Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Your Party: Eight Seats Minimum in the Upcoming Upper House Election with Significant Upside

Urban, well-schooled, and entrepreneurial, the 2010 Your Party Upper House candidates should easily score one prefectural seat—there’s another on the bubble—and seven proportional seats, mostly at the expense of the DPJ and LDP. Actually, I think that they will do better, since Your Party is the one new entry with a significant upside. (The Japan Communist Party and Komeito will benefit from the turnout, which should be lower than it was in the 2007 election.) Look carefully at the 7-9 May Yomiuri poll results and it becomes obvious that the 51% of the responders that did not show any voting preference is definitely going to lean away from the DPJ and LDP.

Your Party is the spiritual descendant of the Koizumi-Takenaka reform team. It even has a former Koizumi Kid in the 2010 Upper House candidate list. With at least nine Upper House seats after the election and five Lower House seats, it’s the one LDP spinout that can become a significant player in a major realignment process.


Mark said...

It occurred to me that I could post my reply online so that anyone who wanted to read it could. I have uploaded the document to Google. The link is...

For some reason, Google seems to be having a problem viewing the document, but if you click on download you can get the document. Jun's response in in the margins.

Mark said...

Incidentally, I don't have much to say in response to the comments you made. Frankly, I don't disagree too much with what you said.

But I was really struck by one of the comments you made. In my writing, I argued that, "It is important to choose the right facts to convey to the public, so they can better understand the world we live in."

You replied, "And I know exactly what the right facts are."

Well, I certainly don't claim to know exactly what the right facts are. But since you do, perhaps you can fill me in.

Based on what I have written, are there any facts which I should be aware of that I failed to mention? If so, could you please tell me what these facts are?

Jun Okumura said...


Well, I certainly don't claim to know exactly what the right facts are.

Does anyone? Then you shouldn't have used that formulation in constructing your argument...which was my point all along.