Monday, July 13, 2009
Asahi Superimposes the Tokyo Results onto the Lower House Election—Not so Fast
Asahi makes an attempt to translate the results of the Tokyo’s Prefectural Assembly election to its single-member districts (SMDs) in the Lower House of the national Diet*. According to the report, the DPJ comes out ahead in 24 out of the 25 SMDs, and all 25 if you include the successful Networks candidate—which as I’ve noted before supports the DPJ in national elections—that the DPJ supported in the remaining one. So does that mean that the DPJ will sweep the board come 30 August? (Which reminds me, happy birthday CAO.)
Not so fast. If you are going to count the Network seat as a DPJ gimmie, then the LDP will surely want to add the Komeito votes in the national tally. The LDP and Komeito will put up only one candidate in each of the 300 SMD elections nationwide between the two. The LDP-Komeito vote combined take would beat the DPJ in 7 out of 15 seats in the Tokyo SMDS included in the 3-seat-and-up multi-member districts that Komeito did contest. That’s not really fair either. You have to add to the DPJ tally the Network votes—as well as a portion of the Communist vote in the SMDs where the JCP will not put up candidates. No matter. My point is that counting the Network seat without taking into account the Kometo vote is wishfulAsahi thinking.
* I’ve reproduced the relevant Asahi image at the top since Asahi usually takes its material off-line very quickly. Asahi, like most of the Japanese mass media, essentially hates the Internet.