As doomsayers have changed their sell on
Abenomics from it’s not going to work to it’s not really working to it’s not
working that much all thing considered, I began to wonder, how much have we
sucked, all things considered, anyway? The very first numbers that I looked at
surprised me. I’m not an economist, so I’m putting them out there, just in case
anyone is interested.
************
How
poorly has the Japanese economy doing this century, say, relative to the rest
of the G7? (Remember those countries?) Depends. The following chart shows the quotient
of GDP in national currencies at constant prices, with 2013 and 2000 figures as
dividend and divisor. It puts Canada ahead of the pack and the United States second,
with Japan a disappointing sixth.
|
Canada
|
1.277962
|
|
|
United
States
|
1.234331
|
|
|
United
Kingdom
|
1.212253
|
|
|
Germany
|
1.15034
|
|
|
France
|
1.135103
|
|
|
Japan
|
1.111628
|
|
|
Italy
|
1.001247
|
|
|
International
Monetary Fund,
World
Economic Outlook
Database, April 2013
|
||
Does this mean that we suck, if not nearly
as much as Italy? Not necessarily. The following chart using the same database shows the quotient of per capita GDP in national currencies at
constant prices, with 2013 and 2000 figures as dividend and divisor. Italy
still sucks, but the rest of them are bunched more closely together. And Japan
has jumped to fourth place, leapfrogging France and the United States, just behind now third-place Canada.
|
Germany
|
1.156469
|
|
United
Kingdom
|
1.119617
|
|
Canada
|
1.11236
|
|
Japan
|
1.107157
|
|
United
States
|
1.099738
|
|
France
|
1.048757
|
|
Italy
|
0.934377
|
Many things could be happening between 2012,
when the GDP estimates were put together, and the end of the year, and middle-of-the-pack,
0.8% per capita growth per year isn’t anything to crow about. And the unconventional
fossil fuel revolution will give the US economy a leg up on the rest of the G7
(while putting the eight and last-wheel Russia in a conundrum). Still, for now,
I can say, “It could have been worse, I could have been in America all this
time,” if barely? Or am I missing something so very, very obvious?
1 comment:
Jun,
A couple issues I have with your comments:
1)2013 is just estimates; the last year for which we have hard data for all countries in 2011
2)The starting year makes a huge difference:
If we start in 1991, the last year of the bubble-era growth, then Japan's per capita GDP grew 0.6% per year, bit less than half the 1.3% average for the other six
If we start at 1997, a post-bubble peak, Japan grew an average of 0.4% per year, just one-third of the 1.2% average for the other six.
If we start at 2002, the bottom of the 1997-2002 stagnation, then Japan grew 0.6% per year, exactly the same as the average of the other six. It's not that Japan did any better, it's that the others, in your words, "sucked a lot more."
Richard Katz
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