Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Why Did the Chinese Authorities Let the Hong Kong Authorities…

…let the Hong Kong boat set out for the Senkaku Islands?

The most likely scenario in my view is one where the Hong Kong vessel plays a cat-and-mouse with the Japanese Coast Guard around the territorial limits of the Islands, then goes back unharmed but without actually making a landing. This is unfortunate for the Chinese authorities because it gives the Japanese authorities a chance to effectively exercise sovereign powers over the Islands. Under another, less likely scenario, the Hong Kong vessel makes an improbable landing, whereupon the vessel and its proprietors are immediately apprehended—we assume that they really are political activists and not Chinese fishermen, who will not hesitate to kill if need be—transported to the Naha Coast Guard office as per the usual catch-and-release program for simple illegal entry violators. This is unfortunate for the Chinese authorities because it also gives the Japanese authorities a chance to effectively exercise sovereign powers over the Islands.

A problem arises when there is an incident involving a physical altercation. We assume that they really are political activists and not Chinese fishermen, who will not hesitate to kill if need be, but accidents happen. It’s simple when only the Hong Kong vessel or its occupants are harmed, because the result is merely a variant of one of the first two scenarios, depending on whether or not they actually make landfall. It is when harm befalls the Japanese Coast Guard, its ship or personnel, that things become interesting. In the September 2010 incident involving a Chinese fishing boat, the Kan administration wound up losing significant political face when it delivered the captain and the boat to the Chinese side before the public prosecutors pressed charges. But this time, the Japanese authorities will be up against, if I’m not mistaken, the Hong Kong Government, an administration with priorities and leverage that are very much unlike those of the Beijing Government. The Noda administration will find it much easier to face down its opponent than the Kan administration did two years ago. Again, this is also unfortunate for the Chinese authorities because it also gives the Japanese authorities a chance to effectively exercise sovereign powers over the Islands.

I think that it boils down to this: If you have possession, you don’t want to give the other side reason to contest it (think South Korea and its Dokto); if you don’t, then you don’t want to give the other side the opportunity to exercise sovereign powers. I think that the Chinese authorities miscalculated.

ADD: Arrested! Okay, let’s see how this plays out. Remember, the cost of backing down is huge for the Noda administration, and the cost of standing firm is much less than it was for the KanADD: Arrested! Okay, let’s see how this plays out. Remember, the cost of backing down is huge for the Noda administration, and the cost of standing firm is much less than it was for the Kan administration in the 2010 incident. Moreover, Noda is ideologically less inclined to bend over.

ADD 2.0: It was the Okinawa Police (nice touch), most surely riding on the Coast Guard vessels, who made the arrests. And in retrospect, it made much more sense to let them land, then make the arrest, since that was much safer than trying to repel the Hong Kong vessel offshore. In any case, the protest only reinforced the sense of Japanese control over the Islands. When you think about it, that’s almost always the case. Sea Shepherd, Anonymous, they all reinforce the notion of sovereignty even as they challenge it. If I were the Chinese authorities, I would certainly discourage these private protests against Japan’s exercise of its sovereign powers over these islands. administration in the 2010 incident. Moreover, Noda is ideologically less inclined to bend over.

3 comments:

Mark said...

I was going to do my gaiatsu thing today. My government was busy torturing me last night. That put me in a bad mood. I was all ready to write you a nasty note…but then I read this WikiLeaks cable on China.

http://cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=07SHANGHAI549

And it occurred to me that my government was probably torturing me so I would right a nasty note to you. That way you would have an excuse to delete it. So, regrettably, this comment will refrain from insults. I’ll save the insults for a day when the WikiLeaks cable isn’t so good.

Did you know that Wen Jiabao is corrupt? Not only that, but apparently his two kids are really corrupt. It turns out that corruption is not such a great quality for a leader. It leaves you vulnerable to attack. It certainly has left Wen vulnerable to attack. Did I mention that this is how intelligence agencies control their stooges? All they need to do is find the most corrupt moron out there, install them as leader, and threaten to take them down whenever they don’t do what you want them to do.

The cable also had some interesting information about Hu Jintao. In his early years as leader, Hu refrained from displaying leadership. Instead, he often consulted with Jiang Zemin. But this began to change after Hu smashed Chen Liangyu (who was a prominent person associated with Jiang). From there, Hu went on to smash Li Zhaoxing, another person aligned with Jiang. Hu even went after Chen Liangyu’s son. Hu found him in either Australia or Malaysia (one observer said the son was found in Australia, others say Malaysia. I wonder if Australia is covering up that they were sheltering a criminal and that is why they denied that he was in Australia).

Anyways, the son of Chen Liangyu was close to the Jiang family. As such, he has all sorts of corruption info on Jiang Miankang, the son of Jiang Zemin. Once he fell into the arms of Chinese prosecutors, he became more than happy to share that information with those prosecutors. In the future, Hu Jintao will use this information to control Jiang Zemin. If Jiang refuses to bow down before Hu on any policy issue, Hu will smash his son. The cable mentioned that Hu now regrets having waited so long to assert himself. Who knew that smashing your political rivals based on a CIA mentality would be so much fun for Hu? What I want to know is, where do western intelligence agencies find guys like Hu and Jiang anyways?

In any event, one observer felt that Hu had become so powerful that he could now pass his Harmonious Society idea at the Party Congress. The Scientific Development Concept would become the subordinate theme. The article goes on to say that Hu had a particularly close relationship with America. I get the feeling that America wanted him to pass this Harmonious Society idea (which is apparently a code word for income redistribution). I’m not exactly sure what the Scientific Development Concept is a code word for. Perhaps it’s a code word for “let the provinces do whatever they please.” I don’t think western intelligence agencies like this concept.

The observer claimed that Hu had a near perfect record on foreign policy and that he was doing particularly well with Japan. This cable was written in 2007. I wonder what this brilliant observer thinks of Hu’s foreign policy now (particularly his policy with respect to Japan)?

BTW, it looks like I’m going to come into conflict with the SSJ Forum moderator…again. It looks like he will refuse to post my comment (reprinted below).

Mark said...

I have a bunch of questions that I would like answered. I thought that perhaps the SSJ Forum could help me answer them.

I’ve been looking for details on the dollar / yen exchange rate. I want to know what the exchange rate was for every day. I can easily find the exchange rates since the rate was set at 360 yen per dollar. But I have been unable to find the daily exchange rates before that. If anyone knows of a book or a website that contains this information, I would appreciate being pointed in the right direction.

I have some other questions too…

Does anyone know of any website (or book) which contains an English translation of the exhibits at the Yushukan?

Does anyone know of a good book on the Opium Wars that bashes Britain?

While doing research into the comfort women issue, I found this WikiLeaks cable:

http://www.cablegatesearch.net/cable.php?id=07BEIJING1841

This cable was written in March 2007, when the comfort woman controversy was raging. The cable says that China did not want to raise a fuss over the comfort women issue because they wanted to prevent certain other historical issues from resurfacing. The cable does not mention what these issues are. Does anyone know what issues they are referring to?

After looking into the comfort women issue for a while, it seemed to me that much of the controversy had to do with the private contractors which were involved in the acquisition of comfort women. Does anyone know of any articles / books / websites that talk about these private contractors?

In 2011, the Financial Times wrote an article called “The feeble monster.”

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e383a7f2-3f91-11e0-a1ba-00144feabdc0.html#axzz23T6CmfZJ

In that article, the Times implored Europe to “start acting like a responsible force in world affairs, not a many-headed monster.”

I was wondering if there were any books / articles / websites that explained this “many-headed monster” phenomenon. For example, I have a theory that in many wars (like the War of 1812, World War I, and World War II), while European countries fought each other and appeared to be on opposite sides, in fact they were working together. Does anyone know of any material that has been written on this subject?

Note to everyone: The longer the truth is hidden from the public, the higher everyone’s indemnity will be IYKWIAS.

In connection with that, towards the end of 2011, I believe Nobuteru Ishihara said that if no progress was made on the Futenma issue, the alliance between Japan and America would be ripped to shreds by next fall. Does anyone have a reference for that quote?

I have a question for Paul Midford. A year ago you said “there is much about US policy and presence in Okinawa that can and should be criticized…”

What specifically do you think should be criticized?

And finally, if anyone knows anything about what has been happening to me, you are obligated to tell me.

Mark said...

If you could convince the moderator to post my comment, I would appreciate it. You may appreciate it too, as that would prevent an ugly showdown from happening.