Sunday, July 25, 2010

Looking Back on My Pre-Election Thoughts

At least one of my predictions sort of came true: a brief post-election Diet session for purely housekeeping purposes. I say sort of because a couple of minor non-partisan bills submitted by Diet members (bills submitted by the cabinet are far more common and usually more substantial, particularly in their fiscal consequences) are likely to be adopted without going through the usual formalities. The reason for this is that an Upper House majority is difficult to muster on short notice in the aftermath of the election. (My apologies to Climate Morio, who put the question to me here for being so tardy in replying.) And yes, it is increasingly likely that there will be no coalition until the September DPJ election (and for some time after that only case-by-case, floating alliances). However, I’ve changed my mind slightly on Kan’s prospects of remaining in power in that situation. I now he’s more likely to prevail. I’m going over this point, and coalition/alliance prospects, in more detail in a memo that I’m producing for a paying customer. I’ll see if I’ll be able to publicly share at least part of that.

Good thing I avoided making an explicit, last-minute read on the outcome, instead wimping out by referring to media reports. Seriously, I should have paid more attention to the tabloids.


Climate Morio said...

Hey, i am glad to have gotten an answer one way or the other. Thank you very much. :)

Jun Okumura said...

Glad to be of help. And hey, Climate, if you want to really thank me, do something about this heat, okay? I mean, I've been nice to you, haven't I? I avoid air conditioning at home, I don't drive a car, and I've only used commercial flight once in the last five years. So could you be so kind as to, I don't know, put a cool micro-climate around my house maybe?

Think about it.