1. The LDP relies more on the local political establishment than the DPJ does, so its members should be more vulnerable to the pressure local politicians are putting on them to reinstate the gasoline tax surcharge. Remember, the Post Office privatization rebels crossed party lines on behalf of a key player in their electoral political machines.
2. The hold that LDP factions continue to have on their members is somewhat mystifying, but there you are. What is, is. Needless to say, it is much harder to tear someone away from a collaborative group that meets regularly to reinforce their mutual commitment. Independents lack that layer of protection and should be correspondingly more vulnerable to poaching. Love, war, politics － it’s always the same.
3. Failure to extend the surcharge by a supermajority revote will likely shatter the LDP*. The stakes are much bigger for it than it is for the DPJ. They’re more likely to
4. At least none of the LDP Representatives have come out openly against reinstatement. Contrast that with the DPJ, where Yasuhiro Ōe openly defied the party leadership and claimed to have a significant number of fellow DPJ Diet members’ signatures on a petition. And look at what the DPJ is meting out as punishment. If you vote against the party line, you get a one-month suspension; if you can’t stand even that, all you have to do to avoid it is to abstain, or absent yourself. (See also point 3, last sentence.)
Is MTC claiming that LDP politicians are dumber than DPJ politicians? Or that I’m doing so? Maybe he’s right, but I’m sure they know what their support base is. As I said, the results will be in. Stay tuned.
* ADD: Of course they could always back off a revote to avoid a showdown. But that would leach the life out of the LDP. I don’t see how the party leadership can let that happen.