The other day, I talked to some people who are intimately involved with but not of the LDP. This and other conversations only confirm what we’ve been seeing in the mainstream media (and the tabloids) in recent months: Aso has been an unmitigated disaster, and the LDP is in total disarray. I’ve also heard from people associated with the LDP/DPJ world speculating about a Communist surge in the 12 July Tokyo Prefectural Assembly election, or even personally voting, just maybe just voting, for the JCP.
The LDP is set to lose, in Tokyo as well as the national election, but the DPJ fails to inspire while the Socialists aka Social Democrats, long dead as the go-to protest party, has barely enough life to beg for a seat at the upcoming DPJ feast (faintly echoing the Socialists’ unholy coalition with the LDP that spawned the ill-fated Murayama Administration and destroyed the Socialists for most practical purposes). And I keep coming across anecdotal evidence that favors the JCP.
I can’t imagine the JCP coming in ahead of the Komeito in Tokyo or nationally. Still, it’s positioning itself to be the only place to go if you want to use your protest vote instead of sitting this year out—and there are an awful lot of undecided floaters still out there. If the floater do decide to go to the voting stations, chances are, they’ll end up denying a working majority to both coalitions…in Tokyo and across the nation. For that alone, the Sunday Tokyo election is worth watching.
Mark, I’ll try to get back to you over the weekend.