20131217Going Out on a Limb on North Korea
1. Do not expect more purges going forward.
Kim Jong Un killed the snake and its capos. If Kim hasn’t shot you by now, you’re safe. As proof, other Chang song Taek associates (presumed) are resurfacing. The small fry will fall in line, as always.
2. The military comes out ahead.
Is Kim pulling the military, or is the military pushing Kim? Either way, the military is solidly behind Kim Jong Un on this one. Look, all the casualties have been on the civilian side.
3. There will be no “provocations.”
No need. See 2. Besides, North Korean did enough to annoy China.
4. Kim is safe for now.
See 2. Besides, I don’t think that the military wants to own it.
5. No one can embarrass analysts going out on a limb like the North Koreans
Let’s face it, it’s just a huge guessing game. The one sure thing is that volatility and uncertainty are up.
I guess that’s what I was trying to say.