Here's a
related point that came to mind while writing a response to an email regarding
Abe's prospects.
It is easy to
forget, also, that 1) the other side of assuming that Abe is in good health now
is that all the signs in 2007 that he intended to carry on but had to resign
for health reasons were not some aimless, ill-designed pretext, 2) Fukuda
willingly relinquished the office even though his poll numbers had been on a
steady if unspectacular rise in the belief that Aso would be better equipped to
fight an election campaign, and 3) Aso spent a year building a legacy instead
of homing in on the election. With good health, Abe could easily have hung on
at least until the next LDP leadership election, and we would be dealing with a
very different LDP narrative.
I’m not ready to give up the search for a common thread and I’m aware that
I have a strong bias for “small” explanations, but I am definitely less convinced
that we’re stuck in a Groundhog Day
remake.
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