If you look at comments from the five candidates for the LDP presidency, Shigeru Ishiba, a strong candidate rumored to be favored by the party rank-and-file, has stated that the deficit bond authorization bill should not be used as a political tool, which has been generally interpreted as the expression of an intent not to hold it hostage for a snap election. The other candidates are also making offers of potential support, explicitly contingent, of course, on concessions, with some of them calling for a trillion or more in specific savings in the FY2012 budget.
So it’s negotiable. Will Prime Minister Noda make what are likely to be massive budget cuts, concessions that will give his DPJ opponents further ammunition? And is it worth enduring another regular Diet session next year with an already diminished lower house majority and upper house plurality? But then, think of the alternative, as they say.
And that is why I am becoming less sure about the early snap election.