I can’t see more than another handful or two—ceiling ten?—of DPJ members of the House of Representatives jumping ship between now and the election, all of them professing opposition to TPP. (What else?). Where are they going to go? The Third force movements are now lining up behind TPP (Your Party: “Are you stupid or what?” Hashimoto: “Are you wimps or what?” Ishihara: “America, Schmerica, I need to cut a deal with Hashimoto.” Kawamura: “How high, sir?”), and they may not want to be seen as some kind of refugee boats. Post-dissolution defectors do not want to join the Ozawa team, even if his acquittal has been upheld on appeal; those people will be pretty toxic as far as media coverage is concerned. (Okay, some of them could join up anyway. Still, I think that that ship left a long time ago and I don’t think rats can swim that far.) And cobbling together a party or two of five just so they can take out zombie insurance? Good luck. Note that Eriko Fukuda had a place to land, the Green Wind and its five members.
Maybe I’m just projecting my hopes and fears; it’s just that the spectacle of HORs scrambling to keep their heads above water reminds me of how they dealt with rats when I was a small, very small child. And that’s a very depressing thought. In any case, this is very hunchy, but I needed to make the call so I’d have something to measure the actual turn of events against.