If you look at comments from the five
candidates for the LDP presidency, Shigeru Ishiba, a strong candidate rumored to
be favored by the party rank-and-file, has stated that the deficit bond
authorization bill should not be used as a political tool, which has been generally
interpreted as the expression of an intent not to hold it hostage for a snap
election. The other candidates are also making offers of potential support, explicitly
contingent, of course, on concessions, with some of them calling for a trillion
or more in specific savings in the FY2012 budget.
So it’s negotiable. Will Prime Minister Noda
make what are likely to be massive budget cuts, concessions that will give his
DPJ opponents further ammunition? And is it worth enduring another regular Diet
session next year with an already diminished lower house majority and upper
house plurality? But then, think of the alternative, as they say.
And that is why I am becoming less sure
about the early snap election.
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