Tuesday, November 18, 2014

One Surprise in Abe’s Snap Election Announcement

Prime Minister Abe covered all the necessary bases in his televised announcement of his intent to dissolve the lower house on the 21st for a snap election except the actual election date. NHK could have done a better job to make the teleprompters less conspicuous? Is that how presumably liberal-minded production side of the institution to subtly undermine the prime minister in revenge for foisting his outspoken soul mates on them as top management and board members?

Whatever. The only surprise for me was how low Abe set the bar. He stated that he’d resign if the LDP-Komeito coalition failed to secure a majority. Dude, you guys have 326 seats between the two of you, the LDP and Komeito. You’d have to lose 88 seats to fall under the 238-seat threshold required for a majority of the 475 seats to be contested. That’s not a bar, that’s a ditch that Abe dug in the ground, claiming that he’d admit defeat if he failed to walk over it without getting himself wet. when

I predicted that the LDP-Komeito coalition would clear the 30-seat drop bar that the LDP set when they expected the July-September numbers to be far more ambiguous, and I’m sticking by that prediction. I expect a low turnout. Many independent voters will abandon the LDP, but they won’t be going to the polls, they’ll stay away. And that will help the LDP-Komeito coalition. What was a 50 meter dash with a 10 meter head start will become a 40 meter dash with a 10 meter head start.

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