Up or down; which way did the Abe
administration use accounting tricks to bring the “Emergency Economic Measures”
part of the FY2012 supplemental budget to a more or less round 10 trillion? Up,
of course. Even MOF’s scanty online documents leave
it in plain view:
“Addition to the [Great East Japan
Earthquake] recovery budget for the next fiscal year 1.2685 trillion yen”
Yes, folks, the 10.2815 trillion yen FY2012
recovery budget includes 1.2685 trillion yen earmarked for the FY2013 recovery budget! If you can manage
to wrap your mind around that idea, you’ll be wondering if that’s how the Abe
administration is reportedly reducing the amount of new JGBs for the general
account in the FY2013 budget from its FY2012 budget high of 44 trillion yen. If
you are one of the many people who like what the Abe administration has been
doing so far but are uneasy about his spending proclivities, though, rest assured, recovery
money does not count one way or other towards the 44 trillion since it is not
part of the general account. Instead, it appears that the Abe administration is
going to make up for the FY2013 revenue shortfall largely with money from the sale
of Japan Post shares and other government assets. If that were all the
information that I had—and sadly, it is, unless someone pays me real money to further
dig into this—I would say that the game plan appears to be to sail through the July
House of Councillors on a tide of good economic feelings against a divided
opposition and hope that rising FY2013 tax revenues allow a significant
carryover that, together with a higher tax revenue estimate, reduces the amount
of JGBs budgeted in the FY2014 general account.
Or so it looks at first glance. Caveat
lector, I’m not a budget expert.
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