Yoichi
Masuzoe is the frontrunner for now. Morihiro Hosokawa, his main rival, has
stumbled badly before reaching the gate by postponing the announcement of his
policy platform initially scheduled for today (Jan. 17) to “Monday or later
next week” in order to figure out a way to stop his nuclear power referendum
campaign from turning into a two-issue one because of his earlier comments
urging the Abe administration to give up hosting the highly popular 2020 Tokyo
Olympics.* He probably still has a fighting chance of winning over a plurality
of the Tokyo vote if Masuzoe makes a major gaffe or two and a third, hardline
anti-nuclear candidate, Kenji Utsunomiya, opts out.** There is a fourth,
perennial fringe candidate that the media always mention along with the other
three because of his clown/celebrity status as the self-proclaimed inventor of
the floppy disk and other gadgets useful or fanciful.
What
do they have in common? Well, first, they are old…like the two governors that
came before the eventual winner. Masuzoe is 65, the age at which people become
eligible to collect under the Japanese public pension system. He also happens
to be the youngest of the four. His immediate predecessor, Naoki Inose, was 67
when he resigned under disgrace after bare a year in office. Inose in turn had succeeded
Shintaro Ishihara, who was 66 when he assumed office and 80 when he resigned to
return to national politics.
But
second, on what most people will consider a more positive note, none of the
four or the two previous governors (or any other predecessors that come to
mind) inherited Tokyo fiefdoms to launch their political careers. They areself-made
men, at least in the political world.
These
two points are related and, in my view, reflect Japanese politics and more
broadly society. I’ll try to remember to come back to this later.
*
He also appears to be buying time to search for a way to avoid disclosing
details about the money scandal that brought his administration down after less
than nine months. This is looking increasing like the most ill-prepared
political campaign by a candidate of substance in recent memory.
**
Increasingly unlikely, given Hosokawa’s missteps.
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