The Ebb and Flow of the Anti-Kan Forces

Some headlines from the online Yomiuiri:

23 April: “Diet Members Aligned with Ozawa to Step Up Efforts to ‘Depose Kan’ When New Week Begins (小沢系議員、週明けから「菅降ろし」本格化)”
26 April: “Prime Minister: ‘Must Be Candid in Admitting Loss’ in [Nationwide] Local Elections (統一選「率直に敗北と認めざるを得ない」…首相)”
27 April: “60 [Diet Members Show Up] at Study Group to ‘Depose Kan’…Heavy Ozawa Influence (民主「菅降ろし」勉強会に６０人…濃い小沢色)”
29 April: “[National Labor Union] Rengo Chairman Koga: ‘Ceaseless Conflict within DPJ Regrettable(連合・古賀会長「民主党の絶えぬ対立は遺憾」)”
01 May: “Will Refrain from Efforts to Depose Kan for the Time Being…Ozawa, Hatoyama Agree菅降ろし、当面控える…小沢・鳩山両氏が一致)”

In the meantime, on 29 April, the DPJ, LDP and Komeito—but no PNP, which fact being totally ignored in the MSM—come to an agreement on the first supplemental budget that allows the Kan administration to finance it mostly with “buried treasures” initially allocated in the FY2011 budget to subsidize the national pension fund. The reallocation as well as the child allowance and toll-free highways—two items in the DPJ manifesto that are being scaled back to finance the supplemental budget—and other expenditure items will be revisited when the second supplemental budget is formulated. This will be the basis on which the three parties will work to formulate and enact the FY2011 deficit bond authorization bill.

The MSM is still taking at face value the LDP and Komeito’s claim that they want Kan out. But I think that my assessment in my previous post (29 April) makes more sense in the light of this sequence of events. Note also that Ozawa’s bark as passed along by mostly anonymous associates and illustrated by the poor attendance at his anti-Kan rally is proving to be worse than his bite.