Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Is Globalization Oversold? For Now, Yes, Says Ian Bremmer

Ian Bremmer, head of Eurasia Group and author of J-Curve, is issuing a warning to unconditional disciples of the globalization mantra, identifying countercurrents in Russia, China and Europe/USA that lead him, in his own words to "at this point…suspect that [globalization] is now oversold." It means that the J-Curve for the world in general has taken a downward shift towards instability. There's also the matter of movement along the J-Curve as nations adapt to changing circumstances. In fact, you could argue that the whole world is moving to the left (less openness) on the curve.

Then there's the little matter that nations on the left-hand side of the J-Curve sit on the bulk of the world's oil and natural gas, and things don't look like they are getting much better in this respect. The globalization of the Oil Curse, if you will.

Look for an Ian Bremmer op-ed somewhere down the line, whose title I will not reveal for fear of my life, but I do feel…… yes, yes, Yes! A poem…

Elegy for a Lexus

"The World's on Fire," cried Amy Chua,
When proles brought down the sledge;
"The World IS Flat!" Tom Friedman yelled,
As the ship dropped off the edge.

While the economics of globalization
Is ably argued by Dr. Bhagwati,
Ian Bremmer is going to tell us
That the J-Curve has slipped somewhati.

Disclosure: Most of the people who read this blog, i.e. my friends, know that I have a relationship with Eurasia Group.

Which is not the case with me as regards Yoshihisa Komori and the Sankei Group, for those of you who might suspect that I am in cahoots with those conservative (NTTAWWT) institutions. It is true that I had a cow with NBR Japan Forum, but it was, to use a sports metaphor, a disagreement over a call (over which I appealed to higher authorities, i.e. you), whereas Mr. Komori used the incident to raise doubts over the umpire crew, indeed the league itself.

FOOTNOTE: (move-along-the-J-Curve version)
We've slipped on the J-Curve somewhati.

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