Yomiuri
Shimbun (paid subscription wall) has run one of
its massive pre-election polls (Dec. 4-5, 101,000 eligible voters) and
precinct-by-precinct surveys and says that the LDP is on its way to a decisive
simple majority in the House of Representatives. If that holds true to December
16, when the Japanese voters go to the polls, then my earlier assessment will
be vindicated. The Asahi report (likewise) says the
same thing, The Sankei survey is more modestly
headlined, forecasting an LDP-Komeito majority, but the actual numbers, again,
say that the LDP will win a majority on its own.
That said, the LDP-Komeito coalition needs
320 seats for a supermajority to override a House of Councillors veto. Is that possible?
Komeito should max out at 30, 31 if the LDP really busts out in the regional
proportional district (RPD) vote and helps one more Komeito RDP candidate in the
process. And Kunio Hatoyama, the independent single member district (SMD)
candidate who should be readmitted to rejoin the LDP after the election, may
pull out a victory. And even in this best-case scenario, the LDP needs 289
seats to make a supermajority coalition.
That’s literally incredible. Collaboration
with the DPJ on the social security and tax reform and a case-by-case,
collaborator-by-collaborator approach to legislation by necessity remains the
most likely post-election outlook.
8 comments:
As a self-plug I have been saying this for a while too ;-) This is despite many Western sources still parroting the line that the LDP-Komeito "is unlikely to win a majority in the upcoming election" or some variation.
Hi, Corey. Will you also agree that Sunfrecce Hiroshima will drop kick Auckland City butt all the way back to New Zealand?
Let us know when you're coming to town, will you? There are people who will want to hear you out.
I am almost certain they will. We have a good professional time (singular) here in NZ, but it is not Auckland City ;-) Will certainly let everyone know next time I am in town...I think this is the longest I have been away from Japan in 8 years.
professional team, that should have been. A professional time suggests other nuances.
professional team, that should have been. A professional time suggests other nuances.
Okumura-san,
What is the expected participation rate according to that Yomiuri poll? And secondly, how many undecided voters?
I personally suspect a low participation rate (from what I hear around here), which would certainly benefit the LDP.
BTW - the Kyodo survey, according to Japan Times, has 56% undecided.
Philippe:
“What is the expected participation rate according to that Yomiuri poll? And secondly, how many undecided voters?”
The expected participation rate in the Yomiuri poll: 66% absolutely, 27% likely, which at first glance seems absurdly high until you take the 59% response rate for the 1808 households in which the presence of an eligible voter was confirmed. Of the responders, 32% were undecided while 4% refused to give an answer.
“I personally suspect a low participation rate (from what I hear around here), which would certainly benefit the LDP.”
Yes, and yes, though the weather is always a potentially important factor.
“BTW - the Kyodo survey, according to Japan Times, has 56% undecided.”
That’s extraordinarily high. FYI Asahi has the undecided/refuse to answer total at 41%.
Cory:
Auckland City, in fact, put up a good fight, bowing out at 0-1. It's actually a dangerous team. In 2009, it beat the UAE host team in the first round and the African team in the fifth place match.
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