Thursday, December 06, 2012

Mainstream Media Calling a Liberal Democratic Party Majority for the House of Representatives Election


Yomiuri Shimbun (paid subscription wall) has run one of its massive pre-election polls (Dec. 4-5, 101,000 eligible voters) and precinct-by-precinct surveys and says that the LDP is on its way to a decisive simple majority in the House of Representatives. If that holds true to December 16, when the Japanese voters go to the polls, then my earlier assessment will be vindicated. The Asahi report (likewise) says the same thing, The Sankei survey is more modestly headlined, forecasting an LDP-Komeito majority, but the actual numbers, again, say that the LDP will win a majority on its own.

That said, the LDP-Komeito coalition needs 320 seats for a supermajority to override a House of Councillors veto. Is that possible? Komeito should max out at 30, 31 if the LDP really busts out in the regional proportional district (RPD) vote and helps one more Komeito RDP candidate in the process. And Kunio Hatoyama, the independent single member district (SMD) candidate who should be readmitted to rejoin the LDP after the election, may pull out a victory. And even in this best-case scenario, the LDP needs 289 seats to make a supermajority coalition.

That’s literally incredible. Collaboration with the DPJ on the social security and tax reform and a case-by-case, collaborator-by-collaborator approach to legislation by necessity remains the most likely post-election outlook.

8 comments:

sigma1 said...

As a self-plug I have been saying this for a while too ;-) This is despite many Western sources still parroting the line that the LDP-Komeito "is unlikely to win a majority in the upcoming election" or some variation.

Jun Okumura said...

Hi, Corey. Will you also agree that Sunfrecce Hiroshima will drop kick Auckland City butt all the way back to New Zealand?

Let us know when you're coming to town, will you? There are people who will want to hear you out.

sigma1 said...

I am almost certain they will. We have a good professional time (singular) here in NZ, but it is not Auckland City ;-) Will certainly let everyone know next time I am in town...I think this is the longest I have been away from Japan in 8 years.

sigma1 said...

professional team, that should have been. A professional time suggests other nuances.

sigma1 said...

professional team, that should have been. A professional time suggests other nuances.

Philippe said...

Okumura-san,

What is the expected participation rate according to that Yomiuri poll? And secondly, how many undecided voters?

I personally suspect a low participation rate (from what I hear around here), which would certainly benefit the LDP.

BTW - the Kyodo survey, according to Japan Times, has 56% undecided.

Jun Okumura said...

Philippe:

“What is the expected participation rate according to that Yomiuri poll? And secondly, how many undecided voters?”

The expected participation rate in the Yomiuri poll: 66% absolutely, 27% likely, which at first glance seems absurdly high until you take the 59% response rate for the 1808 households in which the presence of an eligible voter was confirmed. Of the responders, 32% were undecided while 4% refused to give an answer.

“I personally suspect a low participation rate (from what I hear around here), which would certainly benefit the LDP.”

Yes, and yes, though the weather is always a potentially important factor.

“BTW - the Kyodo survey, according to Japan Times, has 56% undecided.”

That’s extraordinarily high. FYI Asahi has the undecided/refuse to answer total at 41%.

Jun Okumura said...

Cory:

Auckland City, in fact, put up a good fight, bowing out at 0-1. It's actually a dangerous team. In 2009, it beat the UAE host team in the first round and the African team in the fifth place match.