution are concerned.
n e seems to have no idea of what they mean notion of what they mean one is opposed to

Sir it's seriously time to see real change and action. Change for the better I mean for real! I want the brightest future for Japan and the world for sure!

I’ll settle for coherence in policy-making and competence in execution.
Sunday, March 28, 2010 1:05:00 AM GMT+09:00

Jun Okumura said...

PaxAmericana said...
Serious-minded people who work their butts off can ruin a country just as easily as lazy slackers. I wish Dick Cheney had spent more time hunting - and that DC switched to a three-day workweek.

I agree that less is often more where government is concerned. But I’d like to repeat a point that I made elsewhere: The cabinet and subcabinet political team are, with a few prominent exceptions, competent, hardworking people. And people like Maehara and Edano would like to work their tails off precisely to make the government do less.

I'm not so sure the PNP is incompatible, as I don't see any principles to argue over. Are there any? Limits on postal deposit insurance don't seem very significant. In today's Wall Street dominated world, financial infighting is very important, but still ...

But shrinking Japan Post was arguably the most important element of the DPJ’s original proposal to transform the role of the government in the Japanese economy. More broadly, Kamei’s policy agenda, to the extent that it can be discerned, flows from an outdated, paternalistic outlook. Add his pronunciations on social issues and a nostalgia for an idealized Japan emerges. There are some DPJ politicians who share at least part of his worldview, but other than the toothless head of the National Public Safety Commission, I don’t see anyone in cabinet positions who fit that description.

But the real question for some of us is whether the DPJ could actually form an alliance with Komeito. Do you see that as working? And, is the rumor remotely true that Ozawa is fighting to tax religious groups? That seems suicidally brave.

They have been making goo-goo eyes at each other. Komeito’s ardor seems to have cooled for the moment—no opposition party wants to be publicly associated with the Hatozawa regime now—but I’m sure the courtship will resume in earnest after the July election.
Monday, March 29, 2010 1:31:00 AM GMT+09:00

Jun Okumura said...

Anonymous said...
Hatoyama's approval is at 36%.....Time to say sayonara to another bakatare and just move on!

Hey, that’s even worse than “loopy.” Naughty, naughty. Let’s see how the election turns out.

People have seriously had enough of this b.s obviously. It's time to either be the ant or the grasshopper! Win or lose This is doggie dog competitive world now! Hatoyama can't cut it then next! We don't need this moma's boy moron anymore. Japan move on, you need someone who really cares, who has guts of steel and who has intelligence not shallow brainless dimwits who obviously are a F grade failure! Get a grip! It's time we work toward a better Japan, a better world and a better tomorrow!

Will the DPJ be able to elect a new leadership before the election? It’s not a given. And it’s not just about Ozawa. Coups d’etat are rare. Remember, both Abe and Fukuda left voluntarily, and the LDP followed Aso meekly into defeat. It’s not just a Japanese phenomenon. Two names: Michael Steele and Gordon Brown.

Monday, March 29, 2010 10:18:00 AM GMT+09:00

Jun Okumura said...

Anonymous said...
Also only thing Hatoyama positives are some nice ideas, like the Asia co-prosperity thing! Materialize it make it happen! Otherwise he has no leadership ability and he is mo dame da hito!

The East Asia Community means different things to different people. I do not think that it is a meaningful policy goal in itself. I’d rather concentrate on the specific issues.

He can't turn his good ideas into substance and reality! He's weak, powerless, good b.s guy and unskilled. The future is up to us! Also education is key!

In Hatoyama’s defense, ideas, even specific, coherent ones, are difficult to turn into reality. Of course we didn’t conscript him for the job; he volunteered.

Monday, March 29, 2010 8:51:00 PM GMT+09:00

Anonymous said...

The Japanese I believe are the major cause of their own mess and problems basically. At least it seems in this way lately.
They need to really seriously fix their mountain of a mess.

Serious problems like low birth rate
Weak English skills
Corrupt politics
Unemployment rate
Aging population
To name a few---caused entirely by the Japanese.