Morihiro
Hosokawa, the 75 year-old former prime minister, is reportedly looking to run
for Tokyo governor to oppose nuclear power and will meet another former prime
minister, Junichiro Koizumi, tomorrow to seek his endorsement. Hosokawa needs
Koizumi’s endorsement because he lost most of his political credibility when he
resigned as prime minister after only nine months in office rather than face
questions about 100 million yen that he secretly received from a corporation in
a heavily regulated industry as he was launching his political career. Koizumi
by contrast resigned at the peak of his popularity after five years, a stark contrast
to most of the other post-WW II prime ministers, particularly the
one-year-and-out sextet that followed him. Hosokawa hopes that Koizumi will
support him because they both oppose nuclear power. My call is that Hosokawa
will not have to run without Koizumi’s formal endorsement. In fact, if there
were a way to place bets on tomorrow’s outcome, I would put some of my money on
Hosokawa declining to run after all, since I seem to be the only one that is
considering that possibility and could get unbelievably long odds on that
outcome. Here’s why.
They
both got their start in the LDP but enjoyed reputations as iconoclasts. However,
Hosokawa really did try to put an end to LDP rule and briefly did, while
Koizumi came to power claiming that he would bust up the LDP but wound up
entrenching it in power. Moreover, Hosokawa entered and exited politics all
alone, opposed in his choice of career by his ex-noble father and none of his own
children following in his footsteps while Koizumi, a third-generation Diet member
bequeathed his seat to his son, who has easily lapped his political-generational
cohorts in the chase for the LDP’s future leadership. Hosokawa was for better
or worse the ultimate amateur; Koizumi was the consummate pro. And that LDP will
be supporting a different candidate. Why would Koizumi put the interests of the
LDP at stake by campaigning for Hosokawa?
Note
also that Hosokawa opposes nuclear power while Koizumi’s main complaint is that
he sees no prospects of finding a site for the final disposition of the nuclear
waste. Hosokawa makes an environmental argument, whereas Koizumi remains the
consummate political animal. It is hard to imagine tomorrow’s meeting producing
a true meeting of minds.
The
media is going easy on Hosokawa at least in part because they want to encourage
him to run. The media wants a race and with Hosokawa, they will have a race, between
two high-profile candidates at that. But what will happen once Hosokawa
officially declares? It will be open season on his public record, that’s what.
Hosokawa bungled the rollout of the public debate on a consumption tax hike, seriously
depleting his political capital; he suffered a fatal blow when he failed to
account for the 100 million yen cash transfer and resigned instead. The analogy
with now ex-governor Inose’s 50 million yen “loan” from yet another donor in a heavily
regulated industry will be too delicious for the media to pass up. Moreover, the
disgraced Inose is likely to remain in the spotlight throughout the gubernatorial
campaign as the suspect in a political financing irregularity probe (at best)
and a bribery case (at worst).
Finally,
Hosokawa is trying to turn the gubernatorial race into a referendum on nuclear
power. Will a plurality of Tokyo voters take a flier on a 75 year-old carpetbagger
just to express their displeasure about nuclear power? Stranger things have
happened, but still.
I
just don’t see the stars lining up for a Koizumi endorsement. Nor victory for
Hosokawa.
Add
(20140113): Woke up this morning, decided I wouldn’t put money on Hosokawa not running
after all, even with the great odds that I could get.
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