Ozawa’s Power Move Likely to Force Few Pre-election LDP Defections

Regarding cooperation in the [upcoming Lower House] election with LDP forces showing movement toward leaving the party or political realignment, Mr. Ozawa laid out as conditions that [they must ]“first leave the [LDP] and must be people with whom we can share the same political philosophy and political stance”. DPJ leaders are taking the position that “even in an electoral districts where we already have a candidate, official or unofficial, there can be a switch if the LDP candidate [who has defected] has a greater chance of being elected”.

That’s an excerpt from a 12 January Yomiuri report. But media joytoy and LDP renegade Yoshimi Watanabe’s pending defection (13 January according to news reports) notwithstanding, the battle lines have hardened over the last week or so. The short-term realignment in my view will be post-election, not pre-, and relatively minor. (During the weekend, I worked on a post that gave my reasons why. I haven’t been able to put in the time to do it to my satisfaction. Tomorrow, maybe.)

So, this latest, typically Ozawa ploy should have little effect. In the meantime, people who have put their careers on hold (or in some cases must have left their day job) and dipped into their savings (or even gone into debt) to stand for the DPJ must be going into WTF mode. That’s another reason why the DPJ and Ozawa bandwagon fails to gain momentum (in the just-released Yomiuri and Sankei-FNN polls) even as the Aso-LDP ship continues its relentless slide down the political drain.