This
is a crucial week in the wars in Ukraine and Iraq, the two easily most
compelling geopolitical stories of the year—but not of the decade, which belongs
to the rise of China.
First,
Ukraine. The pro-Russia separatists are doing badly, holding on to Donetsk and
Luhansk for their dear lives. Pretty soon, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko
is calling President Putin, who will soon have to bet raise, or fold. Now, I,
like everyone with any interest in this matter, have my own set of plausible
outcomes in their order of likelihood. I won’t inflict my thoughts about that on
you since my understanding of the region is largely derivative. However, I
noticed a detail in the news that appears to be a crucial piece of the answer
to the question: How did the rag-tag, poorly-equipped Ukraine military grow a
spine and then some? I mean, it was just a few months ago that they’d caved in
Crimea, and proceeded to yield to the pro-Russia separatists elsewhere in
southeast Ukraine without putting up a fight of any kind. Did air cover turn
the trick? Maybe replacing local conscripts with soldiers from the west really
helped. Is Porochenko actually Tony Stark after a facelift? Perhaps all of
these things helped, but there was no way to sure, since the media was not
giving me any clues. But then, NYT provided
a great hint in “Ukraine
Strategy Bets on Restraint by Russia” (9 Aug. 2014), in which Andrew E.
Kramer writes:
“The
fighting for Donetsk has taken on a lethal pattern: The regular army bombards
separatist positions from afar, followed by chaotic, violent assaults by some
of the half-dozen or so paramilitary groups surrounding Donetsk who are willing
to plunge into urban combat.”
The
Ukrainian military didn’t get any stronger, they just called in their own paramilitary.
This
may have some immediate consequences, for Kramer goes on to say:
“Officials
in Kiev say the militias and the army coordinate their actions, but the
militias, which count about 7,000 fighters, are angry and, at times,
uncontrollable. One known as Azov, which took over the village of Marinka,
flies a neo-Nazi symbol resembling a Swastika as its flag.
“In
pressing their advance, the fighters took their orders from a local army
commander, rather than from Kiev. In the video of the attack, no restraint was
evident. Gesturing toward a suspected pro-Russian position, one soldier
screamed, ‘The bastards are right there!’ Then he opened fire.”
The
paramilitary harbors potential for battlefield atrocities depending on the severity
of the endgame, assuming there is one. But it could be of more than passing
importance regardless of the outcome or the process in getting there, for it
will have proven itself to be by far the most powerful group man-for-man of
fighters in the land. What ambitious politician would not want it to have his/her
back in the post-conflict political landscape—assuming that it cannot be easily
disbanded, once the hurly-burly is done? It is likely that a disproportionate
number of these fighters owe their loyalty to the more radical elements in the
Maidan takeover that wound up with Yanukovich absconding the country, elements
who will be making demands for a place in the post-conflict political landscape
that Porochenko and the rest of the mainstream politicians will ignore at their
peril.
Outlook?
Somewhere between the Taliban and the French resistance.
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