…since you asked…
Bloomberg
provides an election arithmetic primer entitled “How
Low Can He Go? The Election Math for Abe to Stay in Command.” The following
are how I call ‘em, including a couple of technical corrections.
1. Simple Majority of 238
Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at
JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo, said a simple majority was so low a goal as
to be “absurd.”
Yes.
Case closed.
2. Absolute Stable Majority of 266
This number would give the ruling
coalition control of all standing committees, and thus the submission of
legislation to the Diet.
More
accurately, the ruling coalition would have better control of the legislative
process once legislation is submitted to the Diet. But it’s not like the US
Congress, where a determined chairperson could kill most bills.
3. Super Majority of 317
Abe may need a “super” majority of
317 seats in the lower house to push through legislation next year to bolster
the nation’s defense stance and enable its military to defend other countries
-- a policy opposed by more than half the population.
Such a majority allows the lower
chamber to override decisions in the upper house, where the LDP needs its
Buddhist-backed partner to make up a simple majority. The LDP has wrangled with
Komeito over reinterpreting the country’s pacifist constitution.
Wait,
Bloomberg is now talking about something different, an LDP supermajority, not a
coalition majority, since the situation being considered is a case where
Komeito won’t come along. Of course this is merely an academic exercise, since
an LDP supermajority will be achieved through a combination of Sokagakkai throwing its votes as usual to
LDP candidates in the single-seat races and a very low turnout (this time
around anyway). Such an improbable outcome will leave the LDP even more
indebted to Komeito. That’s not conducive to PM Abe getting his way on
collective self-defense and international security. In any case, it’s much more
difficult to achieve than 4…
4. More than 325 seats
Even so, a larger majority is
unlikely, said Steven Reed, professor of politics at Chuo University in Tokyo,
with the opposition parties coordinating to offer a unified alternative in many
constituencies.
Exactly.
The sum of the 2012
Lower house election votes in the regional proportional districts was comfortably
higher for the DPJ, Your Party (requiescat
in pace), and the Japan Restoration Party (now Japan Innovation Party) than
for the LDP and Komeito. The media will continue to give space to opposition criticism
of Abenomics in the two week run-up to the voting. That said, the DPJ will fail
to catch serious traction, while JIP will also languish, Toru Hashimoto being
well-past his consume-by date, which means…
5. Low Turnout
A smaller voter turnout would be
positive for the Abe administration, Shinichi Ichikawa, chief market strategist
at Credit Suisse in Tokyo, wrote in an e-mailed note on Nov. 28
Exactly.
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